South China Sea and China (2011-2017)

Current breaking news, posted to Facebook by reporters on a civilian Philippine vessel commissioned to resupply the Marine contingent at Second Thomas Shoal:

Philippine vessel attempted resupply, was obstructed and ordered out of the area by Chinese Coast Guard. Philippine vessel was able to evade by crossing over a section of the shoal that was too shallow for the larger Chinese vessel to pass, and successfully reached destination.

That remains unconfirmed. If true, Filipinos will be amused and Chinese annoyed. Of course the Philippine vessel has to return, and the Chinese may attempt to stop or seize it on the way. More will be known as events progress.

Subsequent report:

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/101...-ayungin-shoal

Nothing really new, except this:

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Journalists said a plane with U.S. Navy markings also flew above the marooned ship.

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No word on whether the Philippine ship has left the area yet.

Bringing media (including AP) along was not a bad idea; will be interesting to see how he coverage comes out. There will be a fair ration of froth from the Chinese side, I imagine.

More coverage on yesterday's encounter:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A2T02K20140330

http://www.rappler.com/nation/54236-...pe-west-ph-sea

The combination of packing a supply ship with reporters and then maneuvering it past the attempts of the Chinese Coast Guard to blockade it is definitely a propaganda win for the Philippines... a transient one for sure, as the garrison at Second Thomas Shoal is as vulnerable as ever and the shipwreck they occupy is still falling apart, but still a win. The officers commanding the Chinese ships are probably getting a fair ration of scheisse over it, and it won't exactly be a career coup for them. It's a small thing in the grand scheme, but a government bent on rousing nationalist fervor to cover its assorted domestic messes will not take embarrassment lightly.

The question now is whether the Chinese will wait for the next resupply run and try again, or whether they'll feel compelled to up the ante to save face.

Aerial image of a Chinese Coast Guard ship trying to keep a Philippine resupply vessel from reaching the garrison at Secont Thomas Shoal... if nothing else, gives an idea of the comparative scale.

http://i22.photobucket.com/albums/b3...20140330-1.jpg

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Originally Posted by Dayuhan

More coverage on yesterday's encounter:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A2T02K20140330

http://www.rappler.com/nation/54236-...pe-west-ph-sea

The combination of packing a supply ship with reporters and then maneuvering it past the attempts of the Chinese Coast Guard to blockade it is definitely a propaganda win for the Philippines... a transient one for sure, as the garrison at Second Thomas Shoal is as vulnerable as ever and the shipwreck they occupy is still falling apart, but still a win. The officers commanding the Chinese ships are probably getting a fair ration of scheisse over it, and it won't exactly be a career coup for them. It's a small thing in the grand scheme, but a government bent on rousing nationalist fervor to cover its assorted domestic messes will not take embarrassment lightly.

The question now is whether the Chinese will wait for the next resupply run and try again, or whether they'll feel compelled to up the ante to save face.

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From the Reuter's article

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"Regardless of how the Philippines packages its lawsuit, the direct cause of the dispute between China and the Philippines is the Philippines' illegal occupation of part of the islands in the South China Sea," Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said in a statement.

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China isn't quite saying they'll ignore the court's ruling, but they sure as heck are hinting that they will.

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"The question of, what if the Philippines gets a favorable ruling? The Philippines has always taken the position that a favorable ruling is a ruling that China, as a member of the community of nations, is bound legally to accept and to implement," government lawyer Francis Jardaleza said.

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If he is right, this will be major win for all concerned to include China in a way because it will demonstrate they still desire to be a valued member of the community of nations; however, if China is overruled and China doesn't respect the ruling it will be interesting to see where this goes. China will lose a lot of legitimacy in the eyes of many nations, especially in East Asia.

Can't recall if this was posted earlier, but it provides a graphic overview of how the Filipino Marines are living on this ship. This definitely counts as hardship duty in my book.

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/...uth-china-sea/

A Game of Shark and Minnow

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To understand how Ayungin (known to the Western world as Second Thomas Shoal) could become contested ground is to confront, in miniature, both the rise of China and the potential future of U.S. foreign policy. It is also to enter into a morass of competing historical, territorial and even moral claims in an area where defining what is true or fair may be no easier than it has proved to be in the Middle East.

The Spratly Islands sprawl over roughly 160,000 square miles in the waters of the coasts of the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan and China — all of whom claim part of the islands.

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Ensure you scroll down to capture all the videos and pictures.

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Originally Posted by Bill Moore

China isn't quite saying they'll ignore the court's ruling, but they sure as heck are hinting that they will...

