46 years of terrorist attacks in Europe, visualized
A WaPo article, with many graphics; as the sub-title says:
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From 1970 to 2016: 5,215 people died from bombings. 2,463 from assassinations. 2,270 from assaults. 957 from hostage situations. 183 from hijackings. 88 from building attacks. Thousands wounded or missing.
Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...ism-in-europe/
Continental EU Anti-Terrorism Operations
No pre-existing thread for the following, so this opening tale of recidivist ISIS miscreants.
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Police in the Netherlands have arrested seven men over an alleged plot to carry out what they describe as a major terrorist attack involving guns and explosives.
Police say the men were trying to source AK47s, hand grenades and bomb materials to carry out their attack.
The men, aged between 21 and 34, were arrested on Thursday.
Three had been arrested previously for trying to travel abroad to join foreign militants.
Prosecutors say the man at the centre of the group is a 34-year-old of Iraqi origin, who was convicted in 2017 for trying to travel to fight for the Islamic State group.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45673221
Europe to Terrorists: It’s No More Monsieur Nice Guy
A WSJ commentary by Thomas Hegghammer, a Norwegian SME on CT; it may be behind a registration wall. He ends with:
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This hardening of European attitudes toward terrorism didn’t happen overnight. It’s part of a longer trend that began after 9/11 and accelerated starting in 2012, when European foreign fighters started going to Syria in large numbers. We should not exaggerate its repressive character. Torture and other egregious practices aren’t on the table, and the hard measures have been accompanied by many soft programs to prevent and mitigate violent extremism. The hardening is also uneven, with France adopting a tougher approach than countries like Sweden. Still, the changes are substantial and amount to a paradigm shift in European counterterrorism. It’s still early, but the new approach appears to be working. There are fewer European jihadists fighting on foreign battlefields. Domestic attacks and casualties are substantially down in 2018—not because plotting has decreased, but because authorities are foiling more attempts. For the longer term, the main challenge will be preventing militants who come out of prison from regrouping.
Europe’s struggle with jihadism is far from over. The new, more muscular approach poses serious questions about civil liberties, minority rights and radicalization in prisons. But Europe can no longer be described as soft on terrorism.
Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-...guy-1538950931
A Corbyn Government Would Be a Terrorist Threat to the Western World
A Corbyn Government Would Be a Terrorist Threat to the Western World
https://besacenter.org/perspectives-...rorist-threat/
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The intense public discussion on anti-Semitism in the UK Labour party has almost entirely overshadowed the problem of the huge risk a Corbyn-led government would represent to the Western world. Corbyn, a terrorist sympathizer, and various problematic associates of his would gain access to intelligence gathered by the British security services. How safe would it then be for other Western countries to continue to share high-level intelligence with their British colleagues?
A Jewish Think Tank focused on informing Israeli leaders, so clearly bias may be a factor in this analysis. Furthermore, a long history of bad blood between Israel and UK. Nonetheless, like to hear what our friends from the UK think? Complete BS? Half truths?
A Corbyn Government Would Be a Terrorist Threat to the Western World: a reply
I have now read the article cited twice, whilst I understand his arguments he is clearly not a UK voter.
The furore over 'anti-Semitism in the UK Labour party' was largely an internal matter in the Labour Movement, with very little agreement and a "fudge" at the end. Before Jeremy Corbyn became the Labour Party leader the internal pro-Israeli lobby dominated; now their opponents are a significant minority and believe there is a substantial part of the electorate who support them. Those who do not support the Leader are either quiet or plan to leave. Others naively think the Leader will change "his spots" when Labour wins a General Election.
Foreign policy, with the exception of Brexit, is not an electoral priority and for this Labour Party winning the election comes first.
Yes many opponents of Jeremy C. have referred to his past support for terrorists and other "far left" causes. This "mud-slugging" has had little effect on the electorate so far. The details of intelligence sharing have been mentioned by a few. Jeremy's appeal is to a sizeable part of the electorate, a good number of whom think he is "new" and is actually a socialist - which the Labour Party wasn't. Polling suggests outside London and a few cities Jeremy's appeal is very limited, especially when so many 'traditional' Labour voters supported Brexit - an issue on which he'd prefer not to talk about.
Is Jeremy C. a 'terrorist threat to the Western World' as shared intelligence may no longer be safe. How much "raw" secret intelligence is actually given to senior ministers? It is difficult to see him following current UK national foreign and security policy. A more likely and significant step by Prime Minister Jeremy C. IMHO would be to end the patrolling of the UK's SSBNs. He has been a life-long advocate of nuclear disarmament after all.
Does that make him a 'terrorist threat to the Western World'? No, it does not. The "times are a changing" and he could be elected as Prime Minister. Somehow I doubt he shares the conventional 'establishment' view on the terrorist threat, let alone it's causes. President Trump actions have continued the slide in public support for the USA; I know the US Embassy here states this is not reflected in polling data.
He would be a threat to the usual Anglo-Israeli relationship, but that is not the 'Western World' as much as the author thinks it should be. An anti-Israel stance might actually gain him more votes in the big cities and ensure the non-Labour left work hard to support his election.
