N. Korea can be led by consortium free enterprise offers
Your summery overview thoughts and observations are of course darn good.
I worked the "Korea Scenario" as a chief of J4 computerized wargamming (as a reservist doing only IDTs and ADTs, some TDYs) for first old US Readiness Command, which morphed into US Special Operations Command. We used Star Wars funding as there was so much of it out there at that time with few knowing how to use it all!!!Thus, I have some 1980s into the 1990s focused Korean "awareness."
My take is that China is the key, always has been, as it was China which drove the Korean War, my view, as much as Russia. *Russia and China competed heavily to be "the one" to guide/control old N. Korea...today a modernizing China is the item, my view at least.
WHERE I DISAGREE is that I think China can or could form a consortium with the same folks involved in the "talks" with N. Korea, and that group can be added to by any all nations who want to in effect "invest" in to be developed or to expand on and improve existing N. Korean industries...TV sets comes to mind.
I am a stubborn Irishman and am convinced that no matter who is in charge that the chance to have a more diversified manufacturing economy, with help to train up workers to do technology related production, and compounded by helping them with on the ground and hydrophonic agriculture is something that "has" to appeal to N. Korean from the top down as well as from the bottom up.
Attention creates "fondness" a lot more than just waitng to see what comes next. Business is still the best and most creative vehicle to find a better way for them and us all, my stubborn free enterprise system view.
GREED has damn near wrecked the entire free world with crooked securitized mortgage derivatives and this sort of b.s. has to really be stopped...as the same crooks under new "banners" are already trying to jump start such cheap criminal rip offs again as fast as they can.
This remark comes from me with over 14 current, consecutive years as a real estate broker, one who never did a dirty deal, but who certainly "felt", which was proved by our damned near total banking/financial sector collapse, we just couldn't be doing so well as the phoney, trumped up securitized mortgage paperwork told us we were doing. Wordy, I admit!
Hyuandi reopens plant talk in/with N. Korea
Has anyone noticed in today's world news that South Korea's Hyuandai has reopened talks for plant/production inside N. Korea?
I was formerly unaware that Hyuandai already had a foothold inside N. Korea.
Interesting!
2005 war game still has relevance...
...The Atlantic (Online)conducted a war-game, Pentagon style, in 2005 investigating and testing various hypotheses over how to deal militarily (and diplomatically) with the DPRK;
North Korea: The War Game
Veteran DPRK analyst/watcher Joseph Bermudez ...
...reveals shifts in the DPRK's intelligence activities and organisation in
A New Emphasis on Operations Against South Korea
and
Jeffrey Lewis askes whether North Korea can actually build a H-Bomb
These and more at the informative 38 North website
Is Kim Jong-Il close to death?
According to an article by the Telegraph, The reclusive leader of the DPRK is coming close to death and that Kim is increasingly becoming detached from daily governance in the North. Also due to this, actions by the North Korean government and speculation from outside the DPRK has lead many to believe that a successor to Kim will be announced sometime in September.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-to-death.html
I really should not be saying this, but...
What I saw in the sinking was a rogue Military General making a cry for help to the US for assistance in a coup (or at least acknowledgement that we knew that they wanted to take control of the government)
I pair it with MAO and Fidel original wanting a democracy and America being tone deaf.
Remember the lack of bravado before and after the sinking. Kim would have made this HIS personal victory. The order would have to come from Kim, yet he was involved with trains to china and appearances as well. Kim is a very "controlling guy".
Shortly after the sinking of the SKOR vessel, a very high ranking general was fired and a purge shortly followed. The regime is very weakened.
China has been bribing guards all along the border and yes, sending in modern technology so the people see what is going on in the rest of the world. The GULAG is about to end there.
Markets are to become legal again as such dire consequence the state their economy finds.
It has never been this bad in NORK. It has already collapsed IMHO.
The troops are getting edgy and the rice and grain sheds have been emptied to the population.
Last step is lash out.
China doesn't want a mess...
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Originally Posted by
JMA
Can't see China letting things get out of their control there though. The last thing they want is a legitimate reason for the US Navy to hang out in the Yellow sea and the East China Sea as this would be too close for comfort.
Even more importantly, China doesn't want to have to deal with the flood of refugees and cost of dealing with a truly failed PDRK. Not to mention the fact that they would lose the use of the PDRK as a distraction to the US and ROK... think of all the money and military power that would be rolled right up to the PRC border if the Koreas were to re-unite...
