More police, less soldiers
Within an article on scaling down the military presence in Kashmir and placing the emphasis on the police are several facts, here are some:
Quote:
The principal reason to consider scaling back the Army’s counter-insurgency presence in Kashmir is simple: there isn’t an insurgency to be fought. Ever since the 2001-2002 near-war between India and Pakistan, levels of violence in the State have fallen steadily. In 2001, as many as 1,067 civilians, 590 security forces personnel, and 2,850 terrorists were killed in fighting. The numbers fell in 2003 to 658 civilians, 338 security forces and 1,546 terrorists. Last year’s numbers, the authoritative South Asia Terrorism Portal records, were 20 civilians, 61 security forces and 100 terrorists.
In population-adjusted terms, the insurgency in J&K cost 1.51 lives per 100,000 persons of its population, lower than the homicide rate in Delhi or Haryana. The State’s total firearms fatalities were well below those in Uttar Pradesh (1,575 in 2012) or Bihar (681) or even West Bengal (269).
Link:http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead...le5597916.ece?
Zeal for insurgency wanes among former Kashmir militants
One of the BBC's reporters has been to Azad Kashmir Pakistan-administered) and reports:
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Pakistani army chief Raheel Sharif's recent statement that "Pakistan and Kashmir are inseparable" has added to tensions between India and Pakistan. The two nuclear-armed neighbours each claim Kashmir in its entirety, and occupy different parts of it. But as the BBC's M Ilyas Khan discovered on a recent visit to Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistani-administered Kashmir and the base camp for the insurgency, all is unusually quiet.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-33359800
The "devils in the detail":Location, timing and method
A detailed article by Shashank Joshi (RUSI) via the Australian Lowy Institute's email briefing:
Quote:
On 27 July, three (Kashmiri) militants crossed from Pakistan into the Indian state of Punjab,
according to GPS sets they were carrying. They planted five IEDs on a railway track, targeted bus passengers and holed up in a police station in Gurdaspur 20km from the border, eventually killing seven Indians. The attackers were themselves killed by local police after a day's siege.
Link:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...d-method.aspx?
India and Pakistan: the long view
a longish article, but covers a lot (I think, obviously)
http://brownpundits.blogspot.com/201...long-view.html
Non-lethal force, more PR for the insurgents
Insight into one aspect of the disorder in Kashmir via Katoh's comment on a SWJ article, not on Kashmir:
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Lately in the militancy affected Kashmir Valley in India there was a wave of unrest post the killing of a 22 year old militant commander who had risen to fame on account of his good looks, ISIS style of videographed threat messages (given without masking his face) and his adroit use of social media.
The police forces in Kashmir used Pellet guns to quell the unrest since protests in Kashmir very quickly and often assume a hue of deadly violence. Use of these guns had been introduced in 2010 to reduce the fatalities among rioting supporters of militants.
However, this non lethal weapon resulted in a number of eye injuries on account of the large crowds on the streets including bystanders. Human nature being what it is, a dead rioter goes out of public gaze in a short time. If the number of fatalities is large then the media does not even publicise names. However young people sans their previous malevolent disposition and lying on a hospital bed with bandages over one/both eyes/bloodshot eyes lead to an outpouring of pity.
Consequently the Pellet Gun which was introduced in Kashmir with good intentions got demonized by local politicians, NGOs and the media.
Link:http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art...egular-warfare
Keeping the "pot" bubbling: the hidden hand
The unrest in Kashmir this summer has been far greater than usual, notably the response to the death of a young, popular Kashmiri militant in July and often builds up before the annual UN General Assembly meeting.
An Indian think tank's research suggests deaths have dropped:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CspBVQ1WAAAxfVc.jpg:large
See:http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countr...casualties.htm
Even before today's attack some suspected the Pakistani military have renewed the "militant" option:http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/pakis...irth-of-jihad/
Last night un-named "militants" upped the temperature, as the BBC reports in this backgrounder:
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Militants have attacked an army base in Indian-administered Kashmir, killing at least 17 soldiers, the army says.All four of the attackers were killed. Carrying guns and grenades they stormed a base in Uri, close to the Line of Control with Pakistan in a pre-dawn ambush.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-37399969
India's strategic restraint on Kashmir
An excellent explanation of the current crisis by Shashank Joshi, via the Australian blog Lowy Interpreter:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...n-Kashmir.aspx
Point to note:
Quote:
The Uri attack killed 18 soldiers, but this has to be understood in the context of the death of 135 members of Indian security forces this year alone, including 64 in Kashmir.