As usual, MSF does a great job
Stan,
I will not criticise MSF, I'm a former MSF and the saved me when I had malaria in lost place in DRC but...
They do not really know how to communicate. I believe we read the same article and I have to agree with them. But they are too often focused on the great western evil powers. They started to have a teeth against China, I have to recognise. But the Maoist heritage from Kouchner is heavy to carry and they have difficulties to throw it away.
It makes months I am trying to get them in a lost part of South Sudan where there is no health, no government, no NGO, nothing.
And they came to make a surgery assessment...
Sometimes, it's difficult to get them out of the glamorous spots. But as all the others, they need money and 2010 will be difficult.
Saying so, they did and are doing great job in all the worst places where LRA is or Jongley.
I am surprised MSF-USA (doctor without borders) did not publish it in english. But if MSF is a big familly, like in all families, they are not all good friends. :rolleyes:
Southern Sudan...Today and Tomorrow.
Nuba Mountain, South Kordafan State: 2002
Juba, Sudan 2007-08
All the comments are generally exactly correct. The situation in Sudan was once defined by one of the locals as similar to an onion; peel off one layer and you find another layer of discord, tribalism and conflict.
I was at the celebration of the opening of the SPLA HQ in 2008. President of GOSS Kiir was the speaker; most in the SPLA/M understand the aspirations of John Garang was for a united Sudan; but, what from what I understand Kirr will support an independent Southern Sudan.
This split within the "party" is the foundation for armed conflict within the tribes in the South, accurately defined as the Dinka and Neuer tribes. I might add, the Vice President of GOSS is Neuer.
The entire foundation is based on oil. The Abeyei region in the along the disputed north-south "border" is where the "money is". Even, if the south could secure that region, the oil pipeline runs north past Khartom to the Port of Sudan. The Nuba Mountains is adjacent to the pipeline and under the control of the SPLA..I was in the mountains with the 5th SPLA Front in 2002 commanded by Ismael Karmis..the governor was Abdul Azziz (he remains governor today of South Kordafar State). The SPLA would attack the pipeline daily interrupting the flow. That said, the cease fire agreement signed in late 2001 just for Nuba Mountains was designed to lay the ground work for the CPA and to stop all military action against the pipeline. Nuba Mountains actually is located in the "north"..and as such, was a critical component to the CPA signed in January of 2005.
Should the south "vote" to succeed from Sudan forming a new African state..they would have no access to ports, no pipeline, no all weather roads and surrounded by countries which may or may not support a future Southern Sudanese state (Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, DRC)
Other issues I have personal experience includes the UN initiative at DDR..De-mining, Disarm and Re-Integration (the most difficult part).
The UN's ability to organize a "true" election, plus all the other critical components is marginal at best.
And, lastly...the LRA..I absolutely agree..these guys must be killed or captured.
Sudan will be a struggle for many years to come. It was one hell of an experience....
RH
Other travels include SE Afgh/2003 and Iraq/2005..plus the Balkan Wars
a Frankenstein laboratory
Apparently not every body’s happy with the previous batch of SPLA/, sorry SPLM/A, in charge:
E. Equatoria SPLM Governorship Election Results must not be overturned by the Political Bureau
January 13, 2010 — SPLM contest for the post of Governorship in the state has been won convincingly by Comrade Louis Lobong Lojore against the incumbent Brig. Aloysius Ejotuk Emor in a contest widely believed to be transparent and fair. Comrade Louis not only beat Comrade Aloysius hand down (21 votes for Louis and 4 votes for Aloysius) but his overwhelming victory sends a strong message to Juba that people voice is a voice of God and if they determine, time or money can’t stop their march. The ball is now with the SPLM Bureau to clear Comrade Louis Lololomoe Aribokinyang without any delay or manipulation!
