22:21 #Marinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] decent battle started, #boarding school area, heavy MG + AGL and mortars, grenade launchers
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According to the Jamestown Foundation, it is:Quote:
While continuing to exchange barbs, the West and Russia are building a more institutionalized pattern of standoff in Europe that involves increasingly predictable ###-for-tat mirrored actions. Both sides profess their actions to be purely defensive, but these are increasingly robust defenses.
...The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) forces are running a series of military exercises in the Baltic region...Russia, in turn, began massive snap exercises this week...both sides are eyeing each other’s moves attentively.
...In 2014, after the annexation of Crimea and the outburst of fighting in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas, the West’s reaction was dismay, close to panic...The worst expectations did not materialize: Russia-backed forces did not march west from Donbas to take Russian-speaking southern Ukraine up to Odesa or link up with the Russian garrison in Moldova’s breakaway territory of Transnistria. Romania and Bulgaria do not seem to be directly threatened, and Ukraine is still resisting. Western defense arrangements in Europe are being shifted to the Baltics and Poland, which look more potentially exposed.
...a standoff may be forming, like around Berlin during the Cold War, with threat balanced by counter-threat, force—with counter-force. If meticulously maintained, this standoff could be relatively stable.
Budapest Memorandum
No US presidential administration has given Ukraine a military commitment or submitted the agreement to ratification by the Senate. No parties are obligated to do anything other than consult with one another, unless of course nuclear weapons are used against Ukraine or threatened to be used. Were that the case, any US/UK/French-initiated UNSC resolution would be vetoed by Russia. Ukraine in 2014 is not Poland in 1939, and the Budapest Memorandum is not the Anglo-French-Polish agreements… Russia never would have made an agreement that allowed unilateral or multilateral British, American or French intervention in Ukraine absent a UNSC resolution. Ukraine had possession of Soviet nuclear weapons, but not operational control over them, and Russia stated that any Ukrainian attempt to hot-wire or hack the warheads would be considered an act of war. Basically, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus made the best deal they could at the time, when Russia was at its most generous. The United States was very concerned about the loss of control of Soviet nuclear weapons and material at the time, and would have supported Russia’s efforts to take control of Soviet warheads, even if that meant a joint Russo-American military operation.
Invasion vs. Incursion
In 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia (outside of South Ossetia), here was the US reaction:
- Bush: “…an invasion…unacceptable…a dangerous escalation…”
- Rice: “…cease attacks on Georgia…respect Georgia’s territorial integrity, and withdraw…”
- Cheney: “…Russian aggression…”
In 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea (outside of its basing area), here was the US reaction:
- Obama: “…violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity would be deeply destabilizing…clear violation of Russia’s commitment…and international laws.”
- Kerry: “…incredible act of aggression...invading another country…”
One can look at the events in Ukraine from March 2014 to present and call it a Russo-Ukrainian War; certainly the casualty count is much higher than the other wars in Moldova (Transnistria) and Georgia (2008). Indeed, Poroshenko has referred to it as a Ukrainian "Patriotic War". If Crimea and Donbas are two theaters or phases of that war, and Crimea began earlier, than Washington's initial use of the term "invasion" would cover Donbas as well.
If Donbas is looked at as a separate conflict, then there are complicating factors to calling it an invasion:
- There are millions of dual Russian-Ukrainian citizens, and over one million Ukrainian “refugees” in Russia. Moreover, most Ukrainians speak Russian, and so observers were trying to go by accents...
- If dual Ukrainian-Russian citizens or Ukrainian citizens are trained and armed in Russia, re-enter Ukraine and join the separatists, it is difficult to call an invasion (then Turkey would be “invading” Syria)
- It is certain that Russian artillery and aircraft near the Ukrainian border fired into Ukraine. But that is not an invasion
- In March 2014, it was evident that Russian SF and intelligence operatives were on the ground in Donbas, but difficult to prove, given the ethnic, linguistic and nationality issues involved
- In August 2014, regular Russian forces began rotating in and out of Donbas on a contingency basis, five months after the Donbas conflict began. Again, their presence has been difficult to prove
The Donbas War is definitely an invasion, but an unconventional one, and Western leaders have been correct in avoiding a public relations quagmire that would only result in Western publics asking: well, what will you do about it, then? Washington's rhetoric concerning its preferences in Syria was above and beyond the level of commitment that the US intended to take to achieve those objectives, which Moscow aptly demonstrated. Obama has returned to being lecturer-in-chief on domestic issues only...