In truth I don't think the ROK really wants to deal with a failed PDRK either, they're doing too good economically and the track record (reference E/W Germany) isn't the best...
-Cliff
I doubt you can honestly or accurately give such
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Originally Posted by
JMA
I can guarantee you that 100% of national leaderships across the world noticed and took the point. That matters.
a guarantee. That too matters. Even if you were anywhere near correct, most of them are smart enough not to make a standing broad jump at what could very likely be an erroneous conclusion...
Adding to the wise words from Rex Brynen, he's totally correct -- but then, no one in this case knows what the original plan really was. All most of us know is what was publicly announced. That often, even for the US, is not what's really intended. Does suck in the unthinking quite often...;)
Neat thing about being old is that I've seen dozens if not hundreds of would be prognosticators and pundidiots state categorically what the US did or did not do -- and they've most always been proven wrong. I've also read about the decline and fall of the US so many times that now I just smile. As Humphrey Bogart said, "Here's laughing at you, Kid..." :D
You miscontrue -- or misstate -- so much that you're quite humorous.
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Originally Posted by
JMA
Yes Ken I understand that no one wants to see their country humiliated internationally... but don't let that blind you from the truth.
In reverse order, never has. The US constantly and quite deliberately humiliates itself internationally in a futile attempt to show the World we're the good guys. We aren't, really but we're fairly decent and generally do more good than harm. The humility act really does us few favors but we continually do it; it gets misunderstood and people think we're even dumber than we are. Not a big thing, as I said, I've watched it for a good many years.
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The problem is that the cause of the humiliation was gross incompetence. So don't go after the messenger... go after the idiots who thought China (which does not have an aircraft carrier yet) is going to allow the US sail one of theirs right into the Yellow Sea and thumb its nose at China.
Let me count the ways...:rolleyes:
In order, you do not know if it was gross incompetence or a deliberate ploy, you do not know if the initial plan was announced by 'A' and then 'B' overruled him or her -- in short, your allegation is, yet again, ill informed and an assumption that since it was not done as you like to think you'd do it, it was incompetent or incorrect. Sorry, no prize for that leap.
I'm not "going after the messenger" -- presuming you consider yourself the messenger -- merely pointing out the message, as are so many, is short sighted and possibly erroneous. Nor do I believe the rest of that paragraph is correct, though I certainly don't know, anymore than do you, so there's no sense in either of us even acting like we're 'going after' anyone.
Lastly, as Entropy said above, we've got said bit more pizazz than to worry about diplomatic turnarounds -- if indeed that's what it was; we'll see. I'd have used self confidence rather than self esteem but the principle is the same. Nations are not people and one should IMO avoid trying to talk about them as if they were human but they do have national attributes and one of ours is trying to not offend just to be offensive. You might consider that... ;)
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In these cases it is not the US and Israeli policies that are so repugnant but the incompetence as mentioned.
Ah, yes. Being a gentleman (on occasion) I'll forego asking about events of the last 30 plus years in your neck of the woods; I'll merely point out that no one, no nation, is error free.
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While knee jerk reaction is often "we don't care what anyone thinks" it is obvious that the American people do care what the world thinks of them. The answer is quite simple don't make it so hard for people to be a friend of the US.
Oh, you got one right!!! Yep, thus my comment above that we often humiliate ourselves in efforts to win friends and influence people. Doesn't usually work; the big clumsy and seemingly inartful guy is always going to be a target for the gibes of the smaller and more apparently agile. The big guy just has to take it and keep smiling or he gets labeled a bully. That works until one the gibers gets stupid and carried away, overdoes it and then gets smacked. Since the big guy is clumsy , his smack may go awry, they often do but the last thing you want to do is get him really upset and let him catch you in one of these. :D
Nope, most Americans do care. Having been around the world in both directions a few times and having learned that most others do not care, I tend to not worry about it either way. I do smile when those others scream about American ineptitude and greed out of one side of their mouth, totally fail to understand Americans (or the domestic political dynamic that impacts what said Americans do) in their brains and scream "What are the Americans going to do to fix this?" from the other side of their mouth... :cool:
or, as Wilf or Gian would say
humiliatingclimbdownistas...
"Ah, I kill me...":D
The number of people who do not understand that hyperbole, posturing and backtrack are Diplomacy in the current era never cease to surprise me...