Attacking Ms Bhutto - a comment
It seems a smaller explosion drew the cameras' attention to the second, larger and more destructive one. How does that sound David?
I'm curious to know how close Bhutto was to being killed, and what the effect of that might have been. She may be meeting destiny anyway in the coming weeks and months, but what would her death do to Pakistan across the longer term?
From JCustis
There has now been an explosion in news reporting and comment.
The original reporting suggested two explosions, one originating from a parked vehicle and the other by a suicide bomber. Now it is reported two suicide bombers, with several heads recovered. In Benazir Bhutto's TV speech she stressed why had the street lights gone out just before the attack and so reduced her security. Latest reports are that her security "stood firm" and stopped the second bomber. A bomber with 14 kilos of explosive, so a large bomb (true Stan?).
The slow passage of the her convoy through packed crowds is hardly an easy task for securing any VIP movement, let alone in Pakistan where the threat was so high. Hence the use of the high platform armoured truck and the lucky timing she was on the toilet at the time of the attack. The loss of lighting at the time of the attack suggests - to this "armchair" commentator - that the attackers timed the attack at the location - without sight of the target!
Ms Bhutto was lucky this time. I am no bomb expert, would she have survived sitting high up in an armoured truck? Let alone any secondary explosions - with shrapnel etc. I had the impression the cameras noted the first smaller and then went to the larger vehicle fireball - a secondary explosion (as reported now, not initially).
On the camera aspect now. After five hours slow progress and several camera teams in the convoy further back - the first explosion would alert the cameramen. Did they note the street lighting failure?
The death of Benazir Bhutto would mean her party, PPP, would have no leader and little popular appeal to the electorate - in the parliamentary elections due in January 2008. She is the "glue" holding it together and probably the chief reason the PPP gets funding (a proportion from abroad).
Dispite all her faults I feel her murder would make secular and parliamentary politics very difficult to sustain in Pakistan. As Nawaz Sharif has been excluded from Pakistan - what choice would the Pakistani voter have? Very little. Musharraf's party has little credibility.
Campaigning for Ms Bhutto in the election campaign now becomes problematical. No more "pressing the flesh" and public kept back at meetings.
If the state / party cannot protect such a figure as Ms Bhutto, will anyone else come forward?
In a perverse way given that the secular parties have substantial support and few Pakistanis want to see a Taliban like regime - the murder of Ms Bhutto could strengthen secular rule - if someone takes the lead. Not Musharraf!
davidbfpo
Pretty obvious what Al Qaeda's stake is
Al Qaeda has one visible route today to world power and their aim to reinstate the Caliphate, which is the game plan they tried to ignite with the 9-11 attacks. That is to take over Pakistan, and by doing so gain control of the army and its nuclear weapons. (No I don't believe Musharraf's declarations Pakistan's nukes are secure in the event of a transition for one second.)
That is why they must either kill Bhutto and terrorize her supporters into acquiescence or drive her out of the country and cause her supporters to give up. (If they were smart they'd kill her and her family wherever they are and I'll bet they want to.) Musharraf is the inheritor of Zia's army support, and that was built by catering to the Islamists. They know it, and know that he owes his throne to them.
If Al Qaeda loses decisively in Pakistan and gets wiped out there, then their day is done. But it doesn't look like that now. Knowing that Musharraf has sided against them, they are playing the brinksmanship game as only fanatics can do. Watch that one carefully. Al Qaeda doubtless has already made plans for how they will deploy Pakistan's nukes. And they're the kind of fanatics that believe that a good muslim will be happy to die for the cause and bad muslim should be killed because he's in the way.
The game in Pakistan is the big game. Personally, I don't think Bhutto has a chance, although I wholeheartedly support her. Here constituency is not militant, they are mostly sheep who want nice lives and hope to be cared for by a parental state figure. (This tendency is the great hobgoblin of the developing world.)
Red Circles and Dead Opium Merchants
I'm trying to compose a poem about red circles drawn on a map of Paki nukes in anticipation of a successful fundamentalist coup but the real key to Paki stability is cut off Taliban funding via disrupting the opium flow/cash, so to my hammer and tongs way of thinking, the SFers and other 'crews' need to be hunting a different kind of prey. A late night thought anyway......
yes, we're not discussing this enough...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
tequila
Things are not looking good.
Agreed--in fact, I think they're looking very bad. Judging from some of the arrests that are now being reported (including Gen. Hameed Gull, the former head of ISI) there are already serious splits in the national security establishment.
The fact that martial law seems to have been imposed over an issue of Musharraf's personal power (the impending Supreme Court ruling on his reelection) rather than on an issue of policy or principle is likely to further fracture his military support base--and, for that matter, sap the willingness of individual soldiers to fight regime opponents, including pro-Taliban elements in the FATA.
Call me a wet blanket but
I think Al Qaeda is going to get Pakistan. I've thought that for quite a while. If they don't it will be because they have a dictator. Unfortunately, our nation is pretty darn lacking in realpolitik thinking these days on both sides of the aisle.
Things are going to get pretty interesting for the next president. (And the American public.)