Russian Economic Woes
I agree that Russia is eager to hand off Donbas, and has abandoned the Novorossiya project altogether. To some degree, the front line violence can be attributed to rebel fighters wanting to keep the party going, however, Russian special forces have clearly taken out a number of troublesome unit commanders, and a number of Yanukovych’s former inner circle have mysteriously passed away as well.
I also agree that it is in Kyiv’s best interest to seal off Donbas and focus on developing the Ukrainian economy. Neither Russia nor the separatists will allow that to happen, as in ten or more years it will seem like divided Germany or the Korean Peninsula.
Azor…Budapest Memorandum 1994
Confirm the following:
1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine;
2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations;
3. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind;
4. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used;
6. Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning these commitments.
This Memorandum will become applicable upon signature.
The Presidents of Ukraine, Russian Federation and United States of America, and the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom signed three memorandums (UN Document A/49/765) on December 5, 1994, with the accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Through this agreement, these countries (later to include China and France in individual statements) gave national security assurances to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. The Joint Declaration by the Russian Federation and the United States of America of December 4, 2009 confirmed their commitment.
International law wise this agreement is a legally binding inferred security guarantee especially with the signature of a US President on it.
BTW...did you see the UNSC called into action as required in the agreement?...no why Russia is both the aggressor and the guarantor of the agreement and would have used their veto just as they have done repeatedly on Syria when it does not fit their needs. that is the problem with Minsk 2...Russian troops are inside Ukraine and they fund, train, supply and lead their mercenaries all the while claiming to not be there and at the same guarantor of Minsk 2....in the world of true international relations a nation cannot be both...but Obama and Kerry blew it and now have to live with it also in Syria.....
This is the Russian explanation of why they did not violate the Budapest Memorandum in Crimea and in the defense of "Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine"….remember the words of Stalin to key Party members in 1933….”we will sign all treaties or agreements if they benefit the Soviet Union and then ignore them if they are no further interest to us”……….
Now with that in mind check the first series of comments when he indicates .in German ….”no other country can guarantee the territorial integrity of another nation state ..that is legal craziness…”
Now do you see Stalin hard at work…….has always been the guiding principle in Russian International Relations since 1933…ie for example claiming to the world they are in a 48 hour ceasefire in Aleppo and then bombing the hell out of Aleppo all arguing ….”it was them not us”…..
This sentence is telling in that they fully understand that their signature was in fact a security guarantee as he is attempting to negate it thus making Russia a non violator.
Sorry but this is in German..but sometimes German is far more accurate in reflecting the tone and exactness of Russian…..
STIMME RUSSLANDS Bei der Aufnahme der Krim hat Russland laut Premier Dmitri Medwedjew gegen nicht gegen internationale Verpflichtungen - genauer das Budapester Memorandum - verstoßen.
„Diese Vorwürfe sind haltlos. Die Russische Föderation kommt ihren Verpflichtungen nach. Kein einziger Staat der Welt kann aber die territoriale Integrität eines anderen Staates garantieren – das ist juristischer Unsinn“, sagte Medwedjew am Samstag in einem Interview für den staatlichen russischen Fernsehsender Rossija. Diejenigen, die darüber sprechen, sollten das Budapester Memorandum aufmerksamer lesen.
Die 1994 von Russland im „Budapester Memorandum“ übernommenen Garantien galten für die „Situation einer Gefährdung der Souveränität der Ukraine, sollte diese von jemandem bedroht werden“.
„Alles, was mit der Krim geschah, ist eine völlig andere Geschichte“, betonte Medwedjew. „Es war das Volk selber, das sich als einen selbständigen Teil der Ukraine identifizierte und die Initiative hervorbrachte, ein Referendum abzuhalten.“ Bei der Volksabstimmung stimmte es für den Austritt aus der Ukraine. Es komme in der Welt vor, dass sich Staaten spalten, fügte er hinzu.
„Nur ein Staat selbst, sein Volk und seine Behörden“ können seine territoriale Integrität garantieren, betonte Medwedjew.
BTW...this sentence is telling for Russian actions then and currently....
RIA Novosti / STIMME RUSSLANDS
Weiterlesen: http://de.sputniknews.com/german.ruv...morandum-5952/
Reference Obama and the use of the word “incursion”…go back to all and I mean all of his comments, press statements and interviews since Crimea and you will find not a single mention of the word “invasion” by him because when that word is used by a US President in infers that he must take some form of action and there are at three treaties and international agreements that he could have used starting with the Helsinki Act which clearly states all nations have the right to travel the route they want to take regardless of what block they were in......BTW Russia is often fast to point back to Helsinki.....when need be.
