Nuisance value as a source of livelihood
The way the modern world is structured right now (partly or mostly led by the US), populations have various ways to make a living: some are obvious and "traditional", like agriculture. Some are equally obvious and modern (like industrial manufacturing) and some are based on extraction of valuable minerals (the biggest example being oil). Since in the last category, the extraction is done by a relatively small number of people, frequently foreigners, the way the local population gets the money is frequently problematic. Someone grabs power and takes the money on behalf of the whole nation, but corruption and widespread dissatisfaction with the way the wealth is being shared are almost a given.
All this is old hat. But there seems to be another way to make a living that is less obvious or less noted: i.e. nuisance value. One could argue that if the US ends up paying tens of billions per year to afghanistan to help them "develop", that will be a good use of nuisance value by the afghan people...after all, other equally poor countries are not getting injections of billions of dollars and thousands of highly paid aid workers. Pakistan has more of a real economy than Afghanistan, but the army certainly sells nuisance value too (pay us well or the whole region blows up)....before paknationalists jump on me, I will propose that the same model may apply to the US if the real economy continues to decline. And its not really new. Many of the great conquerors of history were basically using military prowess to grab other people's money, this is just a more refined version of the same scam.
If Yemeni oil is running out, does it not make sense for Yemen to sell nuisance value??
Yemen - a Saudi sphere of responsibility?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cavguy
(Q1) Is Yemen's potential explosion really an American concern beyond AQ exports of terror? (Q2) Or should we let the Saudis handle it, since they have a well equipped army, money, and regional interest at stake?
Cavguy,
Having read many of the links here I hazard an "armchair" answer.
Q1. No, the primary responsibility lies with the people of the Yemen, who appear to be poorly served by their thirty year long government.
Q2. No, part of the problem is the Saudi's involvement, pushing their version of Islam, bribing tribal chiefs; note the revolt by the Al-Huthi is by a Shia tribe and whilst the Saudis have a military capability is it one that is effective in aggressive action? They maybe part of the solution.
Yemen: a few pointers from RUSI (UK)
Two post-Detroit articles are on the RUSI website 'home page' under Analysis: http://www.rusi.org/ which contain valuable points:
1) Al-Qa'ida in Yemen: Situation Update and Recommendations for Policy Makers
Quote:
..neither the threat of this attack nor the danger posed by AQAP to Western interests should be exaggerated. The attempt was a terrorist attack not only in the sense that it targeted civilians, but also in that it instilled fear in Western governments and populations far out of proportion to the actual threat..
Sheikh Naji Bin Abdul Aziz al-Shayef, the leader of the Bakeel tribe, recently stated: The tribes of the Bakeel, whose members number around seven million, stand together against the so-called Al-Qaeda in Yemen and its criminal elements...
The London conference should:
Quote:
Acknowledge that this is a regional, geo-strategic issue. Yemen is part of an arc of instability and solutions to its systemic problems must involve Arab and African partners.
b. Yemen requires a comprehensive approach. A dependence solely on security force assistance and targeted counter-terrorism operations will prove counter-productive.
c. Whilst attempting to take a holistic approach, it is essential to disaggregate the threats emerging from the differing security challenges in Yemen. Aggregating all those who oppose the Yemeni government or Western policies as terrorists is a mistake. It took several years for militaries to learn the lesson that not all Sunni insurgents in Iraq were members of Al-Qa'ida and that the Taliban are not synonymous with Al-Qa'ida in Afghanistan. The same mistake should not be made when considering AQAP and other armed actors in Yemen.
d. Radicalisation in Yemen is no longer just a problem for Yemen. Significant numbers of non-Yemenis like Abdulmutallab are travelling to Yemen, resulting in an increased risk of radicalisation and of the subsequent threat of terrorist attacks outside Yemen. Millions of US dollars spent in development assistance in countries like Yemen may prove more effective than billions of dollars of additional defence and homeland security expenditure. Prioritising development is not a soft option, nor merely a good thing to do - it is an act of enlightened self-interest.
Link:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment...4B475DF54843E/
2) After the Christmas Day bomb plot: where now for counter-terrorism? This is a wider ranging article and has a section on the Yemen, which I quote at length:
Quote:
Discussion will naturally focus on the interpretation of Islam in Yemen and whether its theological landscape is conducive to extremists.
This will get rather complicated, however. Historically, Yemen, particularly the Hadramawt valley, has been at the centre of a very sophisticated and anti-anarchical mode of Islamic thought, relying on mainstream Islamic theology, law and spirituality. The results have blossomed into more nuanced and mainstream readings, albeit from a conservative perspective, with a following currently spanning the United States, Europe, East Africa and through to East Asia. Yemen achieved this without state interference or involvement - peaceful preachers have independently and without state patronage encouraged their flock to work within civil society to battle society's ills, marginalise extremes, and encourage indigenous notions of Islamic expression.
Thus, in the UK, authorities have encouraged Yemeni-trained preachers to visit (through the Radical Middle Way initiative), and Muslim communities have been sending their sons and daughters to the Hadhramawt valley for decades now to learn from their example. They come back as vibrant functionaries, often with few if any resources. The effects of their work are yet to be calculated, but it is likely that without their input, the problem of violent extremism we face would be far more pronounced.
