DSB report on Climate Change
Last week the Defense Science Board released its study, "Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security" (175 pgs):
http://www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/reports/2...ate_Change.pdf
I have not finished reading the entire report, but it is clear from the outset that the DSB views CC as ongoing and serious, and that it accepts the "compelling evidence that climate impacts are observable, measurable, real, and having both near and long-term consequences" (p. vii).
The report has a particular focus on Africa, water and the potential for failed states.
The report also contains a detailed set of recommendations for various federal agencies (both civilian and military).
Climate Change on this thread
Misifus,
Far from predicting that "Global Warming has crept into this thread just like I predicted," you yourself raised the topic in your very first post here (pg 15, #294).
Also, others have mentioned climate change and provided supplementary links on this thread over the years, which I guess you were not aware of.
You said earlier that you confine your postings to your two areas of expertise, oil & gas being one of them. Unless climate science is the second one, you seem to have some very strong views on an area which is outside your expertise.
I provided the DSB link because their document is newly-released, thorough, and because DSB is an organization which most SWC readers probably view as credible. In short, I thought that such a document on a topic of this magnitude would be of interest to this audience.
A similar (ie. similar in that CNA, like DSB, takes CC seriously) document was issued by CNA four years ago:
http://www.cna.org/reports/climate
As for the relevance of CC to energy security, Homer-Dixon and other analysts have argued that fossil fuel depletion and CC must be viewed as "twin" problems which are interconnected and must be dealt with simultaneously.
I agree with this view, but have largely avoided posting CC issues here not because I don't think they are relevant, but because they usually receive a good deal of coverage in the mainstream media, while the issues of PO and government plans for oil shocks do not.
I posted this one because it is an indication that military analysts take CC seriously, as they do PO.
As for your dismissive point about food shortages, common sense surely warns us that CC and water problems can have direct effects on food production. So would any constriction (for whatever reason) of the availability of affordable fuel to farmers (and the rest of our food supply chain).
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Bad news re ND shale oil?
Misifus,
Perhaps you can provide an explanation for this recent and rather bleak prognosis from ND-DMR regarding future shale oil production:
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/pipeline/asse...11-10-2011.pdf
My sense was that almost everyone expected significant, sustained production increases at least throughout this decade.
But slide #3 shows production declining around 2015, and never reaching the 1 mbpd that so many people expected.
Any thoughts as to what's caused the sudden (and rather significant) change in expectations?