Remember is famous press statement in 2014…..”we will judge Putin on his actions not his words”
Well yesterday the RuAF used cluster munitions on the New Syrian Army a fully identified proxy and US backed in southern Syria on the Syrian Iraq border whose intent was the cutting off of IS movements between the two countries AND they have never attacked Assad in any form……US DoD via the so called Russian US emergency hotline informed the Russians of their mistake and asked them to stop bombing the NSA and as good measure the RuAF struck them again BECAUSE as many including myself have said often and over and over IS is supported by both Assad and Putin and are part and parcel of their Syrian project to make the Syrain people choose between IS and Assad…..
AND what was the US response…..crickets…..
In a speech yesterday in German the German FM accused NATO of "warmongering" in the holding of exercises in the Baltics and Poland....an area Russia has definitely threatened in the last two years.....
'Kriegstreiberei' der @NATO?!
#Steinmeier stellt sich auf die Seite Russlands
Ein fatales Signal
Untragbar der Mann.
BUT remember this German FM has stated often that Ukraine has to negotiate with the Russian mercenaries and to hold elections in the Russian occupied eastern Ukraine and still has repeatedly failed to push equally Russia to leave eastern Ukraine.
AND he is still saying in the face of a massive Russian bombing campaign that the CoH is "largely holding"....there is talk within the German political party CDU from Merkel that Steinmeir is often on another planet and she has to correct his mistakes......
Those that have studied German history......should heed this statement as it reflects the thinking of many Eastern European leaders and politicians especially the Polish......
Steinmeier is reincarnation of von Papen. Unbelievable to have such a dangerous person in a position of influence.
That an appeaser like Steinmeier can become foreign minister in a county with Germany's history is a mystery to me. https://twitter.com/andersostlund/st...13173649842176 …
BUT WAIT....even the German FM must know this.........
Kremlin considers NATO's build-up hundreds of kilometers from Russian borders to be a violation of something ..... in their eyes anything is lately a violation that NATO says and or does.....so nothing new there..... and WHY the German FM stated the above is a surprise to many Europeans...
It is almost like the German FM wants to give as the SG of NATO stated....a deep military sphere of influence all along the Russian border......
BUT WAIT...notice the Russian use of the same word....."warmongering".......
Russian communists KPRF staged march in Moscow against warmongering policy of NATO
http://russia.liveuamap.com/en/2016/...moscow-against …
The German SPD has had a long history of trying to distance itself from Communists and the Left Wing political spectrum....in German and especially in Russia....
Russian diplomat detained in Kharkiv on bribe suspicion (video)
http://uatoday.tv/crime/russian-dipl...eo-675146.html …
Ukraine Only One Aspect of a Crisis Affecting Entire Post-Soviet Space, Portnikov Says
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com...of-crisis.html …
Russia calls up reservists in massive snap drill which includes all military districts. Total numbers unknown
PUTIN CALLS URGENT RUSSIAN SECURITY COUNCIL MEETING ON "THREATS TO KALININGRAD", RIA SAYS
pic.twitter.com/okfpM6vEM4 (via @akihheikkinen )
OSCE attempts to get Russian mercenaries to move out of their illegally taken positions....in full violation of Minsk 2....
OSCE: This position was established after armed “LPR” members had crossed the contact line.
#Stanytsia_Luhanska
OSCE: “LPR” members continue to maintain an armed pos. north of Siverskyi Donets river, beyond the contact line at Stanytsia Luhanska bridge
OSCE UAV's global position system was jammed again while flying near “DPR”-controlled #Horlivka yesterday.
Azor........
Russia has repeatedly war-gamed tactical nuclear attacks on eastern Europe Nato members
https://twitter.com/matisaksk/status/744093220460724224 …
Russia is really partying tonight....... has been ongoing for awhile.......
Also incoming fire in #Sakhanka, #Kominternove, #Lebedinske. Ukrainian army is firing back.
Strangely, quiet also in Krasnohorivka. Ruscists are busy elsewhere tonight.
23:04 #Mariupol - the canonade has resumed. Somewhere in the direction of #Talakivka-#Shyrokyne.
22:47 #Mariupol area @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] Being near #Pionerske, one can clearly hear mortars&heavy MGs fr/the dir'n of #Lebedynske&#Sakhanka
22:25 Battle ongoing at #Avdiivka's Promka.
Ukr forces at #Vodyane (Mariupol) are still under heavy fire. RU forces use 120-mm mortars, 122-mm and 152-mm artillery. One Ukr soldier KIA
In #Mariupol they still can hear the battle towards east from the city.
22:35
Pro Russians shelling Ukrainian positions with tank near #Pavlopol.
Also incoming in #Talakivka and #Hnutove. #Mariupol can hear it.
