An estimated 2.1 million people died in the last civil war in Mexico, out of an estimated population of about 15-17 million. (see McCaa, Robert.“Missing Millions: The Demographic Costs of the Mexican Revolution.” Mexican Studies Vol. 19, Iss. 2 (2003): 367-400.18 October)
Over 10% of the total population died during the last war in Mexico, before there was a drug problem.
1) Its about more than drugs. The drug money exacerbates some previously existing fissures, but many of the problems are not new.
I think it will get worse faster than we think as the "insurgents" seek to influence the Mexican election cycle over the next 18 months. Nobody on this site is talking about the internal Mexican election cycle/politics/ethnic fissures. Heck nobody even mentioned the Zimmerman Telegram. How that for context? Why would somebody NOT exploit this situation? Drugs are the latest part of the story, but they are not the entire story.
2) I'd argue that we're spending more time talking about our internal politics than talking about Mexico. Some of the fissures in Mexican society existed a long time before our "war on drugs" started. "The Power and the Glory" was written about the fascist (sorry "national socialist") repression after the last civil war in Mexico - before our "war on drugs" ever started.
- I bring it up because it touches on some of the things we're not talking about
: The racial tensions in the Mexico, the religious oppression after the Mexican Revolution, and the ethnic/economic divide. It is a snap shot of the "human terrain" after the last Mexican Civil War/Revolution.
3) The new FX-05 Mexican Assault Rifle is called the ''Xiuhcoatl'' and that is not a Spanish word folks. It is Nahuatl - the most widely spoken Ameri-Indian language in Mexico.
- We
NEVER want to talk about this in the US: Mexico's Law of Linguistic Rights lists over 60 "official languages" over and above Spanish.
- The vast majority of those languages are only spoken by very small groups (Ameri-Indian Tribes), but the point is that Mexico is more of a quilt work than a monolith.
http://www.ethnologue.com/show_map.asp?name=MX&seq=10
- We learned about other folks ethnicity the hard way in CENTCOM - we need to talk about the "human terrain". Drug money is a new factor in the same old problem.
- I know the FX-05 is the G36. Roger that.
4) The Mexican government policies of pre-revolutionary "Castellanization" and the post-revolutionary "MEXICANIDAD" movement both have sought to shape the national identity of Mexico with varying degrees of success.
- In the end Mexico is about 65% metizo, 10-12% Ameri-Indian, and 20% European.
- Who do you think has the money? What is the popular image, in Mexico, of who has the money and why?
- How do you think this shapes the internal politics of Mexico?
- I know this is a pretty crude way of putting it - but mix violence, ethnicity, and politics and things can get pretty crude. That is part of the "human terrain".
5)
Contested areas in the US. Armed Forces Journal is really talking about contested areas in our country right? If we're talking about it how far behind the power curve are we?
http://www.afji.com/2008/12/3801379
- “criminal gang activity is a national security threat today. ... It is presently challenging civil order in some contested areas in the U.S., and could continue metastasizing into a more serious threat in three areas; as an active challenge to civil order itself (as in Mexico today), as an enabler or support network for terrorist attacks in the U.S., and by establishing a permissive, lawless environment that passively supports anti-U.S. activity.”
6) President Calderon says: Its a WAR! I'd believe him.
http://projects.latimes.com/siege/#/its-a-war
The LA Times does appear to get it, and is doing some good reporting. It is a war, it will get worse before it gets better.
If you want the worst case then read the Zimmerman Telegram by Barbara Tuchman, and substitute new characters of your choice for the Germans.
Again: Why would somebody NOT exploit this situation? Our break from history really is over.
Thanks for reading this far. Have a good weekend - Dave