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33776
Lakes nominations finalized for election – Awet not chosen for governor
January 12, 2010 (RUMBEK) — The Lakes State Electoral College Committee Chairman Abraham Mayen Kuc has officially announced the SPLM candidates nominated for the post of governor and for the geographical constituences in the April 2010 nationwide election. The incumbent governor, Daniel Awet Akot, was not chosen to stand for the post.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33771
What is really interesting is not who is chosen (it does have its importance) but the on going processes of questioning actual in power former SPLA commanders capacity to rule and administrate properly the State they were given.
And for those who are nominated but already in place:
Kiir will not step down as army chief if nominated for presidential election
An official of the semi-autonomous Southern Sudan has ruled out any possibility of General Salva Kiir Mayardit stepping down from the army even if he is nominated as SPLM candidate for presidency.
The minister for Presidential Affairs, Dr. Luka Biong Deng, who is a close aide to Kiir on Wednesday, said Kiir’s candidacy would not need him to step down as commander-in-chief.
He however admitted that presently the SPLA Act states that no member of the SPLA can participate in political activities but said there will be decisions made within the regulations of southern Sudan.
The Southern Sudan interim constitution is however silent about what the aspirant candidates for political positions, while actively serving in the army, should comply with during elections.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33778
Salva Kiir formally nominated for presidency in South Sudan
The Political Bureau of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) has announced the incumbent chairman of the party, General Salva Kiir Mayardit, as the candidate for South Sudan presidency.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33788
Smells like if I loose I still can make a coup… The battle between late Garang supporters and Kiir is raging on.
Anyway, it also addresses the issue of constitution design for post conflict or conflict ending contexts.
The idea to oblige candidates to resign from their positions inside State and South Government was quite a smart move. I believe the intension was to avoid exactly what Kiir is doing. And in fact, it works in most of the States, as SPLM has nominated mainly non governors to run for elections, in order to preserve SPLM control on administration.
On the other hand you have a breakdown of continuity and a dangerous State vacancy if the actual governors do run for elections as independents (as they will in many places).
I believe there are no perfect systems. A system that would forbid anyone already in place to run for elections would not be considered as fair.
Simple questions and complex answers, as usual with Nation Building.
Building State or Building Nation? The SPLM/A challenge
Quote:
Sudan electoral board warns Salva Kiir to resign from his military position
The Sudan’s National Elections Commission (NEC) has sent a warning letter to the semi-autonomous Southern Sudan President and the region’s presidential candidate, General Salva Kiir Mayardit, to relinquish his military post in order to qualify to run for the upcoming April 2010 elections.
NEC is a national legal body established by law in 2008 in accordance with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the Interim Constitution of Sudan, 2005.
It is charged with the responsibility to process and oversee the conduct of the post-war general elections during the interim period and has established branches at Southern Sudan and states levels.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33807
It's a move, but may be not the strongest one.
Much more awaited, even if the results was known, SPLM-DC announced its candidate:
Quote:
Lam Akol runs for presidency in South Sudan
The former Sudanese foreign and head of the Sudan People Liberation Movement for Democratic Change (SPLM-DC) Lam Akol will run for the post of South Sudan president, according to a statement released by his office.
Akol was a leading figure in the legacy SPLM party but his close ties to the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) led by president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir has alienated his colleagues at the ex-Southern rebel group.
Akol has insisted at the time that the SPLM partnership with the NCP is particularly valuable and also campaigned in favor of the Sudanese President after the issuance by the International criminal Court of an arrest warrant against him.
The alliance expressed support to Bashir candidacy for president of the country.
“President Al Bashir is the only person to sign working peace agreement in Southern Sudan, Darfur, and the Eastern Region….. El Bashir was also credited with stopping wars and the bloodshed which had plagued the nation for so long. Also the inclusive administration instituted by President Al Bashir already is a good step for political pluralism and social and cultural diversity. Mr. Bashir is the very one now working to implement democratic transformation and as it was embodied in the interim Constitution of the country and the CPA and he should be given the chance to continue with this”.
