The Russian COIN campaign in North Caucasus
The Russian COIN campaign in North Caucasus
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Government — the main source of instability in the northern Caucasus
The sub-title or opening reads:
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As violence in the north Caucasus hits the headlines again, Alexander Cherkasov sees the roots of the problem in the Russian government’s wilful misunderstanding of local issues and lack of strategy for dealing with them.
The first paragraph:
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In the course of the armed conflict that has been alternately flaring up and smouldering in the north Caucasus over the last two decades, the two sides have not only infringed human rights, but denied their existence as a basic human value. The methods used by the Russian government in its war with an armed underground – ‘terror against terror’ – are not only unlawful and criminal by definition: they are also counterproductive, since they simply encourage a constant renewal of these guerrilla forces. The use of ‘death squadrons’, who abduct people, hold them in secret prisons, torture and execute them without trial, certainly produces an effect, but is ultimately useless.
Some of the examples cited are staggering.
Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russ...thern-caucasus
Suicide Bombing: Chechnya, the North Caucasus and Martyrdom
Thanks to Cerwyn Moore, the author of this article, which is on-line for a limited period:). From the opening:
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This essay analyses Chechen-related suicide attacks, locating them within the historical and political context of the anti-Russian insurgency in the North Caucasus and the different factions of the anti-Russian armed resistance movement in the period between the first and second Russo-Chechen wars. The core of the essay is an analysis of the different character of two waves of suicide operations, (2000–2002) and (2002–2004). The first wave was linked to nominally Islamist groups, whereas the second set of attacks were linked to Operation Boomerang devised by Shamil Basaev. Finally, the essay considers other attacks that do not fit into either of these two waves of terrorism.
(It ends with) the analysis in this essay serves to debunk many of the myths, often repeated in popular studies, associated with Chechen-related suicide attacks.
Link:http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/...36.2012.718421
The Russian Counterinsurgency Operation in Chechnya Part 1: Winning the Battle, Losin
The Russian Counterinsurgency Operation in Chechnya Part 2: Success, But at What Cost
Jihad in Russia: the Caucasus Emirate: IISS Strategic Comment
A useful reminder by IISS on what is happening in the region; where the insurgents have caused everyone a few surprises in the past:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...casus-emirate/
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Russia's counter-terrorism effort has assumed greater urgency since the 2014 Winter Olympic Games were awarded to Sochi, a popular resort city in the North Caucasus......(much later)...the Olympic Games have in the past proven to be a highly valued terrorist target, and the 2014 Sochi venue is probably seen by the CE as an opportunity to make its mark on the global stage.
Useful to see where the insurgents have spread and launched attacks, some pre-empted.
Personally I think there has been much hype around the terrorist threat to the Olympics Games.
In due course I will merge this into the main thread on the region and Chechnya.
Guerillas back in the mountains
A pre-publication alert for 'Fangs of the Lone Wolf. Chechen Tactics in the Russian-Chechen Wars 1994-2009' by Dodge Billingsley & Lester Grau. From the publishers summary:
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Books on guerrilla war are seldom written from the tactical perspective and even less seldom from the guerrilla's perspective....These are the stories of low-level guerrilla combat as told by the survivors. They cover fighting from the cities of Grozny and Argun to the villages of Bamut and Serzhen-yurt, and finally the hills, river valleys and mountains that make up so much of Chechnya. The author embedded with Chechen guerrilla forces and knows the conflict, country and culture. Yet, as a Western outsider, he is able to maintain perspective and objectivity
Link to Amazon (US): http://www.amazon.com/FANGS-LONE-WOL...Wars+1994-2009 and Amazon (UK):http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fangs-Cheche...+the+lone+wolf
The Volgograd Bombings: the Latest Chapter in Putin’s War in the Caucasus
As the Winter Olympics loom closer in Sochi, a Black Sea city in the Russian Federation, rather close to the Caucasus, has long been expected to be a target for Islamist groups based in the Caucasus.
There is an older thread, with no updates since late 2011 'Terrorism in Russia' at:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=10058
Dr Cerywn Moore, University of Birmingham (UK), is one of the few here who watches the region through the terrorism prism and following recent attacks has a backgrounder via RUSI:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment.../#.UtxHn9LFJkh
In summary:
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The latest bombings in Russia is part of an ongoing war between Putin and Islamist rebels who feed upon a anti-federal, pan-Turkic and pan-Islamist narrative.
There is another RUSI commentary 'The Volgograd Bombings and the Winter Olympics' at:http://www.rusi.org/go.php?structure...8#.UtxLItLFJkg
The regional Islamist leader, Doku Umarov, was again IIRC declared as killed in action this week, going on some Twitter traffic. The BBC has nothing to support this.
