Give thanks after you read the study
Steve,
I did a quick read of the RAND study, and I find it supports my arguments. I look forward to reading the Case Studies in Development later.
The RAND study was published in 2003, and it described the economic development in the Southern Philippines overall as a dismal failure because it was grossly under resourced ($6.00/per person), most of the aid went to the Christian population (not the target population), and that the government of the Philippines is corrupt through and through. It did site a couple of "minor" successes regarding banana plantations, where it gave "some" guerrillas an alternative life style via providing jobs.
However, the fact of the matter is that the insurgency is still alive and well today in the Southern Philippines, and most of the economic development projects have failed. Different perspectives will give you different views. On one hand if you listen to Philippine and USG representatives they'll tell point out individual successes, and then if you talk to the Muslim Filipinos who live there, especially the ones not touched by these relatively micro successes, they'll tell you another story.
Let's say you have 100,000 disenfranchised citizens who are active or passive supporters of the insurgency, and your economic development actually provides jobs for 5,000 of them. That makes for 5,000 folks who are more content (perhaps), and some kodak moments for your next brief, but you still 95,0000 disenfranchised folks who are active supporters of the insurgency.
Not necessarily bad, because now you can point to the 5,000 and say if you quit fighting we'll do the same for you, BUT YOU BETTER BE READY TO DELIVER. As the study pointed out, if you give them rising expectations, but fail to deliver you will actually have made the problem worse with your false promises. This is exactly the failed economic aid I saw in Iraq, a number of promises made that never could be realized until we first established security by suppressing the insurgency.
As the study stated, its focus was "inhibiting a resurgence" of violence, not defeating an insurgency. That is completely different than what we were discussing earlier. You were implying you could use economic development to defeat an insurgency, and I disagreed and still do unless the root cause of that insurgency is "simply" economics, and that is rarely the case.
The study also confirmed that poverty doesn't cause terrorism, but it may contribute to it. My previous point, if the issue that they're fighting over isn't economic disparity, then why waste time and our precious resources on economic development to begin with? Furthermore, if the economic development isn't synched with the plan (and used as a carrot and stick), then it is going to fail.
I'm letting this thread die from my side, so in summary, economic development isn't something you do independently of the counterinsurgency effort, and there are more risks associated with doing economic development poorly than not at all. COIN is political warfare, and if you employ economic development as a leverage tool versus a handout, then "maybe" you can make a difference with it, but only if you really know what you're doing.
development or spending money?
As a current student and former military instructor of Economics, I appreciate you entertaining my mandatory ILE blog.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Bill Moore
Furthermore, if the economic development isn't synched with the plan (and used as a carrot and stick), then it is going to fail.
so in summary, economic development isn't something you do independently of the counterinsurgency effort, and there are more risks associated with doing economic development poorly than not at all. COIN is political warfare, and if you employ economic development as a leverage tool versus a handout, then "maybe" you can make a difference with it, but only if you really know what you're doing.
Economic development is much more than spending money as Bill Moore adeptly points out. Economic systems are absolutely about the synchronized objective, but the scope of the problem is even larger than this discussion has so far touched on as it encompasses almost every conceivable LOO or LOE.
Economic development cannot succeed most efficiently in the absence of property rights, a known and predicitable means of settling disputes and some basis for enforcing contracts. These speak to a challenge greater than security - a functioning legal (not police) system.
In this one man's humble opinion, MM12 simply asked how to best spend his money which is a far cry from the benefits and difficulties of imposing free market capitalism in the context of an English common law judicial system on a tribal Muslim culture. I have to agree with one John Nagl's points that economic development within our current COIN doctrine is equivalent to changing a society.
I certainly admire, but don't envy MM12 for attacking either problem. Thanks for your service and keep up the good fight.
Major Adam Albrich, student CGSC, Belvoir satellite campus
"The views expressed in this "insert type" are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government."
MAJ Albrich, what are ...
the "benefits" (if any) of "imposing free market capitalism in the context of an English common law judicial system on a tribal Muslim culture." ?
The "difficulties" of attempting that are self-evident.
I do agree with this:
Quote:
from brich
Economic development cannot succeed most efficiently in the absence of property rights, a known and predicitable means of settling disputes and some basis for enforcing contracts. These speak to a challenge greater than security - a functioning legal (not police) system.
although removing the words "most efficiently" would cause no uproar from me. I know of no functioning economic sytem that is absent some form of property rights, a known and predictable means of settling disputes and some basis for enforcing contracts - whether it be individualistic, collectivistic or tribal - including Astan's thriving poppy trade.