... if China is overruled and China doesn't respect the ruling it will be interesting to see where this goes. China will lose a lot of legitimacy in the eyes of many nations, especially in East Asia.

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China will certainly ignore any adverse ruling; that's about as close to a given as anything in international relations can be.

I don't know that China has any legitimacy to lose in the eyes of East Asian neighbors, or that they care. The nations that are neutral or supportive of China do not take that position because they think Chinese claims or methods are legitimate, but because they fear China or are dependent on economic links with China.

I don't expect that the will be a ruling on the court case for some time. The immediate concern is how the Chinese will react to the small loss of face in last Saturday's incident, and whether they will choose to raise the pressure on Second Thomas Shoal. The strategy of keeping pressure on but keeping it below any level that might give outside parties a reason to do more than denounce seems has been observed so far, but escalation is always possible.

"Rock solid" non-commitment on disputed territories:

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/04...isputed-waters

The US/Philippine spin:

http://www.dw.de/obama-touts-new-phi...ism/a-17595497

The China spin:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/wo..._133294852.htm

Al Jazeera gives some space to the Philippine left spin:

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-p...348477236.html

My own spin: the talk shows nothing new, and we won't know the impact of the defense deal until we actually see what deployments take place. There's been a lot of talk about possibilities, but little clear indication of what's contemplated. Meanwhile, we can expect the Chinese harassment of Philippine ships to continue as before, using all means short of shooting and deploying primarily Coast Guard rather than PLAN vessels. The strategy to date has been to keep the provocation continuous but always below a threshold that might trigger actual shooting or might provide a reasonable response opening for the US. The US will show presence and observe, the Chinese will carry on as if the US vessels and aircraft weren't there.

More discussion of the US/Philippine agreement...

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/04...w-defense-deal

Main quote:

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The agreement allows the US to rotate ships, aircraft and troops for a period longer than the current maximum of two weeks during joint military exercises by the two nations, a senior military source told Reuters.

The United States is expected to gradually deploy combat ships, a squadron of F18s or F16s and maritime surveillance aircraft, the same source said.

Last year, there were 149 US navy ship visits to the Philippines, up from 68 in the previous year, and that number is likely to rise further under the new pact.

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The "senior military source" is apparently from the Philippines side, and I've seen nothing on the US side to corroborate it, especially on the aircraft deployment. That wouldn't be well received in Beijing, and would probably be greeted with stepped up pressure from China in the Spratlys... if it happens.

Worth noting that despite the much increased tempo of US ship visits (149 in a year equates to a virtually continuous presence) the Chinese were more aggressive in 2013 than in any year past, suggesting that mere presence isn't much of a deterrent.

China sets up a drilling rig off the Paracel islands, sparking a significant confrontation that is likely to go on a while. There's been a round or ramming and water cannon incidents, with reports claiming 80 Chinese and 29 (or 35, claims vary) Vietnamese vessels in the area:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/09/wo...tnam.html?_r=0

On the other side Philippine police arrest 11 Chinese fishermen near a shoal off Pakawan island, in possession of endangered sea turtles.

Philippine version:

http://www.rappler.com/nation/57456-...alf-moon-shoal

Chinese version:

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-s...00102&cid=1103

The Philippines also offered a tender for exploration rights in an area also claimed by China, setting off the usual round of Chinese denunciations. Remains to be seen whether anyone's interested in bidding.:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0NV2BQ20140509

China blames everything on the US, on the grounds that US support is making Vietnam and the Philippines less acquiescent:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A4804Z20140509

And on we go, with no clear idea where it ends...

One thing that is merging is that China's much-hyped "three warfares" strategy, which aims to use media, legal, and psychological warfare to disrupt antagonists, put them at odds with each other, and weaken their resolve, has been an epic failure. Chinese efforts at media and psychological manipulation have been crude and counterproductive: if anything, they have stoked resolve, united their antagonists, and strengthened relationships among Vietnam, the Philippines, and the US. Of course China still has a large force advantage over Vietnam and the Philippines, and is still being very careful to avoid shooting... but purely on the media/lawfare/psychological warfare side they have done themselves more harm than good.

How soon before we hear "intervening to protect ethnic minorities" from Beijing?

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WASHINGTON -- China's top military leader is warning that the U.S. must be objective about the tensions between China and Vietnam, or risk harming relations between Washington and Beijing.

People's Liberation Army's Chief of the General Staff Gen. Fang Fenghui says the U.S. effort to increase focus on the Asia Pacific has stirred up disputes in the East and South China Seas.

