Hey Bob, all 6 of your question sets ....
appear to be valid points that should be examined before some civilian (say JMM) sends you and Moore on an "intervention" - which if this civilian had any say would be a rare event. They seem to me to be more national security policy issues - so a fair topic for both the political and miltary sides.
That having been said (first do a good political area study pre-intervention), another concurrent examination must be whether the incumbant government has examined those same points - and what did it conclude.
I'd also add some factors based on the population's (and its sub-groups') perceptions of security, opportunity and ideology vice the incumbant and the insurgent - and let's go back and add into the mix Niel's factors (and Dayuhan's, and Bill's, and whoever else wants to enhance the area study).
Now, if the incumbant government and the putative intervenor are on all fours after examining all the relevant factors in how and why the insurgency will be targeted politically and militarily, then intervention might be a "go". But, if any material differences exist between the incumbant and the putative intervenor, intervention is extremely questionable. History teaches us that those differences are more likely to grow worse over time - leaving the intervenor locked into the very possible illegitimacy of the incumbant (Tim Lomperis' "illegitimacy lock"; e.g, Vietnam).
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Independent of critical examinations by the putative intervenor of the incumbant and the insurgent, the putative intervenor should also conduct a critical examination of where the incumbant country fits into the pecking order of the intervenor's enlightened self-interest - and the overall plusses and minuses of intervention.
Here is an example:
Quote:
In October 1951, the student conclusions to their study of US policy in Southeast Asia were presented to the college. Although opinions were somewhat divided, a large majority opposed any major US involvement. The conclusions of the majority could be summarized as follows:
(1) The United States had probably made a serious mistake in agreeing with its allies to allow French power to be restored in Indochina. As a colonial power, France had done little to develop indigenous civilian and military leaders and civil servants in preparation for the countries' eventual independence.
(2) Indochina was of only secondary strategic importance to the United States. The economic and military value of Vietnam, the most important state in the region, was not impressive. Politically and socially, Vietnam was obviously entering an unstable period with uncertain consequences. In any event, it did not warrant the commitment of US forces to its defense.
(3) General war planning by the US Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) envisioned a strategic defense in the Pacific, drawing the US forward defense line to include Japan, South Korea, and the offshore island chain (Okinawa-Taiwan-the Philippines). But in Southeast Asia, the line was drawn through the Isthmus of Kra on the mainland, excluding all of Indochina and most of Thailand. Thus, the Strait of Malacca and populous, richly endowed Indonesia were considered to be the prime strategic targets of the region.
(4) Militarily, the region in general and Vietnam in particular would be an extremely difficult operational area, especially for US forces. Unlike the relatively narrow Korean peninsula, Vietnam presented very long land and coastal borders that would be almost impossible to seal against infiltration and difficult to defend against overt military agression. Much of the region was covered with dense jungle and much was mountainous. Weather, terrain and geographic conformation combined to present formidable obstacles for military operations and logistic support.
(5) Politically and psychologically, the United States, if it were to become involved, would have to operate under severe disadvatages, for it would inherit the taint of European colonialism. The United States should not become involved in the area beyond providing materiel ["-iel", not "-ial"] military aid.
"US Policy in Southeast Asia". Reports of Student Committees #13-17 (Carlisle Barracks, Pa: US Army War College, 1951), cited in Bruce Palmer Jr, The 25-Year War (1984) - with HT to Ken White for suggesting this book.
Regards
Mike
Small update: still bubbling along?
News of this political conflict appears rarely, so I offer this as an update.
From an Indian commentator on security issues and I've added text in italics to help to explain:
Quote:
...Tamil Nadu is still hosting 114 refugee camps for 68,606 Sri Lankan Tamils. The UPA (Indian political party, currently in government)also made the mistake of bracketing Lankan Tamil issues with the LTTE. They failed to fathom the Tamil's emotional bonds with the diaspora. The mainland Tamil population, despite its revulsion after Rajiv Gandhi's assassination, started getting alarmed by the Rajapaksa regime's excesses (Sri Lanka Prime Minister}. They were also upset with New Delhi's ambivalent attitude towards the UN sponsored enquiry on war crimes. Lankan Tamil discontent resulted in the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) controlling 24 local government councils in the North/East (in Sri Lanka) after the July 2011 elections. The Rajapaksa family, which made this a prestige issue, could win only three councils through their Freedom Alliance (UPFA). They now say that the TNA is acting like the LTTE.
Link:Sunday October 16, 2011 http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/foreign-policy-must-make-sense-at-home-in-india
Sri Lanka’s ‘illiberal peace’: implications for Western influence
The title of a KoW comment by David Ucko, the catalyst appears to be a WaPo article, although other links are embedded:http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2012/07/sri...liberal-peace/
Two key points:
Quote:
The broader point is that the West was not needed nor was its approval sought.....we ought also to consider the declining currency of our professed Western ‘values’ – not least through our own actions, but also because of the wide variety of viable alternatives.
Reconciliation via sports?
In a bizarre twist and undoubtedly some Sri Lankan "spin" here:
Quote:
Former Tamil Tiger snipers have been selected to represent Sri Lanka in shooting sports at national level. They are among 16 picked at a talent-spotting camp held for ex-fighters last month. Others will represent Sri Lanka in swimming, athletics and cricket.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-18831958
R2P by the UN: not here thank you!
A BBC report on an issue that appears to have been swept off the agenda:
Quote:
The United Nations failed in its mandate to protect civilians in the last months of Sri Lanka's bloody civil war, a leaked draft of a highly critical internal UN report says. "Events in Sri Lanka mark a grave failure of the UN," it concludes. The government and Tamil rebels are accused of war crimes in the brutal conflict which ended in May 2009.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20308610
Interesting tactic by the Sri Lankan state:
Quote:
It also points to the Sri Lankan government's "stratagem of intimidation", including "control of visas to sanction staff critical of the state". The result was a UN system dominated by "a culture of trade-offs" - UN staff chose not to speak out against the government in an effort to try to improve humanitarian access.
Certainly not unique.
Looking back to Sri Lanka's war
Just discovered an old, 2013 review of 'Total Destruction of the Tamil Tigers: The Rare Victory of Sri Lanka's Long War' by Paul Moorcraft; it was in The Spectator, but the only complete online review is elsewhere and is an exact copy:http://sangam.org/review-total-destruction-tigers/
Amazon USA:https://www.amazon.com/Total-Destruc...0%99s+Long+War
Amazon UK:https://www.amazon.co.uk/Total-Destr...paul+moorcraft
Two quotes from the review:
Quote:
The simmering idea that permeates this book, that ultra-violence is a way, albeit a bloody one, effectively to conquer insurgency, is therefore predicated on a false idea that the Tamil issue is now resolved.
Then a list of the 'Colombo's approach' from an Indian expert:
Quote:
Political will
Go to hell (Ignore domestic and international criticism)
But keep important neighbours in the loop
No negotiations
Control the media
No ceasefire
Complete operational freedom
Promote young and able commanders