Of course you can do that -- should do that
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Fuchs
intent:
* from fusing & interpreting recce reports
* from prisoners
but will it give you that enemy commanders intentions or merely his capabilities and some indications? I don't think either of those will put you inside the mind of an opposing commander. Not to mention a good deception plan can lead one astray. Badly...
This is partly semantic but it has very real and important point. You can learn things, assess what you've learned and usually determine possibilities and even occasionally, enough to ascertain probabilities -- however you must consider that the other guys is at least as smart and experienced as are you and is as capable of a startling and innovative effort. Not stating his 'intentions' is simply to avoid the mindset "that's what he's going to do..." That's a strong human predilection without reinforcing it by believing you might have learned his intentions.
It is simply avoiding target fixation. More particularly, potentially wrong target fixation...
That's exactly what it would take...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TAH
...AND intentions (he is likely planning on doing) is important for the commander to make correct decisions.
Somebody has to go up and punch the guy in the nose in order to determine actual intent.
and is easier said than done.
Quote:
By restricting ourselves to passive surveillance, we open ourselves up to deception by the other side.
No one here is suggesting that, only saying that all the aggressive recon work in the world will not reliably and accurately provide you intentions. You ascertain capabilities and infer probabilities but you cannot determine intent.
Probabiliy versus Intention
Ken and Wilf say potato Luchs and I say patato :)
Within some limits, agressive recon/recce gives you insights into what the enemy may do next. However, there is a chance that that's exactly what the sneaky SOB wants you to think. :)
Target on the Mover ???:confused:
I could point out that Webster says Wilf and I are spelling it right...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TAH
Ken and Wilf say potato Luchs and I say patato :)
Within some limits, agressive recon/recce gives you insights into what the enemy may do next. However, there is a chance that that's exactly what the sneaky SOB wants you to think.
Target on the Mover ???:confused:
Your "within some limits" sort of equals my "...you can ascertain capabilities and even, if you're lucky -- or really good -- probabilities but you can not determine the opposing commanders intentions." (all emphasis added / kw). That's sorta semantic, I guess...
As an aside, I agree with you on the principles of cavalry / reconnaissance operations and capabilities with the caveat that recon by stealth can work in MCO and it has been done by us if rarely. Other armies do it more often, we just don't usually have the patience for it ala your comment on OpTempo (as desired by some Cdr somewhere...). :wry:
So, as on old Cav Colonel once said "...we just go out looking for trouble and to do that, you have to have armor." :D