Dagestan: Russia’s hottest spot
An Open Democracy article on this little known Russian republic by a local reporter (also works for Radio Liberty:
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Asked to name Russia’s most troublesome region, most people would plump for Chechnya. But its neighbour Dagestan is now officially the most dangerous part of the Federation. In this republic of three million people there are sixty different ethnic groups, and not a week goes by without clashes between the police and insurgents, anti-terrorist special forces raids and explosions. It is also one of its least developed regions, with most of its financial needs met by subsidies from the centre. And its level of corruption is one of the highest in Russia as well.
Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russ...s-hottest-spot
Chechen militants: ‘more prestigious’ to fight for Islamic State
Initially posted as it's own thread for visibility, a nice writeup on our old buddies the Chechen Muj.
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Fighters from Chechnya are one of the forces behind IS’s meteoric rise in Syria. The attraction to jihad is not only ideological but practical.
“The Syrian ‘jihad’ began as a sort of proxy conflict for fighters who could not go home to fight in Chechnya or Dagestan,” says Joanna Paraszczuk, a journalist and blogger who has lived and worked in the Middle East and Russia and has a special interest in researching Russian-speaking foreign fighters in Syria. Many of them, she says, are wanted by security authorities.
http://syriadirect.org/main/36-inter...-islamic-state
Moderator at work: this post was in a stand alone, with 2.4k views then merged into a 2015 thread andf now merged to here (ends).
Why aren't more people paying attention to Chechnya?
Cited in part:
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Originally Posted by
craigdouglasalbert
Why aren't more people paying attention to Chechnya?
Craig,
For many reasons most regular SWJ posters watches other places than the Caucasus region and those places can change. Secondly for a long time I suspect many people thought the Chechen fighters threat was exaggerated, so tended to dismiss Chechens and Chechnya. Add in the difficulty for most media to report within the region - which is very rare - so one is left with accepting state or insurgent views or locating a reliable distant observer.
Many readers I suspect think Chechnya is "In Russia's backyard" so leave it to them. Then when Chechens appear in the Ukraine, on both sides, it gets confusing.
So you are welcome to present your viewpoint and readers.
Chechnya, War Without Trace
Showing @ the Frontline Club, London on Friday 12 June 2015, 7 PM an Al-Jazeera documentary:
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In the space of just a few years, Chechnya has undergone a remarkable transformation. Gone are the minefields and piles of rubble, which have now been replaced by broad avenues, luxury boutiques and glass-fronted skyscrapers. It’s virtually impossible to see that there was ever a war.Award-winning journalist Manon Loizeau has spent the past 20 years covering the Chechen conflict. In Chechnya, War Without Trace she returns to the places she knew well, filming undercover, to examine the lasting effects of conflict with Russia.
Behind the gleaming facade of the new Grozny, Loizeau discovers women and men seemingly more terrified now than during all the years of war and occupation. Although a fifth of the population vanished during the war, a fear of persecution has led to a collective forgetting of history.
Loizeau mixes the moving stories of those who search in vain for their loved ones with footage capturing the newly-polished surface of Chechnya, a country that remains internally traumatised and restless.
Chechnya, War Without Trace won the Grand Prize of the World Organization Against Torture (OMCT) at 2015 FIFDH (Human Rights Forum and Film Festival) in Geneva.
Shortly after the showing it will appear on the club's YouTube channel, plus the Q&A:http://www.frontlineclub.com/screeni...hout-trace-qa/
The Russians are sending the Chechens to ISIS?
A long article 'Russia’s Playing a Double Game With Islamic Terror' in The Daily Beast by Michael Weiss; the sub-title is:
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Even as America touts its counterterrorism partnerships with Russia, evidence points to the FSB directly feeding Dagestanis to ISIS
Link:http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...c-terror.html?
I have placed the thread here as whilst Moscow features, the Caucasus is the focal point. IRRC allegations have been made before that supposedly legendary Chechen fighters are in the Middle East, Weiss assembles a good case that they are in effect being exported. Note he relies on one study of a village as a test case.
A couple of choice passages:
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It may sound paradoxical—helping the enemy of your friend—but the logic is actually straightforward: Better the terrorists go abroad and fight in Syria than blow things up in Russia. Penetrating and co-opting terrorism also has a long, well-attested history in the annals of Chekist tradecraft.
Hence a reported 50% drop in violence in the region.
Not that exporting Islamist fighters, many then aspiring and without extensive experience, is unprecedented - remember Afghanistan? Weiss cites the head of the Jamestown Foundation:
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What’s the most significant policy decision we made to bring down the Soviet Union? Us sending foreign fighters into Afghanistan. This is the perfect form of payback. Create a quagmire in Syria, get us bogged down—all the while, offer your cooperation in helping to root out terrorism.
