Has there been a generational change?
Earlier models of insurgency spend a great deal of time building and preserving a cell structure while establishing a shadow government, a (semi-)legitimate political front, and eventually creating 'no-go' areas within the region. There has to be some form of sanctuary (historically geographical, and often in a different sovereign region) from the beginning, and usually external financial and material support.
AQ has written a new script. Their public statements assert that their plan is that
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"NO one should feel safe without submitting to Islam, and those who refuse to submit must pay a high price. The Islamist movement must aim to turn the world into a series of "wildernesses" where only those under jihadi rule enjoy security."
, Sheik Abu-Bakar Naji, in "Governance in the Wilderness". Rather than methodicly building up their capabilities, they are trying to disrupt their opponents and move in to the security void. They are not bothering with much in the way of a legitimate political front in the system (like Sinn Fein), but establishing a new political system in vacuums (like the Taliban). Much of this is done exploiting 'wannabes', viral disemination of TTPs, and rather than doing things themselves, encouraging others to do things for them.
What has stayed the same; the need for sanctuaries (although some aspects of traditional sanctuaries have migrated into the internet), and the need for financial and material support. Zakat (Islamic charitable donations mandated by the Koran) is a natural source of income, as they sell themselves as a "holy" cause, and historically, terrorists routinely use conventional crime as income source. I'm not saying AQ is in the opium business, but they would surely be tempted by it, and if their not in it, the 'good Muslims' in the trade have to make Zakat somewhere... Of course, there are many illicit and profitable trafficks in Central Asia, one of the more novel ones being the smuggling of birds of prey.
I think the AQ model is well suited to a theologically based movement, which explains the departure from the traditional models which were ideologically and politically based.
Not to put too fine a point on it...
Van,
Are we talking of the Taliban in AFG, or are we talking AQ and some sort of "global insurgency"? You seem to float between the two.
I know the two are related in some ways but they are not synonymous.
To characterize the AQ ideology (movement if you want) writ large as a Global insurgency would seem to stretch the definition of insurgency beyond its useful purpose. AQ is most at odds with the muslim world most of all. It seeks a fundamental revival that it sees as only possible with the removal of western influence.
Taliban is fighting the newly constituted government, it serves the purposes of AQ, but it can more properly be characterized as an insurgency. However, I don't see why we would deem people who blow themselves up as some new form of insurgency. Rather tactics, despicable in the sense that individuals are manipulated in such a way and certainly a difficult tactical challenge, but don't see how it fundamentally changes the way we think about COIN
If you take away the fact that your dealling with
human beings, whats the difference between IED's,VBIED's, SB's except the preparation and deployment process.
Wouldn't you still want to focus on the Pre-prep and prep phases just the same. It may sound callous but is it not still a reality?
"Inside the Taliban," Mail & Guardian (ZAF) Online, 23 Dec 08
Some highlights from this article....
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..."Salar is the new Falluja," said Qomendan Hemmet emphatically. "The Americans and the Afghan army control the highway and 5m on each side. The rest is ours." Salar district in Wardak province lies 80km south of Kabul. The Kandahar-Kabul passing through it is a major supply line for United States and Nato troops. Like the Baghdad-Fallujah road, it is littered with holes from improvised explosive devices and carcasses of burnt-out Nato supply trucks and containers....
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Hemmet is a Taliban veteran who started fighting against the Northern Alliance forces in the mid-Nineties, when he was 17. He went into hiding after the capital fell, becoming the commander of the Salar district after the previous leader died three years ago. "Against the Northern Alliance we fought face to face. This war is more difficult, the enemy controls the skies and they have many weapons. Sometimes I am scared. But we yearn for fighting the kafirs [unbelievers]. It's a joyful thing."
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Mullah Muhamadi, one of Hemmet's men, arrives wearing a long leather jacket and big turban. "This is not just a guerrilla war, and it's not an organised war with fronts," he said. "It's both. "When we control a province we must provide service to the people. We want to show them we can rule, and we are ready for when we take over Kabul, that we have learned from our mistakes." Muhamadi said his group aimed to carry out about three attacks a week, but they did not always have enough ammunition. "Each area has a different strategy. Here it's attacking the main road, but everywhere in this province the countryside is in our control."
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He said the Taliban's main problems were bandits and land disputes, and that in solving them "we win the hearts of the people". "We went from the jihad to the government and now we are in the jihad again. We have learned from our mistakes. The leaders are the same but the fighters are new and they don't want to be like those who ruled and made mistakes."
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"I convince them that the Taliban are coming. We use all the facilities we have, our words and our pens to recruit for the movement, in the university, the bazaar and everywhere in the city." The irony is that he is using the freedom of speech provided by the Afghan government. "There is free speech now and we are not scared of the government. We work cautiously, we talk to the people as if we are talking about political and daily issues. The government is too weak to monitor us."
Mujahid delink from Taliban
http://pakobserver.net/200905/01/news/topstories04.asp
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Afghan insurgents delink from Taliban
Akhtar Jamal
Islamabad—Afghan insurgents known as “Talilban” are apparently disassociating themselves from more brutal Taliban militants in Pakistan and have even stopped calling themselves as Taliban.
A close study of statements issued by Afghan Taliban showed that for some time they have ceased using the word Taliban and have began calling themselves as “Mujahideen of Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.”
According to area experts the move is apparently designed to de-link with brutal Taliban who are getting highly unpopular due to recent atrocious moves and horrifying killings of kidnapped prisoners.
Afghan experts saye that Mullah Omar and his close acquaintances had more than once denounced any action inside Pakistan and had ordered concentration only against “occupation foreign forces.”
More at the link. Very interesting development, and frankly, one I'd expected long before this. Very few places in A-stan are the Taliban well-loved.
Not a good subject for armchair analysts ...
e.g., JMM. But below are some Wiki links (which might be used as a start to a lot of Googling). Probably best to keep in mind that Taliban generically means students - so, the "Taliban" are not a monolith.
Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM, English: Movement for the Enforcement of Islamic Law) - These are the folks in Swat and Buner creating recent news, led by Sufi Muhammad bin Alhazrat Hassan (commonly Maulana Sufi Muhammad), and his son in law Maulana Qazi Fazlullah. This group is an offshoot from Jamaat-e-Islami (Pakistani political party founded in 1941 by Syed Abul A'ala Maududi).
All above not to be confused with Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP; Students' Movement of Pakistan) is a mainstream Taliban militant umbrella group in Pakistan, with apparent closer ties to Mullah Omar and UBL. Baitullah Mehsud is the leader of the pack, which came together ca. 2007-2009.
All of this gets more complicated, as per the following from the last link:
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[edit] Leadership dispute
On March 27, 2009, Pakistan's Daily Times reported that Baitullah Mehsud's group was engaged in a dispute with a group lead by Qari Zainuddin Mehsud for control of South Waziristan.[38] The Daily Times described Qari Zainuddin as the "self-appointed successor of Taliban commander Abdullah Mehsud." Both groups had distributed pamphlets leveling accusations against the other groups' leader. Qari Zainuddin stated that Baitullah's group was not practicing jihad because Islam forbids suicide attacks. Baitullah's pamphlet claimed that Qari Zainuddin was a government puppet and a traitor to Islam and to the Mehsud tribe.[38] Qari Zainuddin was reported to have the support of Maulvi Nazir, a senior Taliban leader, and to have allied with the Bhittani tribe.[38]
Note 38 sources to this article.
Anyway, the "Taliban" are not a monolith - with quite a bit of linking and de-linking in "its" history.
Best I can do from my armchair on a Sunday afternoon.