“Bashir has to be given the chance to complete the implementation of the CPA and the other agreement which he had signed while serving current term. Many challenges remain and the alliance of Southern Political partied believes it is only Al Bashir who can overcame the challenges that remain in implementing the peace agreements”.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33797
Now, the real question is being asked. And it shows how much SPLM is not comfortable with those elections.
Quote:
Should Dr. Lam be allowed to campaign in South Sudan?
In the SPLM-DC nomination statement, Gurtong reports the Secretary of SPLM-DC Charles Kisanga as saying that “there have been big complains and protests from the members of the Alliance of Southern Sudan political parties operating in the Southern Sudan, that they had not been able to file candidates for many constituencies due to intimidation, bullying and arrests by SPLM security forces.” What Mr. Kisanga means by “SPLM security forces” is not clear.
However, this statement raises the question of whether Dr. Lam Akol will be free to campaign in South Sudan against Gen. Kiir or not. South Sudan Minister of Cabinet Affairs Dr. Luka Manoja instructed the Governors of ten states in South Sudan last year to allow all political parties, except SPLM-DC, in the South to conduct their activities freely. SPLM allegedly accused SPLM-DC of being the armed resistance movement that does not qualify to be a political party.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33804
I love the subtile differenciation between SPLM and SPLM-DC. As far as I know, SPLM is the political wing of a rebelion militia (well the agregate of it).
Transition from a military organization to a political one is always a challenge for rebels in Nation Building. South America experiences tend to show that such organizations are not capable to do it.
Other African experiences tend to show that the transition is only in surface (see what happened in Zimbabwe).
In South Sudan, the difference pointed out by Sufferedbeetle between State Building and Nation Building takes all its sense. Those elections are the first step to the referendum which will be a pure Nation Building exercise. Those elections are a State building exercise per definition but also a Nation Building exercise in the sense that South (At least SPLM/A) will have to reveal its true face.
Is SPLM/A are Nation representative machine or just a militia gang as too many others? Will SPLM/A accept to build a Nation with all its political diversities and accept to be challenged?
Will South be able to build its future out of the war?
Accepting SPLM-DC campaign will be the proof that SPLM can live without Khartoum. That South Sudan as a Nation is something that does exist further than the "my hamster grazing rights" claim or policy (to use Wilf definition).
The main danger in Nation Building is to build a fake apparatus that will just hide the real roots of the tensions. The temptation is high to just place people you have the habit to deal with and not address the real questions. Stabilization in Nation Building is not just addressing the on going small scale conflicts but it's also building a process that allows to prevent up coming conflicts.
And China converted to State building
First the next episode of the elections and Salva Kiir legal prblems:
Quote:
Gen. Salva Kiir should relinquish his military position
The SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum was quoted by a local newspaper, The Juba Post, as saying that his party’s chairman will step down from being the army chief as the law requires.
Amum also added that the party’s candidate for the position of the President at the national level, Yasir Saeed Arman, will also resign from his current position as party’s Deputy Secretary General for Northern Sector and focus on the presidential campaigns.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33843
The list of the candidates for South Sudan:
Uper Nile: Simon Kun Puoc (SPLM); NO (NCP)
Unity: Taban Deng (SPLM); Paul Leli (NCP)
Warrap: Nyandeng Malek Deliec (SPLM); Mayur Akeli (NCP)
Jonglei: Kuol Manyang Juuk (SPLM); Josepgh Dower Jacob (NCP)
Eastern Equatoria: Louis Lobong Lojore (SPLM); Andalla Albert (NCP)
Central Equatoria: Clement Wani Konga (SPLM);James Luro (NCP)
Lakes: Chol Tong Mayay (SPLM); Thomas Pan Melik (NCP)
Northern Bahr El-Ghazal: Paul Malong Awan (SPLM); Joseph Ajwang (NCP)
Western Bahr El-Ghazal: Rizig Zakaria Hassan (SPLM); Steven Musa (NCP)
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33840
Interresting but not suprising, NCP is not even trying in Upper Nile. Must say that Malakal is not really a pro NCP place. In 2009 combats between former SAF militia lead by Gabriel Tang and SPLA killed 50 and wounded 100. In 2006 combats between the same killed more than 100.
