And on the other issues...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Brian Scott
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What folks think an invasion of Somalia would be a cakewalk ? Mostly folks who never served in the military, but are now deciding the foreign policy of the USA.
Who is saying that an invasion of Somaila would be a cakewalk, and where are they saying it? Specifically, please. A citation would help.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Brian Scott
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GaroweOnline.com that President Farole laid out a very specific plan for how to spend that money, promising specific results.
A dollar goes a lot further in Puntland than in Luzon.
It's difficult to comment on - or believe in - a plan one hasn't seen. A dollar goes a fair way on Luzon, but probably farther in Puntland. However, it's difficult to see how a meagre 8 million in aid money is going to convince people to abandon an enterprise that brings in many more millions every year, or how the Puntland government intends to compel the same people to abandon that business. They have to either convince or compel, and $8m seems unlikely to do either.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Brian Scott
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I'm new here. I don't know what you know about the US police action in sunny Southeast Asia 40-some years ago.
Not everything, but enough.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Brian Scott
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This thread is not going at all like I wanted. I am 100% certain that our Sneaky Petes on the ground in Somalia are gonna get a lot of backup from conventional ground forces, and I'm pretty sure that will happen by this Summer.
If you want the community here to discuss that prediction seriously, you might want to support it a bit more thoroughly. Why exactly do you think this is going to happen?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Brian Scott
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I was hoping this community could help them from screwing that up....
If our coming misadventure into Somalia is as badly led as the two current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and this blog community doesn't lift a finger to prevent that, well, why even blog here ?
I could lift my full complement of fingers and toes several times over and have not one iota of influence over whatever the US intends or does not intend to do in Somalia. I personally don't think there's any intention to commit ground forces to Somalia in the near future, but if it happens we'll discuss it here, and those of us here will benefit from the discussion, and the US Government at large will either be unaware of the discussion or will ignore it. I suspect that you overestimate our influence by several orders of magnitude.
I understand all that, I was referring to the Persian tradition
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dayuhan
Possible but I think perhaps overestimated.
of Taarof. The tradition is understood by few westerners and is endemic throughout the old Persian Empire territory. Iraq was a part of several Persian Empires far longer than the 400 or so years it was in the Ottoman empire.
The rules are arcane and very elaborate, the relative military, political or social ranks of the parties involved and the character of the issue at hand can make a difference.
Basically, if you tell me you want my watch, I'm supposed to immediately take it off my wrist and offer it to you. Whether you take it or not depends on the resulting conversation; you may really want it, may not and actually want something else -- or you may just want me in your debt, in which case you do not take the watch -- but we both know I owe you. there are subtle changes based on our relative positions and we would both be very aware of that. Rules for two equals as opposed to a senior / less senior relationship differ.
I'm fairly sure that Glaspie's "you two need to work this out" was taken in a Taarof spirit and thus Saddam did not expect the US response he actually got. I know he had plans to do the attack regardless and I do not suggest the Bush (or Glaspie) in any way encouraged him. I very much believe he used Taarof rules and took the Glaspie comment in a way that was not intended
All true. The Glaspie bit still has legs because the knowledge
of Taarof in the ME keeps it going there and thus worldwide by those not disposed to love America or Americans as an excuse / apologia and a way to espouse a conspiracy theory or two and blame the US for gross malfeasance (or dumb incompetence...).
I thought that was obvious but apparently not...:o
The Quiet War in the Horn of Africa
Winning Hearts and Minds in Kenya?
Entry Excerpt:
"Winning Hearts and Minds?" Understanding the Relationship between Aid and Security in Kenya - Mark Bradbury and Michael Kleinman, Feinstein International Center.
This case study on Kenya, researched and written by Mark Bradbury and Michael Kleinman, is the first in a series of publications presenting the findings of a two-year FIC comparative study on the relationship between aid and security in northeastern Kenya and in five provinces of Afghanistan. The overall study has focused in particular on trying to determine the effectiveness of aid in promoting stabilization and security objectives, including by helping to "win hearts and minds" of local populations. (For more information and links to publications related to the study see the
Aid and Security project page.)
Since the late 1990's Kenya's large and thinly populated northeastern region bordering Somalia has become a focus for US government efforts in Africa to counter terrorism, mitigate violent extremism and promote stability and governance. This paper examines the effectiveness of one aspect of those efforts, namely the aid projects implemented by US Civil Affairs teams deployed from the Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) in Garissa and Wajir districts in North Eastern province, and Lamu district in Coast province. The paper argues that these activities were useful at a tactical level in terms of facilitating the US military's entry into regions of potential concern, and in helping them to acquire local knowledge and connections. However, it also highlights some of the limitations at a strategic level of using foreign aid as a tool for countering terrorism or insurgencies and promoting stability and security. For example, the research found that these small-scale and scattered projects did little to win hearts and minds or change perceptions of the US in the communities where the projects were implemented. There was also little evidence that the projects had contributed to improved security by addressing some of the perceived underlying causes of terrorism and violent extremism in the region.
Read the entire report at the Feinstein International Center.
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