What Caused The Crime Decline?
A new paper from the Brennan Center for Justice (USA), eighty pages minus tables etc and not opened yet here:https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/...me_Decline.pdf
From the foreword:
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This report addresses a critical question: What caused the American crime decline? Was it incarceration? Was it policing? Or was it something else? This groundbreaking empirical analysis from the Brennan Center shows that, on examination, the easy answers do not explain incarceration’s effect on crime.
This report presents a rigorous and sophisticated empirical analysis performed on the most recent, comprehensive dataset to date.The authors conclude that incarceration had relatively little to do with the crime decline. They find that the dramatic increases in incarceration have had a limited, diminishing effect on crime. And they have quantified those minimal benefits. At today’s high incarceration rates, continuing to incarcerate more people has almost no effect on reducing crime.
Chicago is out of control?
Thanks to a "lurker" I found these charts on the mismatch between public perceptions and recorded crime:https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cri...erception-gap/
This then prompted another "lurker" to respond:
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Crime rates continue to drop. The exceptions are cities such as Chicago and Baltimore where crime is increasing and spreading. Chicago is out of control.
Another responded:
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Today, in America… That perception and belief is driven primarily by what is “right outside one‘s front door” as well as conveyed to them by what others say… Most especially media and politicians. Yes, UCR Part I statistics are definitely showing reduction… In all categories… Some exception to homicide and violent crime depending on the neighborhood, City, culture, month, quarter or year. But what damn difference do statistics make when a person‘s perception drives their belief.