But that was hard breach of the CPA by the way…
Then the next episode of China takes over the world and becomes a Western like power:
Quote:
China may send observers for Sudan’s April election
Abdalla Ahmed Abdalla, Deputy Chairman of the National Election Commission, met recently with the Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China Li Chengwen. They discussed "preparations for arrival of a Chinese delegation to participate in the monitoring of the coming elections in Sudan," according to the official Sudan News Agency (SUNA).
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33833
Please welcome the State building "a la chinoise". Elections are fake? So let's go! I love when we basically are morally shooting our selves in the foot and end up with a brain damage! :cool:
And we passed the FUBAR point
Quote:
Sudan’s peace partners failed to reach agreement over parliamentary seats
SPLM wanted more seats for the South in the National Assembly in order to make it possible to block any future attempt to amend the constitution by the elected national parliament which might affect the gains of the CPA in the South or the conduct of referendum itself.
Southern Sudan officials have however observed that NCP had become more intransigent after learning that the SPLM had distanced itself from forging an alliance with it during the upcoming April elections.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33906
When two liars are accusing each others:
Quote:
Khartoum paper prints ‘nonsense’ on Blue Nile troop build-up, says SPLA
January 25, 2010 (RUMBEK) – The Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) Official Spokesman, Maj-Gen. Kuol Deim Kuol, today denied that the South Sudan army is building up forces in Blue Nile State. He was responding to a news article printed in Akhir Lahza.
"This is all nonsense," said the SPLA spokesman in reply. "SPLA is not present in Blue Nile, all our troop are in Northern Upper Nile at Gupa — you see Sudan Armed Forces’s problem is that they mix up borders, and the fact is that the border is not demarcated."
He suggested the problem was perhaps a matter of border demarcation and called upon the Khartoum government to demarcate the borders. "Where is the border between Upper Nile state and Blue Nile state demarcated?" he asked.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33907
I love that! South Sudan is basically a country with moving borders. The border in the South is being discussed. The border in the North also. Wait, they also are negociating for the border with Ethiopia…
The base of a Nation is… A Land, People and an army? Well I guess they have the people, the army but are still missing the Land. At least the limits of their Land.
But North is not in rest about lies…
Quote:
Sudan rejects US allegations of masterminding weapons flow to South
“We heard today from the U.N. that it is not just small arms but some heavier munitions that seem to be flowing in,” Rice said. “We weren’t given specifics on that. But we have seen, in the violence that is taking place in the South, a higher degree of sophistication and lethality of the weapons employed, and that’s a source of concern”.
The American official said that Washington believed some of the weapons were coming from northern Sudan.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33929
Some are also coming from other places, that's for sure. But saying that North are not supplying weapons to the South… Between some and all there is a difference. Just like between some and none.
The elections: going officially fake?
Quote:
NCP endorses Kiir for South Sudan presidency, calls on SPLM to reciprocate
The NCP’s presidential adviser Ali Tamim Fartak told Reuters that the decision not to field a candidate for president of the south, which will vote on January 9, 2011 on independence, was to “maintain a good partnership” with the SPLM.
“And we hope the SPLM will do the same by withdrawing their candidate for the president of the republic,” Fartak said.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33928
Truth is also that in many places, NCP, like any other parties, except SPLM, has not been able to register its candidates. For unknown reasons they did not have the paper work…
The elections can be fair and transparent, if there is only one candidate for each post…
This really questions the concept of elections in post conflict countries. Especially if there is a possibility to end up the conflict just by splitting the place in several pieces.
Not that union is really an option actually but somehow, it should be impossible to come to such end.
We are clearly in a Nation destructuration process now. And it has been endorsed by both parties.