To be sure, the positive influence of this Islamic tendency is not always apparent in a Yemen ravaged by conflict. Extremists do certainly operate. But that is more to do with Yemen's fragmented insurgencies and ungoverned spaces, which foreign extremists exploit to find safe haven. Yet, the predominant modes of religious interpretation are not conducive to a large-scale 'Takfiri' type movement, which Al-Qa'ida-style operatives could draw recruits from....
Finally, with regards to Yemen, it is important to understand the country before resorting to hasty reactions. The Yemeni authorities take seriously the threat that faces them, and they have been very clear and open about where they stand. We need to increase co-operation with those authorities, and improve their capacity to the job they know how to do best - not turn them, and the local population, against us.
Link:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment...4B475B34EBDA8/
First time visitor reflects
The long time BBC Middle East correspondent on his visit to the Yemen: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programme...nt/8448393.stm and available on Ipod etc.
His closing sentences:
Quote:
Many people here have told me that the only way forward is to rebuild Yemen so that its people will not be seduced by the jihadists' violent vision of a glorious martyr's death. That will take time. You can choose, someone said - quick results or good results. Not both.
It gets better, no complex, no baffling
A really bizarre exploration of the Yemeni situation: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/8459282.stm
Quote:
The Sheikh (Sheikh Abdulmajeed al-Zendani) is the most influential religious figure in Yemen. He is also on the America's list of those it believes connected to global terrorism. Sheikh Zendani is close to the government here and journalists at the news conference questioned how sincere Yemen could be about co-operating with the US if he was still at liberty.
The more that is revealed about the local situation one hopes the earlier hype to respond quickly with force is now counter-balanced.
A bit of history: reminders
Copied from the 'What are you reading' thread, hat tip to Sandman:
Quote:
Just finished ARABIAN ASSIGNMENT written by David Smiley commander of the British involvement in the Middle East during the 60’s. Of particular interest was his work in Yemen. I had forgotten that the U.S. favored the Egyptian invasion while the British supported the Saudi backing of the Emir’s guerrillas. Smiley’s constant struggles with the various tribes’ he tried to unite, helps to provide a window into politics in that country today.
I'd forgotten that the UK-US 'special relationship' did not apply to the Yemeni civil war in the 1960's and the UK ruled Aden 1839-1967, with a relationship with the rest of what was then called South Yemen.
Yemeni Foreign Minister talks
The BBC TV 'Hard Talk' interviewed the Yemeni Foreign Minister and the IPod is on:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00qg6xf (quite long) and without a summary.
Summary found here on Reuters
:http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60P1LD20100126
Quote:
Qirbi ruled out allowing a U.S. military base on Yemeni soil or covert foreign operations in the country.
"We will undertake it ourselves. Why do we need outside soldiers to fight when we can do the fight ourselves?".
He said the government had mistakenly allowed foreign intervention in 2002, when a U.S. missile strike killed an al Qaeda leader suspected of planning the 2000 suicide bombing of the U.S. warship Cole.
"It proved to be a terrible mistake, and this is why we don't want to repeat it. We have to do it ourselves and anybody who is interested will have to support us.
I think that means, minus diplomacy, "give us the money". Now have we, especially the US taxpayer, heard that before many times? No, rhetorical question and no answers required.
Diplomacy -v- fight, pay and fleece
Two stories from a number as the diplomatic conference on the Yemen looms closer:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...012602205.html
This is a quick summary: http://cominganarchy.com/2010/01/26/...raphy-matters/ and hat tip to Zenpundit who highlights how the Yemeni tribes fight and get paid, by the Saudis (with emphasis added):
Quote:
The Saudis are guilty of aggravating and prolonging the conflict. Wary of taking too many losses on the ground and unable to do much by air and sea, they have recruited the Hashed, a local tribe, to fight against the Huthi, the tribe central to the Shia rebels. The Hashed have several incentives to continue fighting for as long as possible—they have a long-standing feud with the Huthi, and make a great deal of money from fighting for the Saudis, and may be coming up with schemes to prolong the conflict. According to a source of Al Jazeera:
If [the Hashed are] given the mission of taking a particular mountain, for example, they’ll call up the Huthi leaders and tell them: ‘We’re getting five million riyals to take the mountain. We’ll split it with you if you withdraw tonight and let us take over’… After the tribesmen take charge, they hand it over to the Saudis… The next day, the Huthi return and defeat the Saudis and retake the mountain… It’s been happening like this for weeks.
A Yemeni analyst and a little more
A rather unusual, short article:http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789...1804&MainCat=6 The Yemen Post is based in the Yemen and has an English website. A careful look found some stories missed, I like this one:
Quote:
Yemen spent only 7 percent of the pledges announced during the 2006 London Donor Conference, UK's Foreign Secretary David Miliband has said, pointing out that donors promised $ 5.7 billion in 2006, out of which 81 percent was allocated and 40 percent signed.
Link:http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789...1814&MainCat=3
Stop & Start in the Yemen
Looks like local traditions persist:
Quote:
Yemen's Shi'ite northern rebels accept the government's terms for a ceasefire, their leader said on Saturday, but there was no immediate response from the authorities.
From:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...013001019.html