Did China Blink in the South China Sea?
I overlooked posting this National Interest article 'Did China Blink in the South China Sea' published on the 27th July 2014:http://nationalinterest.org/feature/...hina-sea-10956
It starts with:
Quote:
For seventy-five days starting from May 2, China unilaterally deployed its
US$1 billion oil rig HYSY-981 to drill in waters lying within Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The platform was originally scheduled to stay until August 15, but on July 15, China announced that the rig had completed its work and would be relocated to Hainan Island. The removal of the drilling rig is as unilateral and unexpected as its deployment. When the platform was parked in the contested area, it sparked the worst crisis since 1988 in Sino-Vietnamese relations.
The author offers three plausible explanations why China blinked. He ends with:
Quote:
The outcome of this crisis suggests that China is not much different from other actors—it also has its own fear of escalation.
US State Department assesses China’s nine-dashed line
Hat tip to Australia's Lowy Institute for the pointer to this publication, described as:
Quote:
...it is a must-read for anyone interested in maritime security, the law of the sea, or China's foreign policy.....There are also some great maps in the report. And at only 26 pages it is worth the read.
Link to report:http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/234936.pdf
Link to Lowy Institute's short commentary:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...39632-59375461
An empty "ace in the hole"
Quote:
Originally Posted by
AdamG
AdamG,
Given the reported closeness between China and Russia of late, often with a stress on commerce and trade, does Vietnam really have a claim upon Russian support? Yes, Russia is in the process of selling Kilo class SSK to Vietnam and offers harbour facilities @ cam Ranh Bay. Then's there a strong element of solidarity between China and Russia politically over so many international issues, often in conflict with the USA.
Taking a risk by observing
Via Reuters:
Quote:
A Japanese military patrol plane circled over disputed parts of the South China Sea on Tuesday at the start of an exercise with the Philippine military that has irked China.According to Japanese and Philippine officials, the Japanese P3-C Orion surveillance plane, with three Filipino guest crew members, flew at 5,000 feet (1,524 m) above the edge of Reed Bank, an energy-rich area that is claimed by both China and the Philippines. It was accompanied by a smaller Philippine patrol aircraft.
More on this maritime SAR exercise:http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...P30H120150623?
Are we ignoring the biggest island: Taiwan (RoC)?
Quote:
Missing from discussions at last week's US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) was Taiwan's significance in China's land reclamation efforts in the South China Sea, said defense analysts.Held annually since 2009, the S&ED is a high-level government meeting set alternatively in each other's capital.
With the recent reporting on PRC building up some islands in The Spratley's we missed what Taiwan (RoC) was doing:
Quote:
current expansion projects on Taiwan-controlled Taiping Island (Itu Abu), which include lengthening the runway to accommodate larger aircraft (currently only C-130s can resupply the island), and the construction of a dock capable of handling 3,000-ton vessels, ostensibly for Taiwan's new coast guard cutters.
Link:http://www.defensenews.com/story/def...-pla/29260999/