One wonders how the Assad regime and their Iranian allies view this export drive. I expect the Syrians know all too well what is going on and of course Russia still supplies ample ammunition and weapons.
Moderator at work: this post was in a stand alone thread, with 5k views now merged to here (ends).
The Chechens have taken an almost mythical nature
The Chechens were reported to be going to Afghanistan in this 2007 thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=3754
A cautionary note and wise words from Tom Odom.
How to fight Islamic State in Chechnya
An Open Democracy article; that starts with:
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t’s no secret that young men and women from the North Caucasus are fighting in Iraq and Syria for Islamic State. From Europe, where they lived as refugees, and Egypt and Syria, where they studied in religious institutes, men and women originally from Russia’s North Caucasus have been travelling to join Islamic State (IS) over the past 18 months. But there are also young men and women who have travelled to Iraq and Syria from Chechnya itself. And now these fighters are appearing on YouTube, declaring they will return to their homeland and ‘put things right’. Chechnya’s security services, however, are trying to limit the influence of IS ideology on the republic’s youth, which continues to emigrate under various guises.
Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-rus...te-in-chechnya
Dagestan: a village opts for bottom up counter-insurgency
A rare report on a village in Dagestan, in summary:
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This village used to house one of the North Caucasus’ most dangerous Islamist paramilitary units. With the Russian state nowhere to be seen, Gubden has started policing—and developing—itself.
Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-rus...ice-themselves
Murder in Istanbul: Kremlin's hand suspected in shooting of Chechen
The focus of this long article is Istanbul's Chechen community, but refers to events back home:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...id-edelgireyev
I was intrigued by this passage and the highlighted remark:
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By 2012, he was ready to fight again, but conditions in Chechnya had become almost impossible. The Chechen source now living in Ukraine explained how things got progressively harder from 2004, when mobile phones began to be widespread in Chechnya.
“Before, we would go to the villages, stock up and spend the night, and then go back to the forest, but that’s impossible now. Everyone has a mobile phone; the minute you show yourself you’re dead.
"Russian Spy" Karaeva's Execution by ISIS: Is There More Than Meets the Eye?
New thread for visibility and this is an intriguing matter, by an Indian author who "lurks" here. A Russian woman spy for 4-5yrs within, my emphasis:
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It is therefore very surprising that ISIS had, on its own, admitted a Russian intelligence agency’s penetration for 4-5 years into their group in the May issue of their “Istok” magazine. This was picked up by the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) who published it on 9 May 2016 quoting long excerpts from their statement that they had executed a woman named Elvira Karaeva belonging to its Caucasus affiliate.
Rightly the author points out:
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Terrorist groups do not normally give details how they frustrate intelligence penetration into their ranks unless it is for propaganda advantage.....We should remember that the ISIS intelligence is manned by Saddam era specialists (Mukhabarat) who had close contacts with Soviet intelligence.
Link:http://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/N...-Meets-the-Eye
How Russia allowed homegrown radicals to go and fight in Syria
A long Reuters report, sub=titled:
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For years Islamic militants in Russia were hunted by police. But then the authorities changed tack and allowed some to travel to the Middle East, sources say.
Link:http://www.reuters.com/investigates/...sia-militants/
Hat tip to Outlaw09 for spotting this and posting a link elsewhere.
Surely not: IS here is a FSB plot?
At a recent conference @ Oxford University, hosted by Pembroke College, entitled 'The Lure of Jihad: Propaganda & the Construction of Jihadist Identities' amidst the presentations was one talk that fits here: 'Emirate or Caliphate? Competing Calls to Jihad in the North Caucasus Insurgency' by Mark Youngman, of Birmingham University.
In the potted history given he pointed out that:
- The 2007 proclamation of a Caucasus Emirate was a victory of the jihadists over the nationalists;
- The split in Syria of the JMA, a Chechen group, in late 2013, was quickly replicated in the North Caucasus. This was followed by the Emirate being significantly weakened and then in July 2015 an ISIS Wilayah was proclaimed;
- This declaration was very dubious, with virtually no media explanation and no explanation how this would affect the domestic situation.
In a discussion it was suggested that the "split" was inspired by the FSB. This was supported by the first IS statement appearing on a website the FSB ran! It suits the FSB's purpose that all their opponents are IS.
Why Is Karachaevo-Cherkessia Quiet?
A classic account from a place I've never heard of and where Russian COIN / CT is very different:
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...the police officer can no longer revert to cruel methods of investigation against a person who prays next to him.
(Later) The example of Kabardino-Balkaria indicates that the authorities normally prefer to strike preemptively to antagonize, alienate and radicalize the Muslim community in order to justify the government terror that follows.
The full title is 'Why Is Karachaevo-Cherkessia Quiet When Its Neighbors Suffer From Violence?'. Link:https://jamestown.org/program/karach...ffer-violence/