1 Attachment(s)
Mathematical models & reality
The attached attack was sand tabled and rehearsed for a couple of weeks. In the event, tactical bombing failed to dent Siegfried - so also div & regt arty & 4.2 mortars. Charlie (my dad's company) & an attached MG platoon from Dog took most of their casualties in the first hour from pre-registered Jerry arty & mortars.
So, Charlie stalled by the RR tracks, until a few guys took out the blocking pillbox - and a couple of platoon leaders put together a composite platoon which was at least able to provide Able & Baker with supporting fires. All of C's assault squads (the guys with explosives & flamethrowers) were lost to the Jerry barrage.
A & B assaulted as planned - and all pillboxes were reduced by day's end. So, 1/117 was the can opener that opened the gap for the rest of the 30ID and 2AD.
Are there mathematical models for the tip of the spear ?
Would they predict the casualties sustained ?
It's less a battle and more of a fun educational process..
...at least for me :D
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ken White
I may be mistaken but I believe the reason we no longer have the worlds strongest financial system can be laid at the feet of two entities. The US Congress and political class who encouraged stupidity and the Financial whiz types -- who all used mathematical models to prove what they were doing was valid...
Won't argue with respect to number one, but disagree in some aspects on number two. Using the old 'guns don't kill people, people kill people' I would modify this to say 'mathematical models don't ruin financial systems, people who use mathematical models improperly ruin financial systems'. Mathematical models can also be used to help build nations as our 13 plus trillion USD GDP can attest. You point however is taken, when ethics and morality are not consistently practiced by the majority of a nations leadership (financial or otherwise), trouble inevitably follows: see the endlessly fascinating history of Rome.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ken White
I'm dubious. I've watched too many war games, computerized and not, get manipulated and too many results that were unpalatable discarded. People don't play fair. Really messes things up, sometimes.
I also mentioned...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Surferbeetle
As with any methodology, advice derived from mathematical modeling and simulation does not give a leader a magic pass to ignore common sense nor is it to be feared as voodoo magic whose use will consign our souls to the lowest circles of hell.
...and have mentioned previously that I am a big believer in intuition as well the rigors of engineering and science. I enjoy winning and have no problems using whatever tool is handy in a fight; what I am trying to share is that we- The Army - need to get serious about mathematical models and simulations for the COIN fight and we have the people who can figure this one out. It's certainly not as tough as going to the moon but neither is it a cakewalk...and it will take time so we need to get cracking.
Some of the areas that I see that might be of benefit include derivatives of epidemiology/financial models for the 'health' of an AO. This could include wheat production, orchard production, agricultural water deliveries, employment rates, etc. There has to be a way to get Afghanis to devote more of their time to non-kinetic instead of kinetic activities...drain the swamp to use the Army vernacular. It's not our job to do this for them, lets teach them to fish rather than provide fish ;). Nor I am saying that using these methodologies/tools will allow freaking peace, harmony, and free-love to break out across the land/world. We just need to work on getting things down to an acceptable low roar among the populace while we work on getting our hands on the trouble makers (ala Homer and Bart but with less of the humor).
1 Attachment(s)
non-duality and hard-power hippies
Sorry to go off-topic, but sometimes it seems as if the skeptics get more than a whiff of crapshot from what some may perceive as the unfortunate, loose surface similarities between "coin koans" and beatnik metaphysics. To paraphrase unkindly for example: sometimes a surface might be a gap, or sometimes both or even neither...and sometimes it's the other way around...man! (beats coin bongo) This flirtation with the lava-lamp intangibles of LIC must strike some as tempting incoherency and inviting chaos, thus precipitating a threat of collapse.
Gotta have more coin-bongo, or is it cowbell...
From Registan by Joshua Foust A Pragmatic Extrapolation from Limited Data
Quote:
Since 2006, that problem has only gotten worse. While Sherzad itself has a relatively high income (see page 3, pdf), Nangarhar as a whole has only become more violent in the years since Ms. Felbab-Brown wrote that op-ed. What we do know is the extremely erratic behavior of Nangarhar’s opium sector has contributed to economic instability in the province overall, and severe income swings (page 32, pdf). From the data on hand, it is likely that higher incomes—such as Sherzad District, where the Coalition just conducted a noteworthy eradication effort—correspond with opium production. According to the IMF, when Nangarhar province saw a huge drop in opium cultivation under Gul Agha Sherzai’s early tenure in 2005/6, province-wide GDP was about $1.3 billion (which was a big drop from the year before, when there was much more opium). The next year, 2006/7, when opium production spiked 285%, province-level GDP rose to $3.2 billion, only to fall the next year to $1.8 billion as the UNODC declared it poppy-free.
Now, none of this proves any sort of causation, and much of the analysis about current trends is based off that single data point at the start of this post. However, these are the limitations we must work with—there simply are not good, rigorous data sets about the opium market in Nangarhar. The tiny glimpses of it that we have, however, indicate that not only is Nangarhar not at all the model province some U.S. officials seem to want it to be, but that its governor, Gul Agha Sherzai, is far less effective and capable than people have given him credit for.