Four jihadists, one prison: all released by Assad and all now dead
I missed this article in May 2016, so yes it is historical. Just why the four were in Syrian custody in 2011, as the civil war began, is not 100% clear (possibly two were rendered there by the USA). What is clear is their release had an impact:
Quote:
If President Assad’s Sednaya amnesty was indeed a considered plan to subvert the revolution, it worked.
Link:http://s.telegraph.co.uk/graphics/pr...mic/index.html
The Aviationist on the US-UK-France Airstrikes
The Russian military’s ‘permanent’ commitment in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean
A scholarly overview of Russia's place in Syria and nearby - presumably written before the latest allied air attack, as it is not mentioned.
Link:https://defenceindepth.co/2018/04/20...mediterranean/
The Syria Attack: Motives and Consequences
Professor Paul Rogers overview after the three allies action:
Quote:
The 14 April missile strike by the United States, France and the UK on three Syrian chemical weapons facilities aimed to enforce a much-scuffed red line on use of chemical weapons. But it was achieved in breach of international law and accompanied by a coordinated political message that the Western allies had no wider intention to oppose the Assad regime or its Russian and Iranian allies in Syria. As such, Trump is already advocating new actors like Egypt take the place of US troops in northeast Syria. While little has changed for Assad, Russia, or Iran in Syria, Israel and Turkey are increasingly dissatisfied with the West’s lack of apparent post-Islamic State strategy there and will act accordingly,
Interesting comments on the French strike:
Quote:
. In logistic terms the French component was far more complex and wide-ranging, even though it only involved eleven cruise missiles.
Link:http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.u...d_consequences
Turkey has built a border wall / fence
Border defences, whether in an insurgency - Algeria and Rhodesia come to mind - or to control border crossing are often controversial:
Quote:
In related news,
Turkey has completed construction of a 764-km (475 mile) concrete wall along its border with Syria. Ankara launched the construction project in 2015 for a barrier along 826 of the 911 kms of the border. The modular walls consisted of seven-ton mobile blocks, two meters wide and three meters high, topped with a one-meter height of razor wire. A furhter electronic layer has close-up surveillance systems, thermal cameras, land surveillance radar, remote-controlled weapons systems, command-and-control centers, line-length imaging systems and seismic and acoustic sensors. There is also laser destructive fiber-optic detection, surveillance radar for drone detection, jammers, and sensor-triggered short distance lighting systems.
Link:http://eaworldview.com/2018/06/syria...investigation/
We're nearly back on all the Golan Heights
From an Israeli think tank:
Quote:
The Syrian army is completing its takeover of the Syrian Golan Heights while establishing its presence along the border with Israel. The only remaining area of resistance is the ISIS-controlled Yarmouk Basin, which is under attack by the Syrian army, including artillery shelling and airstrikes.....Most of the areas under the control of the rebel organizations fell into the hands of the Syrian army and the forces supporting it, without significant fighting but rather through surrender agreements (so-called reconciliation agreements) involving the Russians. The most prominent area where a surrender agreement was reached was the area of Quneitra. The agreement that was reached included a ceasefire, the return of the Syrian army to all the positions that had been under its control before the civil war, and the evacuation of rebel operatives who did not want to join the agreement to the Idlib region in northern Syria. As a result, Syrian soldiers entered the towns and villages in the area without any fighting, including the village of Al-Rafid, near the border with Israel.
Link:https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en...ly-19-25-2018/
There is more on the link on other developments.
There is a small thread on the Golan Heights, for reference:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...shpoint-coming
The World Abetted Assad’s Victory in Syria
Thanks to a "lurker" for the pointer to this. At times a painful read this piece in 'The Atlantic' offers an explanation why Assad appears today to have won. Being ruthless was one factor and with help from those who simply ignored the critics (akin to Sri Lanka may be).
The last two passages:
Quote:
From the outside, Assad’s victory looks like no victory at all. He is king of the ashes, overlooking a distraught country from his presidential palace. He has yet to conquer vast swathes of territory and faces ongoing terrorist attacks from jihadist sleeper cells. He must rebuild a heavily indebted, struggling economy, with a shrunken population shorn of much of its technical and intellectual skill. He is reliant on two powerful foreign allies, Russia and Iran, who have infiltrated state institutions and the economy and wield huge influence. He must placate the millions of loyal Syrians who have sacrificed their blood and treasure to keep him on his throne.Yet to Assad and his inner circle, who have been playing a long game, it must seem these problems can still be surmounted, even if it takes decades. For them, the war was about survival, and in this sense they have won. Their own cynicism and ruthlessness at home combined with decisive assistance from abroad (whether intentional or not) has allowed them to remain in power. It was brutal and inhumane but, from their perspective, it worked. That is a chilling lesson for other dictators.
Link:https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...-syria/566522/
In a civil war treachery abounds
An article written after President Trump's policy statement via Twitter and the author concludes:
Quote:
Walking away now is a remarkable gift for Isis, whose leaders can say they saw off the Americans and their allies. Even without the withdrawal, the group would likely have held out for many more months as an organised entity, able to defend what it still had. With its most formidable foe leaving the fray, Isis may well be reborn.
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/19/has-isis-been-defeated-in-syria-as-trump-claims
I do wonder if any of the USA's allies and partners had thought this new policy was a possibility? Not only an exit for those US forces on the ground, the likely end for air operations.
How will the Kurdish allies respond? Sadly I expect a few of them knew this would happen one day; after all their recent history shows allies suddenly exit. Will they release the reported thousands of ISIS prisoners, even kill them?
The FT reports:
Quote:
The political wing of Kurdish-led militia groups backed by the US have held talks with the Syrian regime as part of efforts to protect their hold over a stretch of territory in the war-torn country. The negotiations underline the shifting dynamics in Syria’s seven-year civil war as President Bashar al-Assad reasserts control over much of the country. They also illustrate how the Kurdish militants in north-east Syria now view their future interests as being tied to the regime.
Link:https://www.ft.com/content/3012a3c2-...a-eeb7a9ce36e4
Syrian Policy Complexity Is America’s Necessary Lesson
An article by a lady academic / policy analyst (who is a Forum member too), which has had compliments on Twitter. So a couple of passages, near the start:
Quote:
This has brought to the fore a confusing set of aligned and contradicting responses. It is almost as difficult to keep track of the politics of the comments and commentators as it has been to figure out where and how to stand on the war itself.
She ends with:
Quote:
This analysis may feel unsatisfying, may seem to leave readers with few answers and more uncertainty regarding their correct apprehension of the current situation, and those challenges to come in the future. That is as intended. And as paradoxical as it may seem, such a state of enlightened confusion will serve the U.S. and the international community better to hedge against hubris,
partisanship, or propaganda in national security policies.
Link:https://theglobepost.com/2018/12/24/syria-us-lesson/