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ATO spox: Total number of ceasefire violations in Mariupol sector: 29. Sixteen featured heavy weapons
ATO spox: Ukrainian troops engaged in shootout with the militants in the vicinity of Berezove village
Bold case: "In the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act, Russia explicitly accepted NATO enlargement. Debate closed!" https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/750724827183517696 …
Russian party is on again.....
Avdiivka, 2 Ukraine soldiers KIA, 3 WIA under Russian bombing today.
https://twitter.com/ukrtwinews/statu...32906562195456 …
13:53 #Avdiivka @tiamat007 Ongoing battle in the direction of #Promka, one can hear heavy explosions
Avdiivka: explosions, battle in the area of Promka
"Donetsk republic" cuts all for scrap metal: private offer to sale rails for 0.124 US Dollar per kilo.
Torez, occupied Donbas, Plant of Surfacing Hard Alloys. Robbed in 2014, doesn't work anymore.
Torez, occupied Donbas, Electrotechnical plant with once 80% of export.
Doesnt work for >2 years.
Russian mercenary "vodka moment".....
Greystone-Blackwater-Baltic female snipers - all KIA in Ukraine.
Even Maj-Gen Randy Kee, Director Strategy, Pentagon
Russian Security Council chief praises combat readiness of Pskov airborne division | TASS
http://tass.ru/en/defense/886639 …
Ydays presser on Patrushev visit to Pskov did not mention inspecting 76th.
Lots of high-level inspections to units lately.
Lukashenko has been adept at playing both sides. He is well aware that the EU would be less critical of a Russian incursion into Belarus than it was over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Belarus is more integrated into the Russian-led economic and security architecture than Ukraine was (CSTO, EEU), and Belarus' role in Russia's aerospace defense is even more vital than Crimea. Nevertheless, we have seen increasing attempts by Lukashenko to garner Western interest in the hope of counter-balancing Russia and maintaining as much independence as possible. As long as Putin is invested in Ukraine and Syria, and as long as the Kazakhs are agitating more, Lukashenko can slacken the leash.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Putin has probably concluded from the Ukrainian situation that proximity, economic integration, political and intelligence infiltration and forward deployment of forces is not enough to guarantee "loyalty". He secured Crimea but lost most of Ukraine and was dealt a severe intelligence (technology secrets) and military (industrial capacity) blow, all because Yanukovych did not "obey orders". Putin won't make the same mistake in Belarus.
Defense in depth, no? In practice, the Soviets' notion of defense was to keep attacking by way of counter-offensives, and even their planned response to a NATO invasion was to march west...Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
So Kaliningrad is the staging area for the first line to prevent NATO from reaching the second line in Belarus?
Belarus is as integral to Russian security as Canada is to the United States, and I would go so far as to say that while the loss of Kaliningrad might not warrant "nuclear de-escalation", a NATO drive into Belarus certainly would.
I read the Bloomberg article, but it doesn't add anything new to the debate, other than some more detail on Russia's opposition to NATO BMD in East-Central Europe, which I surprisingly agree with. Of course, Bloomberg's reporting is very political and I imagine that the billionaire opposes BMD in Europe and the more conciliatory EPAA.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
The impetus for BMD was to protect the United States against blackmail or a small strike from a rogue state (such as North Korea, Iran or Syria), an accidental launch (e.g. Black Brant) or one by a rogue local commander. NATO BMD is supposedly intended to protect NATO from Iran, even though Iran's likely targets are Israel, the Gulf Arab states and US bases in CENTCOM.
Nuclear warfare experts (CSIS) conclude that BMD today, while hardly capable of stopping a full strategic exchange, could whittle down a second strike. And unless Russian officers are granted access to Aegis Ashore sites, along the lines of Nunn-Lugar, they may very well assume that the sites can also be used for offensive purposes.
From what I can see, Russia will have a very slow recovery to stagnation or slow growth and only exclusion from SWIFT or another serious financial measure will force Putin to choose between guns and butter.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Azor...double check the actual deployment of Soviet troop units in that second line of defensive bases that started in Poland ........based on the very last Soviet military exercise conducted in mid 1980s the largest ever held in the GDR.....which was the main Soviet attack being actually exercised those Polish units were the follow on forces once the attack punched through NATO defenses or if NATO pushed back they were the defensive blocking forces....Quote:
Originally Posted by Azor
Kaliningrad......they in fact would "de-escalate over it.....why... it is they main Baltic fleet center, and if I am not so wrong they plan shortly to move their tactical ballistic nuclear missiles into it to counter NATO moves as well as being their Baltic air denial bubble ........via S300/400s.....
Yes I know. But Russia no longer has the same cordon sanitaire that the Warsaw Pact provided.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Kaliningrad serves to obstruct any attempt to marshal forces in the Baltics for an invasion, but if Sweden and Finland joined NATO, the Baltics would be transformed from a vulnerable and partly isolated flank to a bridgehead.