Anyway this is a strange question given the indications that President Trump reportedly neglects his communication security and the report he has already given away secret information on an Israeli operation against ISIS (which was subject of a post on a thread awhile back).
ISIS returnees: three European reports
A three part series of articles on the response to the prospect and reality of returning ISIS fighters, plus dependents, to Belgium, France and the UK by Eleanor Beevor (now at IISS, London).
She starts with Belgium:
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It’s strange to think that at one point, Belgian authorities were actually
happy to see a large number of young people abandon their European homeland for the battlefields of Syria. This was back in 2012, and many of those leaving had been irritants to Belgian police for their petty crime and anti-social behaviour. Their departure actually led to a drop in the crime rate. But soon, Belgium’s security forces realised that their loss of one problem would soon be replaced with a much greater one. Those young wannabe jihadists were far from guaranteed to stay in Syria. And fears began to proliferate of what they might do on Belgian soil when they returned.
Link:https://www.albawaba.com/news/how-be...part-i-1166898
Then the French report starts with:
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In 2016, a highly controversial book was published featuring a series of interviews with the then-French President Francois Hollande. Hollande, a man of the Socialist left-wing party, let loose a number of
unexpected soundbites.
But one that was met with particular shock abroad was his blunt admission that French intelligence services had “…
a list of people who are believed to be responsible for hostage takings or acts against our interests”. If security forces located those individuals, he said, they had his permission to “…
take revenge measures”. Those on the list were French citizens who had left to join ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
Link:https://www.albawaba.com/news/how-fr...art-ii-1167306
Finally to the UK, she starts with:
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The words “The Beatles” have been splashed across the UK’s headlines for the past few days. But it is for a discomforting reason that has nothing to do with the British music legends.
The Beatles in question were a four-man group of young British men who travelled to Syria to join ISIS. And while 800 UK citizens left to join the terrorist group, none of the others received anything like the attention that this quartet did.
Link:https://www.albawaba.com/news/how-br...rt-iii-1167690
Petter Nesser on Foiled Terrorist Plots
A two-part Q&A with Norwegian SME Peter Nesser, who makes an important point at the start:
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We need to include the foiled attacks to gain a better understanding of the threat. If we only look at launched attacks, we risk being unprepared to face tomorrow’s threat.
(Later) If we take a look at the foiled plots in 2018 alone, there is no doubt that IS supporters have had ambitions to carry out large-scale attacks in Europe.
Link:https://eeradicalization.com/a-conve...nesser-part-1/
In part two:
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I expect the threat in the near future to continue along the same lines, but with more stealth and new uses of technology.(On returning foreign fighters) Only a minority among those who return will probably take part in international terrorism in the future, but those who do can be capable of doing a lot of damage.
Link:https://eeradicalization.com/a-conve...-plots-part-2/
Europe hasn’t won the war on terror
Peter Nesser has an article, giving an overview of European terrorism and it features a chart, which defies copying.
Link:https://www.politico.eu/article/euro...war-on-terror/
Guns are a problem here too - even century old revolvers
As the Strasbourg killer illustrated Europe has a problem with antique firearms, his revolver was over a hundred years old.
Then I found via Twitter an EU-funded research project, Project Safte on Firearms and Terrorism in Europe. There is a free book, Triggering Terror: Illicit Gun Markets and Firearms Acquisition of Terrorist Networks in Europe, with individual chapters on several European nations.
Link:https://www.flemishpeaceinstitute.eu/safte/publications
In the French chapter on pgs 42-44 there is a Table 6 'Firearms seized in recent attacks inspired by radical Islamist'.
Link:https://www.flemishpeaceinstitute.eu...fte_france.pdfilogies
How many European terrorists with prior petty and violent criminal behaviour?
Returning foreign fighters MIGHT not be a threat
Via Twitter from Belgium somewhat startling until explained:
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We’ve got interesting figures from the Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis in in Belgium (OCAD/OCAM). Of the 100 foreign terrorist fighters (FTF) back on Belgian soil, 75% of males and 90% of females aren’t considered as a serious terrorist threat anymore. On a total of 422 fully identified Belgian FTFs, 130 have left the war. 10 have died subsequently (mostly by committing attacks), and 20 are detained in other countries. Of those back in Belgium, 40 are imprisoned (of whom only 2 women) and of those free, 60% are male.
Most of the FTF who have returned in Belgium, did so early on - i.e. prior to the June 2014 declaration of the caliphate by Islamic State. So their degree of disengagement might not be representative for FTFs eventually returning now.
OCAD/OCAM doesn’t expect a massive return of Belgian FTF anymore. Of the 292 who didn’t come back, 141 were reportedly killed. But in reality, that figure is thought to be significantly higher by now.
In terms of terrorist threat, home grown terrorist fighters are considered a much more important problem in Belgium nowadays than FTFs who have returned. About 50 of these FTF are listed as a possible terrorist threat by OCAD/OCAM, and only 2/3 is currently behind bars.
Having not heard of this body here is their website, in English; which does not show such a report:http://www.comiteri.be/index.php/en/...eat-assessment