But while China is trying to be democratic… India is not loosing its objective:
Quote:
Sudan, India discuss energetic cooperation
Indian Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, Shri Murli Deora arrived yesterday to Khartoum met today with his Sudanese counterpart Al-Zubair Ahmed Al-Hassan, to review progress on the existing projects and discuss ways to expand it.
ONGC’s overseas arm of the state-owned ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) has a 24.125 per cent stake in Sudan’s Block 5A. OVL also has a 25 per cent stake in Sudan’s Greater Nile Oil Project (Block 1, 2 and 4), which produces 280,000 bpd.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33910
War among the SPLM: when the party is fighting among its people ;)
Quote:
SPLM warns against contesting as independent candidates
The Chairman of the SPLM Youth League and member of the party’s Political Bureau, Akol Paul Kordit, announced on Tuesday that the party would not allow any of its members to stand as independent candidates.
Three senior officials of the party have officially declared their independent candidacy for governorship. These include Southern Sudan President’s advisor on Diplomatic Affairs, Alfred Lado Gore for Central Equatoria state, the state minister of Energy and Mining in the Government of National Unity, Angelina Jany Teny for Unity state and the incumbent governor of Eastern Equatoria state, Aloysius Emor Ojetuk.
Jonglei state was also reported to have been processing for an independent candidacy for governorship while many others across the region considered contesting for parliamentary seats as independent candidates.
There are growing fears in the SPLM leadership that many of the candidates nominated by the Political Bureau in Juba may lose elections to independent party candidates who were initially nominated by the people and the Electoral Colleges in the states, but dropped by the Bureau.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33916
SPLM is falling in the old one party trappe. We are supporting the construction of an African China like both in South and North. Well, Uganda and Rwanda are the model for South and they are not really democratically open. Sometimes, I really wonder if we do have a memory. Enlightened dictatorship were the failed solution of the 70th. Now we are building sustainable dictatorship... Could someone explain me what is the difference?
BECAUSE WE CAN'T FORGET: day 100 for ICRC hostages
First of all, some quick comments on the AU meeting and the Sudan question:
[
Quote:
B]Jean Ping redoute le chaos au Soudan
[/B]Est ce que l’indépendance du sud Soudan ne va pas amener les autres acteurs au Darfour et ailleurs à demander comme le Sud Soudan une indépendance qu’il ne demande pas aujourd’hui etc etc. Alors si ce scenario catastrophe qui j’espère n’arrivera pas se produit alors nous sommes partis dans une situation de chaos.
http://www.gaboneco.com/show_article.php?IDActu=16751
As usual, Mr Ping is asking the million dollars question: what would be the consequences of South Sudan independence on the Darfur conflict?
Will Sudan become an African Poland? Basically, a never ending source of conflicts in the future. Looking at European History shows quickly that splitting a country is several pieces just does not work.
CPA was meant to bring peace but partiction, especially as South is not capable to administrate itself, is a trigger puller "en puissance".
Like in the Wild Wild West, civilization comes with the train? It looks like a bad remake of a Sergio Leones film. But what are the other options?
Developing transport in South Sudan is vital for the economy. But the real question is linking what with who?
Train is may be the best idea for macro development, but the real challenge is at micro level. Yes South Sudan needs a big communication way to export the oil (Not refined in South by the way) but what South needs first is real roads to link cities together. What is the use to put efforts on agriculture if the targeted market is export? Once again, the logic of State Building is driven by the necessity to build the centralized administration apparatus seen as the key to stability. But the best key for stability is first to have a self sufficient country. As long as South will depend on imports for basic food: the conflict possibility will be there.