I would still say that Kaliningrad is expendable. Its transformation into a military camp bristling with long-range offensive and defensive systems means that it frustrates any attempt to bypass it. This is not to say that Russia would cede sovereignty of the oblast in the event of a conventional loss NATO, but Kaliningrad is more of a forward operating base and a recent war prize like the Kuriles but unlike say Crimea.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
As for the Baltic Fleet, it receives the least resources of all of Russia's seaborne units and is more than capable of sealing off the eastern Baltic Sea even under heavy fire. Note that its submarine units are based in St. Petersburg not Kaliningrad...
AND the distance between Kaliningrad to the actual RF border is again what ...roughly max 150kms....it is exactly this point that bothers NATO....the new so called "Fulda Gap" that cuts Poland off from the Baltics.Quote:
Originally Posted by Azor
If that gap is sufficiently blocked then there is no land route for NATO into the Baltics that is the importance of Kaliningrad---one half of a pincer movement.
Atamanshchina spreading among Russia’s hybrid military force in Ukraine’s Donbas
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/07/0...raines-donbas/ …
I have posted an increasing number of these incidents in the past four months...definitely increasing...
Five Russian military killed in Donbas yesterday, 15 wounded, - Intelligence http://24today.net/open/680562
Rocketeer TSBs from Primorye were trained on the latest PTRC "Iskander" http://www.vpk-news.ru/news/31357?ut...medium=twitter …
Russian tanks being transported to Donbas via "Uspenka" Border Crossing Post - Tymchuk
https://twitter.com/UKRINFORM/status/750956987136012288 …
Merkel: Russia’s Actions Erode Mutual Trust With West
http://www.rferl.mobi/a/merkel-russi.../27843256.html …
Bloodthirsty Swedes stoking tensions, fear of peaceful Russia who has invaded only like 2 countries in past 8 years.
MFA Russia
✔ @mfa_russia #Zakharova: We were surprised to hear that the Swedish Armed Forces commander-in-chief sees Russia as the biggest military threat to Sweden
MFA Russia
✔ @mfa_russia #Zakharova: It is regrettable that anti-Russian statements are routinely made by the Swedish military, who see the Russian threat everywhere
BUT WAIT.....Russian military has only conducted two practice tactical nuclear strikes on Stockholm and a military invasion on Gotland...in the last tow years and parked a spy sub near Stockholm......
Standing in Crimea, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman asks for concrete example of why NATO states worry Russia poses threat...
Ukraine suffered 2 KIA, 6 WIA in the last 24 hoursQuote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
EU Mythbusters
✔ @EUvsDisinfo Pro-Kremlin mathematics: it doesn't have to add up, as long as it looks BIG.
http://eepurl.com/b8DZc9
The more Russian strategists consider severing the Baltics from Poland, the more Sweden or Finland's accession to NATO makes sense as a way to facilitate access to the Baltics. This could also be accomplished by way of agreements with Sweden and Finland short of NATO membership i.e. transit rights.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Ultimately, NATO can smash through any block that Russia attempts and can defeat Russia in detail on Kaliningrad and Belorussian soil without resorting to nuclear weapons.
What is interesting is that as Russia is more aggressive towards both Sweden and Finland the more their own citizens want to join NATO....something unheard of in the Cold War days as both remain totally neutral....Quote:
Originally Posted by Azor
BREAKING #NATO official: Polt. leaders have delegated authority to commanders below SACEUR to use #missiledefense against incoming threats
NATO official: NATO was cooperating with #Russia on #missiledefense. It was Russia that ended this unilaterally #NATOSummit
Belarus FM about additional #NATO troops in #Europe: We understand the logic, but do not welcome these steps https://www.facebook.com/BelarusInEn...20062941528111 …
EU Mythbusters
✔ @EUvsDisinfo READ: UK Parliament report on security implications of proKremlin disinformation
http://www.publications.parliament.u...ce/107/107.pdf …
"Russia's disinformation campaigns have become a homeland security issue inside the EU. Pro-Kremlin...
http://fb.me/3YNKYdgSq
MFA Russia
✔ @mfa_russia #Zakharova: We invite to Crimea mass media, representatives of international organizations, politicians!
Russian MFA Spox in Yalta: Crimea doesn't need second referendum
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/7-july-...nt-need-second …
pic.twitter.com/SAMfYlwbcN
Such visits to occupied Crimea-illegal, illegitimate, blatantly violate international law&UA norms https://twitter.com/natvasilyevaap/s...80574517559296 …
"Russia concerned by Ukraine deploying Ukrainian troops inside Ukraine."
https://twitter.com/tassagency_en/st...28104466608128 …
Russian pretext/excuse for sending more Russian Ground Forces tanks, IFVs, supplies x-border into occupied Donbas? https://twitter.com/natomission_ru/s...66252932308992 …
Russia threatens to sue #EBRD for stopped work in Russia in 2014 as part of Western sanctions. Hardly possible. http://www.rbc.ru/economics/07/07/20...4f79?from=main …
Putin continues his major purge of law enforcement organs, now lower down in MVD & SK (in Russian).
http://www.rbc.ru/politics/07/07/201...9144?from=main …
U.S. Mission to OSCE
✔ @usosce Once again, #Russia blocks observation of its border with #Ukraine beyond a few hundred meters.
http://bit.ly/29qDD40 @DanBBaer