The truth shall set you free...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
JMA
Don't buy that. Think 'precedent'.
If you mean you do not buy it, fine. Your prerogative. If that's an attempt to tell me not to buy it, you're wasting your time; I've already bought it and put in the garage... ;)
You of all people should realize the US doesn't pay much heed to precedents -- you've certainly lambasted them enough over the issue. To no particular avail, I might add... :D
How many Syrian Generals Are There ?
From TZ, Syrian general among 1,000 refugees fleeing to Turkey (3 Aug 2012):
Quote:
About 1,000 Syrians, including a defecting brigadier-general, have fled to Turkey in the past 24 hours to escape intensifying violence in their country, a Turkish official said on Friday.
The latest group brought the number of Syrian refugees in Turkey to 45,500, up from 44,000 at the end of July, said the official, who asked not to be named. At least 25 military generals are among those who have taken refuge in Turkey.
Nothing unusual here. TZ has been running similar stories for months.
Of more interest is Abdullah Bozkurt's opinion piece, Turkey to shape Syrian army in post-Assad era (3 Aug 2012):
Quote:
Considering that the only effective force keeping Syria together is the armed forces, Turks, Arabs and Americans have agreed on keeping the Syrian army pretty much intact to prevent major disarray in Syrian governance in the post-revolution era after the fall of embattled president Bashar al-Assad -- which looks more imminent.
The agreement will keep Turkey’s southern neighbor from plunging into a civil war along ethnic and sectarian lines while providing the necessary tools for the transitional government to restore stability and maintain public order during the elections and constitution-making process.
...
Turkey and its Arab/Western allies also plan to incorporate the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the largest armed opposition group operating throughout Syria, into the Syrian military after the departure of Assad. The FSA is composed of mostly defectors from the Syrian military and equips itself with arms it seized from Syrian military munitions depots and stockpiles. Some of the arms also come from black market dealings with the support of Turkey, the Gulf countries and the US. The FSA is led by Col. Riad al-Asaad, who is situated in Turkey and coordinates attacks on regime loyalists from there. I spoke on Sunday over a dinner to Ahmet Davutoğlu, who gave me the tally of total defectors so far: 26 generals, 47 colonels and 130 officers of various ranks have fled to Turkey. ... (and much more in article).
Ahmet Davutoğlu (Wiki), currently making nice with the Iraqi Kurds and not so nice with the Iraqi government.
Regards
Mike
Heavier weapons use means weakness
I've heard of CJ Chivers reporting before, IIRC from Libya, but don't normally follow him.
Quote:
...what can be seen is that as the government has been pressured it has incrementally stepped up its campaign by freeing up heavier weapons...The attacks are, in all likelihood, and in a strictly military sense, unsustainable.
For Mr. Assad’s military, scattered in the field in a pitched fight against a strengthening foe, these are bad omens. And they only part of the picture. Add in attrition, add in defections, add in the suspect loyalty of certain commanders and units, add in the psychological and physical tolls of months of sustained head-to-head fighting, factor in the vulnerability of an extended supply line over terrain where the anti-government forces are active and growing more bold, and the far-flung Syrian military looks much less strong than it did only a few months ago, and in a much more precarious position than all the breathless accounts of its continued capacity for organized violence, or the appearance of a fresh weapon system, would tell.
Link:http://cjchivers.com/post/2860544688...pons-watch-the
The video of a helicopter gunship dropping an unguided bomb is strange IMO; that suggests to me in my faraway "armchair" the gunship is afraid to go low and engage, with it's normal weapons and their ammunition stocks are low if a "dumb" bomb was dropped.
Damaged Goods and Diplomacy for Iron
wm,
My thoughts parallel yours about the Turkish-Russian partnership and the Russian-Syrian oil deal. The TZ commentators have been pretty much in line that Russia has to get something tangible to arrive at a negotiated settlement. Adding the Iraqi Kurds to the list of satisfied parties enhances the prospects for that settlement. As you note, there are lots of oil reserves in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Assad, however, is very damaged goods (Levrov says they don't want him). I expect in the final diplomatic picture he will be absent - expendible goods. If that final diplomatic solution avoids the three likely pograms (Alewite, Christian and Shia), expending Assad and his thugs would seem well worth it.
The Hittites were pretty good at diplomacy as well. :)
Regards
Mike