The people… Big heads seems to always forget that part of the Clausewitz trinity: the people. Elections do not keep quiet the people as efficiently as a full belly… State Building needs a major reform and needs to look at the people as THE KEY actor rather than a ex nihilo empowered intelligencia and elite which get its legitimacy from international economical and political interest rather than from popular legitimacy. David Kilcullen was already pointing this bias several years ago…
Quote:
Sudan/Chad: almost 100 days of ordeal for abducted staff members Gauthier Lefèvre and Laurent Maurice
This Saturday, 30 January, will mark 100 days of captivity for our colleague Gauthier. For Laurent the ordeal will also last 100 days unless he's freed before 17 February. We are continuing to do everything we can to bring about the safe and rapid release of our colleagues. We are in contact with the abductors and with the national and local authorities and are following developments closely.
Our hearts go out to our colleagues and their families. ICRC staff, not only in our Geneva headquarters but all over the world, have shown great support and deep concern throughout this crisis.
And let me insist: we will continue to do everything we can, for as long as is necessary, to bring about the safe and rapid release of Gauthier and Laurent.
http://www.cicr.org/web/eng/siteeng0...terview-290110
Because it makes 100 days and we cannot forget them.
For all the soft rebels with a cause: Keep on fighting!
justice in south sudan: the state building challenge...
Back from several weeks of rest, I will try to restart slowly this threat. Before jumping in the dark waters of the electoral process in South Sudan and its war potential, I will just have a comment on the problematic of justice in State Building.
Quote:
’Calm’ returns to Jonglei’s Twic East after sectional fighting
Hand axes, spears and other metal weapons claimed lives and caused injuries in the Wangulei clashes. Guns were not used on Thursday or the death toll could have been different, witnesses say, crediting government disarmament efforts with residents of Twic East and neighboring counties ending last month.
Both Dacuek and Ayual are contesting ownership of Wangulei Payam center and cattle camps in the Toch (wetland between the River Nile tributaries) west of Nyuak. The case, which had never before caused inter-sectional clashes, was brought before the county authority and a seven-judge committee was formed to deal with it. According to officials, the jury declared that three cattle camps in the Toch belong to Dacuek while the payam headquarters at Wangulei is government-owned. There are more than 3 cattle camps in the Toch. This means that the two sections could share the dry season grazing land as usual as well as the Payam center.
Ayual disputed the court’s verdict and decided to appeal. Then, in an incident that is said to have sparked the fighting, a dancing Dacuek youth started caning an Ayual woman at the Payam center on Thursday and subsequently confronted anyone siding with her, according to attendants of victims of the clashes being nursed here in Bor.
An account from Dacuek side is totally reversed: it claims that Ayual attacked the Dacuek on Thursday evening when they were dancing in Wangulei. Those who talked to the Sudan Tribune from Ayual explained that the court’s decision giving Dacuek three cattle camps of Guar, Pathoor and Pakat is unacceptable. As for Wangulei, Ayual say the government’s ownership should not prevent them from exercising traditional land rights. Ayual strongly denied igniting the clashes that killed three people from their side. A fourth man, also from Ayual, was killed 2 days before the inter-sectional feuding and relatives say his death is related to the latest fight.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34142
This brief article shows quite well how it’s difficult to implement justice in a new “built from scratch” country.
What we have to really get is that justice is not really what people are looking for and at when we talk about justice in state building. In that particular case, the problem lies on who will access cattle camps. The justice decision is a matter of life and death for the people who are concerned. It seems a little disproportionate when you think about it: we are talking about cows…
But this is probably one of the reasons implementing justice becomes so complicate (even before going to the problematic of rule of law and social contract…). What are seen as simple, easy cases for us are in deed explosive issue. A little like every time a cop issues a ticket you end up with a gun fight. One of the main problematic is the concept of independent justice. In most of the State Building manuals, it is recommended to go for traditional justice. His does have good points:
1) the justice apparatus is recognized by everybody
2) the justice apparatus and the judges reflects the society
3) justice is provided through a common and shared base
But it does have bad points:
1) it is not an “impartial” justice based on legal texts. Then you end up with too classical modern/traditional justice opposition
2) judges are not always competent and justice is some times (most of the time in fact) resumed to corruption or formal like immediate justice
3) there are no inter communities formal judicial process
I do not have the solution for this, but one of the many mistakes I have seen and am witnessing is to give judicial authority to traditional authorities without even taking time to train them, knowing which judicial system is being empowered and judges’ limits of competencies.
