Army rethink or "more of the same"?
It is curious that General Kayani's Independence day speech back in August was missed by my "radar" and I think others here. In the last week I've read short references to it and so a FP Blog article acted as a reminder:
Quote:
the Pakistani military's deadly tryst with jihadists began when Obama was a college student. Rawalpindi remains wedded to using jihadists, even as they point a gun at their own heads, though the Army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, recognizes the existential threat they pose and could be looking for a way out. In August, in his Independence Day address, Kayani condemned rising religious extremism and warned that jihadi militants could push Pakistan toward civil war.
A very brief report on his speech:http://tribune.com.pk/story/421855/m...ns-gen-kayani/
Russia-Pakistan relations
This article opens with:
Quote:
Vladimir Putin was due to visit Pakistan this week, but has postponed his trip indefinitely and given no reason for his decision. Sadhavi Chauhan believes, however, that this setback is no threat to increased Russian cooperation with Pakistan and other Central and South Asian countries.
It ends with:
Quote:
The postponement of Putin’s visit is undoubtedly a symbolic blow to Pakistan's efforts to diversify its strategic allies and do away with its image of bandwagoning with America.... However, it needs to be stressed that Putin has postponed his trip and not cancelled it. ...... There is a definite rapprochement between the two, even though their current bilateral engagement continues to be limited.
Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/sadhavi...p-to-islamabad
In a curious twist of timing the Pakistani Army go to Moscow:
Quote:
...the Russian capital is set to welcome General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani on 3rd October. It is worth noting that his trip continues to be on course despite the cancellation of Putin’s visit.
The Pakistan Challenge for India and America
A short article by Bruce Reidel, hat tip to the Lowy Institute:http://casi.ssc.upenn.edu/iit/bruceriedel
Nothing too startling, although the title suggests some expectation that India will become more engaged.
A few short excerpts:
Quote:
Since 9/11, the U.S. has disbursed over $25 billion in military and economic aid to Islamabad....No other country except Israel has received so much American aid since 2001.
I'm not sure what economic aid means, budget support?
As SWC recognises the role of the Pakistani Army/ISI, this is of value (edited):
Quote:
Finally, there is a shadow of Abbottabad haunting American-Pakistani relations. Days after the SEAL raid that killed the al Qaeda amir, a Pakistani journalist wrote that “of course the generals knew and they knew they could get away with it.” It was either ISI incompetence or complicity, neither of which is comforting.
On reading the article again I do wonder if the impact of drone attacks on radicalisation within Pakistan could alter India's calculus to avoid, along with other factors:
Quote:
An American-Pakistan proxy war could become an Indo-Pakistan proxy war.
Af-Pak: reversing the reverse strategic depth?
Well sometimes things change, worth a read. Hat tip to Ryan Evans. the author ends with:
Quote:
Without Pakistan reversing the reverse strategic depth it has given to the jihadists, this talk of ‘paradigm shift’ will remain hogwash.
Link:http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...-11-2012_pg3_2
Talking not co-operating: update (Post 651)
From FP's Situation Report: From JIEDDO, good news on the flow of bomb-making materials from Pakistan. In December, Situation Report reported on the frustrations of Lt. Gen. Mike Barbero....Well this week, he issued a statement: things have gotten better.
Quote:
While I stand by my testimony [in December], in recent weeks I've seen positive developments in discussions with the Fatima Group, the Pakistan-based producers of calcium ammonium nitrate. Fatima confirmed to me in writing that it has suspended sales of [calcium ammonium nitrate] fertilizer products in the border provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, affecting 228 dealers in those areas. I'm encouraged by their actions and remain hopeful this step will have positive and significant near-term impacts with respect to diminishing the IED threat not only to U.S. and coalition forces on the ground in Afghanistan, but to Pakistan's civilians and security forces as well." Fatima has also agreed to create a "reformulated product" that renders calcium ammonium nitrate "more inert and less explosive," Barbero said, and thereby "diminishing its effectiveness as an IED precursor material," calling such a long-term solution a "true scientific breakthrough.
Working with allies and friends clearly takes time!
A costly war for naught: a comment
A taut critique by Sarah Chayes, which includes:
Quote:
What this account is missing -- what so many such accounts are missing -- is the humility and intellectual honesty to take a candid look inward, to strive for a nuanced assessment of our shared missteps, in what I, like Nasr, believe will be a grim outcome for Afghanistan, and ultimately for international security.
Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...stan?page=full