Good and terribly accurate post, KingJaja
AQ & Al-Shabaab - assessing the threat
This commentary on AQ's merger could fit in the Horn of Africa Non-piracy Somali thread, so will be copied there. Hat tip to FP Blog:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...erger?page=0,0
A good summary and ends with well made points:
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It's one thing to have a loaded gun; it's another to pull the trigger and safely walk away. Al-Shabab might elevate its status in the jihadi world by hitting an American target on U.S. soil, but in doing so it would risk an even harsher crackdown on its bases in Somalia.
But then, al-Shabab has earned one more dangerous distinction: It is the only jihadi organization ever to convince Americans -- at least four, so far -- to serve as suicide bombers. It would not be wise to count on al Qaeda's newest affiliate to act in its own self-interest.
Global Jihad Sustained Through Africa
A report by a RUSI analyst, Valentina Soria, that considers:
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Africa represents a fertile ground for a diminished ‘Al-Qa’ida-core’ to re-group,
re-energise and re-launch its mission of global jihad.
The Key Findings are:
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Recent attacks in Nigeria, coupled with ongoing insurgency in Somalia and current turmoil in Mali, underline that the jihadist challenge may be migrating to Somalia, Kenya, north Nigeria and the borderlands of some of the vast territories of West Africa.
a) As the central leadership of Al-Qa’ida is weakened and challenged, the terrorist movement is looking to partnerships in Saharan and Sub-Saharan Africa to re-group and re-energise itself
b) Despite greater co-operation, there seems to be an unresolved tension between transnational aims of Al-Qa’ida-core and the local grievances of African partners
c) Following the alliance with Al-Qa’ida-core, regional affiliates such as Al-Qa’ida in the Maghreb and Al-Shabaab have undergone similar patterns of strategic, tactical and propagandistic evolution
d) Nigeria’s Boko Haram is still focused on a local campaign, but
recent operational refinement and ability to stage deadly ‘spectaculars’ suggests disturbing connections with other regional terror groups
e) Links between Al-Qa’ida-core and some jihadist groups in Africa have been established over the last decade which vary in strategic and operational significance
f) A range of new challenges are possible as jihadism evolves and disperses into territories of ungoverned space across large stretches of the African continent. Among these are the potential for radicalisation and mobilisation of a new subset of British youth in the UK
The later has got the headlines in the UK. There is also a profile of Al-Shabaab in Somalia
Link:http://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/UKTA2.pdf