The other problematic that this case is clearly the State capacity to impose inter ethnic justice decision. Training police and building up police capacities always seems to be the last wheel of the car. In South Sudan, most of the policemen are “old” or “incapable” former military guys. The first real training I have seen took place few months ago, 4 years after the peace agreement was signed. And that is may be where the problem lies.
State building aim to build a civil owned State but basically the civil capacity of “states to be” is built as the last resource or last solution. For 4 years SPLA stand (and keep on standing) on the position that police is not a military activity. The rational behind is 100% right but what I do not get is why the international community did not put more efforts on building the police capacities. In resume, why spend so much time and efforts to build rule of law if there are no efforts being put on building law enforcement capacity?
And one good news (for once) :
One ICRC hostage is free :):):)
For humanitarian reasons...
But one is still keept in captivity! :mad:
For all the soft rebel with a cause: keep on fighting men!
After more than 20 years of conflict in Sudan
U.S. Conventional Weapons Destruction Program Helps Sudan Overcome Legacies of War
Quote:
The
Office of Weapons Removal and Abatement in the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs has been helping the Sudanese people in the Nuba Mountains region, in Kassala State, Blue Nile State, and throughout much of South Sudan to confront these threats with nearly $20 million in humanitarian mine action and small arms/light weapons destruction assistance since 2005 as part of the U.S. Conventional Weapons Destruction (CWD) Program in Sudan.
Sudan challenges to be addressed
An interresting analyses of EU policy and forseen challenges:
EU policy in Sudan, 2010-2011
The European Union is closely following the evolution of the situation as the current events could lead to a resumption of the conflict between North and South, that in the past claimed two million lives and displaced four million persons in the region and abroad. Although the conflict in Darfur is still not solved, and there are other dormant conflicts in the East, Kordofan, Blue Nile, Nuba mountains and the North, resumption of the North – South conflict would have dire consequences. The instability of Sudan means instability for the region and possible fuelling of other regional conflicts, with important security and humanitarian consequences.
Currently four scenarios can be envisaged for Southern Sudan post 2011 : forced unity, forced secession, agreed unity and agreed secession. While the first two will certainly lead to the resumption of war between North and South, agreed unity may result in the implosion of the South. The scenario for agreed secession, the most likely option if the referendum is respected, has to be closely accompanied by coherent and unified approach of the international community in order to ensure a viable transition.
For the past five years, implementation of the provisions of the CPA has been delayed and within the next 12 months, Sudan’s future as a country will be decided. Before the expiry of the CPA in July 2011 and bearing in mind the high risk of the resumption of hostilities, we are faced with the following choices :
1. To seek a global solution to Sudan’s conflicts, by negotiating an additional protocol for the CPA, which would allow for the postponement of national elections by 6 months to a year. Within this time frame, a permanent cease fire would be put in place in Darfur, allowing for the inclusion of Darfur’s population in the elections. There would have to be a change in the laws to provide for free and fair elections, and allow for post 2011 referendum arrangements. This would have to be ensured by a coherent and unified international community approach (3) .
2. To address issues separately, to continue with the elections timeframe, to support the 2011 referendum and to focus on post-2011 referendum arrangements. Separately, to work on the negotiation of a Darfur ceasefire and peace agreement, and advance from there on the preparation of a conducive environment for the next elections. This implies a unified IC approach, and a “carrot-and- stick” policy for North and South to prevent the resumption of hostilities.
3. To delink the presidential elections from the CPA and from the referendum. The elections would be postponed until a conducive environment is in place – within a reasonable time frame - while support would be given to measures going in that direction, independent from the referendum. The referendum and post-referendum arrangements based on interdependence would be supported (5) , win-win strategies would be developed for collaboration between North and South, and development and governance in Southern Sudan would be supported to prevent it from being born as a failed state.
