Pakistan’s Coming Defeat in Afghanistan
Not a headline I expected to see, which starts with:
Quote:
Every foreseeable ending to the Afghan war today—continued conflict with the Taliban, restoration of Taliban control in the southern and eastern provinces, or a nationwide civil war—portends nothing but serious perils for Islamabad. But judging from Pakistan’s behavior, it appears as if this fact has eluded the generals in Rawalpindi.
Link:http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/06...ghanistan/c6sn
Wishful thinking maybe, time will tell - if we are watching.
China's Asphalt Powerplay in Pakistan
A rare article on:
Quote:
China is shelling out massive amounts of money and manpower to improve Pakistan's Karakoram Highway, the highest motorway in the world. The supposed gift to its neighbor is a perfect example of China's economic strategy of taking on short-term expenses for the sake of long-term benefits.
Some stunning photos and a reminder that nature can still dominate, oddly missing from the text:
Quote:
Because the landslide created the lake, travelers and cargo must now transfer to boats to cross the 22 kilometers of the Karakoram Highway now underwater.
Link:http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-844282.html
Shells followed by three million refugees?
I noted the WaPo report on cross-border artillery shelling by Pakistan of parts of Eastern Afghanistan, which I assume are a bit more than bickering and probably are in reprisal for Afghan incursions:http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...B4W_story.html
Within the report is this more significant development:
Quote:
Pakistan recently decided to revoke refugee status for nearly 3 million Afghans, meaning they will be deported by year’s end.
Now I am unconvinced Pakistan will deport 3m people, especially as many now live far from Afghanistan, IIRC the refugee camps have closed and Afghans, ironically, dominate the heavy overland transport industry. This could change if a hostile popular attitude appears, unlikely IMO and rather conflicts with the tradition of hospitality. Let alone the response of the more Ummah friendly political parties.
Pakistan is losing friends (not the USA)
I have opened this new thread on Pakistan's strategic position after the arrival today of two expert commentaries on the developing relationship between India and Saudi Arabia. With a passing reference to China, whose relationship with Pakistan has a few troubles.
There is an existing, long running thread 'The US & others working with Pakistan' and quite simply 'working with' is not what is happening. Plus some of the events involved have appeared in the thread 'Mumbai Attacks and their impact'.
Stephen Tankel has a FP Blog article 'Pakistan's sticky wicket: The India-Saudi link':http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts...dia_saudi_link
Which ends with:
Quote:
Finally, this event should cause concern in Islamabad and Rawalpindi about the degree to which continued tolerance of groups like Lashkar is creating unease among even its closest allies. China too has evinced concern - rarely and diplomatically, but nevertheless publicly - about the potential for Pakistan-based militants to threaten its own internal security. Saudi Arabia has now gone a significant step further. Neither country is about to abandon Pakistan, but nor is their commitment to Pakistan as absolute as some of its leaders might publicly claim or privately wish to believe.
The Jamestown Foundation has a short article 'A Challenge for Pakistan: Saudi Arabia’s New Counterterrorism Cooperation with India':http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_...41c7acbda9b477
This looks more closely at the Indian aspects.
Still missing on my "radar" is a good article on what exactly is the Pakistan-Saudi relationship, we know many of the linkages, but not how they weigh in the relationship. Any suggestions would be welcome.
I don't think Pakistan can lose friends such as Saudi Arabia or the Chinese and expect this is fully appreciated, especially as relations with the generous USA are prone to tension and in the near future could end.