I started to laugh at wilf's quip, then...
Ken jumped in and caught me laughing then whipped me back into professional shape. I need this every now and then as many out there probably know. I have been lost ever since I gave up command and no longer have the benefit of a CSM as battle-buddy and keeping his colonel straight.
But back to the thread; I wonder if Dave D might comment on whether or not Dr Kilkullen ever mentioned or was it discussed at this conference the deteriorating situation of the American Army to the point, if not already there, of breaking? We tend to treat the American Army (and marines?) in all of these analyses in a clinical manner; like they both are unaffected masses that will just keep happily rolling on with no effect at all on them.
(thanks ken, but wilf you did have me rolling)
Wilf can be funny. Frequently is -- but
he sometimes pushes the envelope. I guess we all do on occasion. I just tend to encourage avoiding personalizing the argument and being too dismissive of the opinion of others. We all, me included, err on that occasionally. Not a good medium for that IMO.
I am not sharing my poncho liner -- you guys keep trying to hog the covers... :D
On a more serious note, Dave will have to speak to Dr. Kilcullen, of course. However I'd suggest the Army and Marines are far from unaffected but are also far from broken. I may be wrong but my sensing is that there'll be a slow drawdown for a couple or three years and then the residual force, maybe three BCTs (+), will be there for a long time. As in real long...
Thus I rather tranquilly await Iraqi restaurants on the streets of Barstow, the Springs, El Paso, Hinesville and Killeen (to go with the Afghan models in Clarksville, Jacksonville, Fayetteville and Watertown)... ;)
If I may be so presumptuous...
as to advance a couple of questions to muddy the water...
What is the desired endstate when the clock runs out? Put another way, what are the "right" conditions and circumstances for say, Iraq, at the end of all this that will put the pottery pieces back together with sufficient glue?
Are the "right" conditions in your mind at odds with what you understand the administration's desired endstate to be? Furthermore, is the administration's endstate clear anymore? I know we have heard and can say that it involves a sovereign Iraq, with security for the civilian populace, and the rule of law in place and supported by law enforcement, courts, etc., but what the hell does that REALLY mean?
I know I've beat this drum at length already, but how do the recent events in Basrah/Sadr City square with the desired endstate? I look at the stunts that Sadr has pulled recently and I ask myself, It's great that he supposedly convinced his followers to be non-violent, but why is he allowed to retain so much stroke?
I also look at the Maliki government, the response in Basrah, the acts of some of the police commandos, and ask What next dude? It's beginning to be your show, but all I'm hearing are boos. What will we be doing when the fractures become worse in say, another year when something happens in Kurdistan (I can't crystal ball that anything would, but I use that area to illustrate my point)? What will we be doing if the purported Iranian influence in the south gets worse? We are laying the blame squarely at the feet of the Iranians in the recent testimony, but what's the foot-stomp? Is it a dull saber rattle, or part of some grand scheme to move towards diplomacy by highlighting how pissed we are about their EFPs?
I'm slowly beginning to wonder if the model is less tactical Jenga and simply a case musical chairs, where the game started with only half as many chairs as there are players.
EDIT: I'm torn by all these questions because I really don't know if the American public - which can either pull one or more pieces, or wind the clock forward - understands what the endstate is anymore. I fear that we will come to the end not because we are done and it is time to go, but we have achieved a "decent interval" and that is enough because we have lost enough treasure and can go no further.