Promote a settlement on Darfur with the utmost urgency.
http://www.affaires-strategiques.inf...hp?article2963
They wanted to post pound but it did not happen
Quote:
Sudan opposition want elections moved to November, slams UNMIS official
A number of presidential candidates in Sudan has jointly called on the April elections to be postponed by seven months till next November and submitted a proposed formation for the National elections committee (NEC).
The Umma Party runner for president Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi hosted a meeting at his residence in Omdurman agreed on steps that need to be taken for achieving democratic transformation and establishing an "impartial" board to monitor the work of the NEC in terms of administration and finances, creating a body consisting of presidential nominees with rotating head, rescheduling elections to resolve a number outstanding issues.
The ruling National Congress Party (NCP) representative at the summit Ibrahim Ghandour promised to convey the demands to president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir and arrange a meeting with them to discuss their requests.
Absent from the meeting were the candidates from the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) Yasir Arman, Democratic Unionist Party Hatim Al-Sir, Sudan Communist Party Mohamed Ibrahim Nugud. It was not immediately clear why they did not attend.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34416
This has been the big debate for the past weeks. But finally, NEC decided to have the election in April as planned.
During that time campaign goes as planed: free, fair and through debate:
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Biemnom MP assassinated in Juba
March 14, 2010, (KHARTOUM) — Honorable Bol Deng Kot was slain by unknown uniformed men on Wednesday, March 10, resulting in condemnation by authorities and the citizenry of Biemnon county of the southern state of Unity.
Honorable Bol Deng Kot was a member of parliament in the regional legislative assembly in Juba, representing Biemnom constituency as a member of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement.
Without the endorsement of the SPLM Political Bureau, he chose to stand as an independent candidate. But his popularity in the area compelled SPLM leadership to promise him a parliamentary seat from among the 40 seats allocated to SPLM after the latest negotiations with the ruling National Congress Party.
http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/...RecordId=32438
SPLM is quite tuff on independant candidates all over the place. It is clear that the transition from military to political organisation and the possibility to face electoral defeat is difficult for them.
South America has shown that former military organisations have the tendancy to loose elections. And the temptation to resolve that probem through force is high.
An interresting report from NRC
http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/...anDisaster.pdf
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The border is not set and it does create problems. Last week the SPLA have announced that nomads from North did attack a SPLA out post in the border area.
(French media link below)
http://lci.tf1.fr/filnews/monde/accr...s-5770152.html
securing elections or securing the results: the state to be dilema
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South Sudan army accused of killing and raping civilians in C. Equatoria
March 23, 2010 (JUBA) – Southern Sudan army, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) has been accused of killing and raping civilians in Central Equatoria state.
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Government reshuffle in Lakes brings two spy men into power
March 22, 2010 (RUMBEK) – Five new county commissioners were appointed in Lakes state by presidential decree of the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS). Two of the appointees have served in special security branches.
In the new decree No. 32/3/2010, President Salva Kiir Mayardit relieved five commissioners, two state advisors and the state finance minister. He was acting on the recommendation of the caretaker governor to relieve the officials.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34516
The same is happening in many other Sates, especially when they are deployed in rural areas to secure potential threatening ethnic groups. The same with the State representatives. The caretakers have for mandate to secure the elections.
This shows and enlight all the difficulty of “securing” elections in a country when the government is temptated to use “quiete terror” as political campaign tool.
The military coup is going on and SPLA is placing its minutemen…
On the other side…
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Bashir issues expulsion warning to foreign poll observers
March 22, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — The Sudanese president Omar Hassan al-Bashir today issued a strong warning to foreign election monitors threatening to expel them if they call for delaying the polls scheduled for April.
The warning appears directed at the US based Carter Center which last week called for a slight delay in elections because of logistical and procedural issues.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34508
Franckly, a slight delay for logistic reason is reasonable but would mean no elections before 2011…