Fang was at the Pentagon for meetings with U.S. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey. Dempsey says they talked about the risk of provocation in using military assets in the region.

Fang's visit comes amid rising tensions between Hanoi and Beijing as they square off against each other in the disputed South China Sea.

On Thursday, a 1,000-strong mob stormed a Taiwanese steel mill in Vietnam and hunted down Chinese workers, killing one, attacking scores more and then setting the complex alight, Taiwanese and Vietnamese authorities said.

It was the first deadly incident in a wave of anti-China protests triggered by Beijing's deployment of an oil rig in the long-disputed seas on May 1. Vietnam is angrily demanding that China remove the rig and has sent ships to confront it and a flotilla of Chinese escort ships, triggering fears of possible conflict.

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http://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-wa...asia-tensions/

Chinese leaving Vietnam due to rioting:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...am-hanoi-riots

Putin arrives in China as naval exercises begin:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-rece...ietnam-worries

Unconfirmed reports on a number of websites, generally of questionable reliability, claim China is moving troops to the border with Vietnam:

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/6829...ietnam-border/

An effort to apply the "Putin doctrine" and threaten - or use - military force to "protect Chinese in Vietnam" and (more to the point) to force Vietnam to back off on the oil rig issue? We shall see. The Vietnamese are no pushovers and of course the Chinese know that.

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SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Chinese President Xi Jinping appeared to warn some Asian nations on Wednesday about strengthening military alliances to counter China, saying this would not benefit regional security.

But he also pledged to peacefully resolve China's disputes over territory, which have intensified in recent years, especially in the South and East China Seas.

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http://news.yahoo.com/chinas-xi-says...024633860.html

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China and Russia started a week-long naval exercise in the politically sensitive East China Sea yesterday.

Chinese and Russian units taking part in the Joint Sea-2014 drill will be combined rather than operating separately during the exercise, the first time the Chinese navy has worked so closely with a foreign maritime force, according to Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie. "The mixed confrontation and drill means the exercises will operate more like a real battle," said Li. "It shows the two countries' strategic partnership has entered a high level of cooperation and coordination, even though both Beijing and Moscow insist they are not military allies."

Macau-based military observer Antony Wong Dong said China and Russia had learned from the example of Western countries' joint naval drills, including Nato, where forces were mixed together. It indicated that trust between Beijing and Moscow was increasing.

The drill, in the northern part of the East China Sea, ends on Monday. Forces including 14 ships, two submarines, nine fixed-wing aircraft and six shipboard helicopters will take part, according to a report on the PLA Navy's website.

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http://www.scmp.com/news/china/artic...naval-exercise

The title comes from the Chief of the People's Liberation Army General Staff, General Fang Fenghui, in a press conference after a US-PRC military exchange:

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We do not make trouble. We do not create trouble. But we are not afraid of trouble.

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Link to source, Lowy Institute, within is a link to the full DoD transcript:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...CC=1840075162&

There's confidence building and subverting confidence which this Lowy Institute short comments says is the PRC's strategy:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...hina-Seas.aspx

A taster:

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So the easiest way for Beijing to weaken Washington's power in Asia is to undermine this confidence. And the easiest way to do that is for Beijing to press those friends and allies hard on issues in which America's own interests are not immediately engaged – like a string of maritime disputes in which the US has no direct stake.

By using direct armed pressure in these disputes, China makes its neighbours more eager for US military support, and at the same time makes America less willing to give it, because of the clear risk of a direct US-China clash. In other words, by confronting America's friends with force, China confronts America with the choice between deserting its friends and fighting China. Beijing is betting that, faced with this choice, America will back off and leave its allies and friends unsupported. This will weaken America's alliances and partnerships, undermine US power in Asia, and enhance China's power.

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This line from the Lowry comments:

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By using direct armed pressure in these disputes, China makes its neighbours more eager for US military support

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is inaccurate: the Chinese are actually being quite careful not to apply "armed pressure". What they are doing is applying a very high degree of unarmed pressure. The PLAN ships generally hold back, the bully work is done by Coast Guard ships using water cannon and ramming to literally push others around. Shots are not fired and they have been quite careful to keep force used at a level that doesn't provide an opportunity or excuse for anyone else to push in.

The US has responded by nearly doubling the number of port calls by Navy vessels and signing an agreement with the Philippines that would allow continuous deployments, but the Chinese have not been bluffed and if anything have ratcheted up the level of provocation.

It's an interesting question for the US... how exactly do you respond to aggressive but unarmed confrontation by nominally civilian vessels?

