Sacred cows make the best burgers.
A spirited and heated thread. I have no visibility of what is going on in the PMs, just that there are many of those, too.
Points are strongly felt and generally professionally presented on both sides, despite the passion behind them. At risk of violating my content-agnostic personna when logged in under this identity, I have to say that I tend to support those who prop up Kilcullen. Nevertheless, I am also concerned that we are on the brink of some FM bashing. I, for one, appreciate his voice even as I disagree with it. I know the answer to cold fusion and world hunger is not on d-n-i net. It still makes me think. Plus everyone is all lathered up and writing good stuff here in reply.
My two cents -- the debate is welcome (even if one-sided), our charter is that contrarian viewpoints are welcome (even if unpopular), the tone has been largely civil, rock on. Happy god damn new year.
There's nothing that will replace a lifetime of PME. But it needs some cliff notes to get it rolling out of the mental cobwebs at the tip of the spear. Praise be to both. Kilcullen's 28 to me is sort of like the model T of COIN theory. Not perfect, available only in black, but darn good and reaching folks that weren't served before.
Carrots, sticks and ... elephants?
Hi Bill,
I think you've got a really good point here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Bill Moore
I would love to hear some ideas/recommendations from the council on ways to get a quid pro quo from the local populace in return for our good deeds? I heard one from my boss recently where he recommends encouraging an amnesty program, but an insurgent/terrorist can't get amnesty without turning in at least one other insurgent. This betrayal tactic prevents him going back to the insurgency, so he has a vested interest in seeing the government win (this closes the revolving door, and really goes back to you either with us or against us). However, amnesty isn't a carrot like building a well, so what do we reasonably demand in exchange for digging a well, building a road, etc.? How do we enforce it? I know it is situation specific, but any ideas will generate further ideas that will our guys deployed.
On the amnesty program, I really think it would be counter-productive in that form. Make them take an oath on the Quran (get a local Imam to do the exact wording). It seems that a lot of the local AIF people are fighting in kinship groups, and most kin groups will be happy to have people in both camps (maximizes overall survival chances). Requiring a "betrayal", however, goes against honour.
On the quid pro quo for wells etc., why do you need one? The ideal QPQ is in the form of IO ops. I'll admit that this hasn't been done that wel so far, but that is because there have been serious problems in developing coherent, theatre wide IO campaigns. For example, put verses of the Quran on wells and schools and, if the insurgents blow them up, start rumour campaigns about heresy (NB: in Islam, you are not allowed to deface or destroy a Quaranic quotation).
Marc