I read today that a Philippine company is planning to drill on the disputed Reed Bank, but that of course will mean leasing a rig, which may be difficult to do under the circumstances. We shall see.

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China has accused Vietnam of ramming its ships more than 1,400 times in a disputed part of the South China Sea and said while it wanted good relations with its neighbour, it would not abandon principles to achieve that.

China claims most of the South China Sea and has over the past two years been taking various steps to assert its claim, angering Vietnam and the Philippines in particular.

Shortly after China brought its oil platform into the area, Vietnam sent a large number of vessels into the area, China's Foreign Ministry said on Sunday.

"There were as many as 63 Vietnamese vessels in the area at the peak, attempting to break through China's cordon and ramming the Chinese government ships a total of 1,416 times," the ministry said.

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http://m.aljazeera.com/story/201469132238719725

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BEIJING (Reuters) - China denounced Vietnam and the Philippines on Monday for getting together on a disputed island in the South China Sea to play soccer and volleyball, calling it "a clumsy farce" and demanded both countries stop causing trouble.

The comments by a foreign ministry spokeswoman were China's first response to the gathering on the Vietnamese-held island of Southwest Cay on Sunday.

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http://news.yahoo.com/china-says-vie...025254315.html

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China plans artificial island in disputed Spratlys chain in South China Sea
The move indicates a shift from defence to offence in the East and South China Sea

China is looking to expand its biggest installation in the Spratly Islands into a fully formed artificial island, complete with airstrip and sea port, to better project its military strength in the South China Sea, a Chinese scholar and a Chinese navy expert have said.

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The proposal to build an artificial island there had been submitted to the central government, said Jin Canrong , a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. The artificial island would be at least double the size of the US military base of Diego Garcia, a remote coral atoll occupying an area of 44 square kilometres in the middle of the Indian Ocean, Jin added.

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Li Jie, a naval expert from the Chinese Naval Research Institute, said the expanded island would include the airstrip and port. After the expansion the island would continue to house the observation post and to provide military supplies and assistance, he said.

A retired People's Liberation Army senior colonel, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the construction of a landing strip on Fiery Cross Reef would allow China to better prepare for the establishment of an air defence identification zone over the South China Sea.

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https://www.scmp.com/sites/default/f...?itok=XXnw9URI

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/artic...a-sea?page=all

Anyone think New Zealand is having second thoughts?

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MANILA, Philippines (AP) — The Philippine president said Tuesday his country's ill-equipped military will receive its first new fighter jets in nearly a decade next year to help defend the country's territory.

President Benigno Aquino III said two of 12 FA-50 multi-purpose fighters will be delivered by their South Korean manufacturer next year and the rest are expected to follow in the next three years. The Philippines has scrambled to modernize its military, one of Asia's weakest, amid increasingly tense territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea.

Aquino said the Philippines has had no fighter jets for territorial defense since a fleet of F-5 jets was decommissioned in 2005. The anemic air force is being strengthened with the purchase of new assault helicopters, long-range patrol aircraft and C130 cargo planes, he said.

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http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ote=1&p=157592

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Japan's cabinet has approved a landmark change in security policy, paving the way for its military to fight overseas.

Under its constitution, Japan is barred from using force to resolve conflicts except in cases of self-defence.

But a reinterpretation of the law will now allow "collective self-defence" - using force to defend allies under attack.

PM Shinzo Abe has been pushing hard for the move, arguing Japan needs to adapt to a changing security environment.

"No matter what the circumstances, I will protect Japanese people's lives and peaceful existence," he told journalists after the change was approved.

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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-28086002

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China's neighbors are increasingly anxious that Beijing's maritime disputes with countries like Vietnam and the Philippines will lead to military conflict, a US research group said in findings released Monday.

Even in China itself, polling showed that 62 percent of the public worried that territorial disputes between China and its neighbors could lead to an armed conflict, according to a broad study conducted in 44 countries by the Pew Research Center.

"This year in all 11 Asian nations polled, roughly half or more say they are concerned that territorial disputes between China and its neighbors will lead to a military conflict," the study found.

At 93 percent, Filipinos were most concerned, followed by the Japanese at 85 percent, Vietnamese at 84 percent and South Koreans at 83 percent, according to Pew.

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http://news.yahoo.com/asia-fears-chi...222710340.html

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BEIJING (Reuters) - China can build whatever it wants on its islands in the South China Sea, a senior Chinese official said on Monday, rejecting proposals ahead of a key regional meeting to freeze any activity that may raise tensions in disputed waters there.

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Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/r-chi...#ixzz39REbdudR