21:30 #Mariupol area @GirkinGirkin CP at #Kominternove - #Vodyane - #Lebedynske: 1.5hr ongoing skirmish w/use of machine guns and GLs
One hour ago...
In Talakivka wounded 1 Ukrainian serviceman (Mariupol direction)
Fighting goes on...
https://m.facebook.com/zoryan.zoryan...11040362290243 …
22:15 #Makiivka @rjpthjuljytwr [ok.ru] #Gvardeyka, #Butovka: listening to #Avdiivka direction, #Yasynuvata CP, periodically
22:06 #Yasynuvata @GirkinGirkin #Promka: battle, more than likely tanks are shelling
22:00 #Yasynuvata @GirkinGirkin Artillery started to work
21:40 #Yasynuvata #Lager[? =http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=48.143869&lon=37.858543&z=14&m=b&show =/3493120 …] @GirkinGirkin and again whistle and cracks of bullets
21:31 #Mariupol @zanzy1975 UA positions near #Mariupol are under RU constant RU fire for 2hrs so far, series of rumbles, "large weapon"
Germany For Minister blamed Nato's "warmongering and
stomping boots" for #Russia tension
"http://www.thelocal.de/20160618/germany-slams-nato-warmongering-on-russia …
BUT WAIT...maybe he needs to spend the night tonight on the UAF front lines....and experience Russian FP ........up close and personal......
Heavy shelling of Ukrainian positions east of #Mariupol with 120mm mortars and 152mm artillery right now. Reports of one KIA in #Vodyane.
23:13 #Kadiivka @DNSRRSTRTS There have been 3-4 booms and quiet
23:21 #Kadiivka @DNSRRSTRTS Seemingly, a cannon is working somewhere, already 6 salvos since 23:19
Obviously I confirm the above from the agreement.
Looking at clause 4, it appears that a UNSC resolution would only be invoked if aggression against Ukraine involved the use or threat of nuclear weapons. There is no separate clause demanding UNSC action if Ukraine is subject to non-nuclear aggression. Clause 6 only obligates the parties to consult in the event of a "question" arising.
There are rumors of Russian nuclear threats against various NATO members (Poland, Romania, Denmark, United States), but the invasion of Ukraine by Russia has been entirely non-nuclear. While Russia has clearly violated the agreement, and publicly been censured, there is no mechanism in the agreement for forcing a Russian withdrawal.
We've established that at best, consultation is demanded. Moreover, the agreement is not a treaty and was never ratified by Congress.
Well, again, it appears that UNSC action would require a nuclear dimension to the aggression. But yes, we know Russia would use its veto power, which was obvious in 1994 as well.
How did Obama and Kerry "blow it" in Ukraine? By not deploying US forces to fight with the UAF? By not arming the UAF? By not pursuing the dead end of a UNGA or UNSC resolution?
I've read that the Kremlin believes that foreign powers, specifically the US, violated the Budapest Memorandum in 2013-2014 by staging a coup against the Yanukovych/Party of Regions government. Therefore, the Russian invasion is technically a response to a violation, even though Russia had been interfering in Ukraine, including using economic coercion, for years.
More casualties among Ukraine troops as militants continue fierce shelling
http://www.unian.info/war/1380211-mo...-shelling.html …
Rus-militant troops mortared Novozvanivka, Troyitske. 1 Ukr serviceman was KIA, 2 WIA - Luhansk regional admin
http://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-regio...-poraneni.html …
"militant" = Russian Armed Forces militia with Russian Ground Forces staff officers & NCOs in command. https://twitter.com/uatodaytv/status/744448935859752960 …
Russian Armed Forces TV taking an interest in #Mariupol
https://twitter.com/zvezdanews/statu...55968583454720 …
Night at positions near Donetsk
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/19-june...s-near-donetsk …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpB7SsLqxFg …
Shocking! In his essay on Germany's new global role, #ger Foreign Minister #Steinmeier does *not* mention NATO once! https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...cid=soc-tw-rdr …
Russians are "partying" again and early today.....
12:30 downtown #Horlivka @gipsogolovij Several "metallic" salvos w/1-min interval came from NW Horlivka
Putin starts issuing demands again against Ukraine.....
Putin said that Kyiv had to grant the special status to the occupied territories of #Ukraine “as soon as possible.”
http://www.kyivpost.com/article/cont...um-416652.html …
More casualties among #Ukraine troops as militants continue fierce shellings
http://uatoday.tv/politics/more-casu...ng-675446.html …
Three Ukr servicemen were killed in action over the last day, one was WIA - ATO spox
http://espreso.tv/news/2016/06/19/za...ovosluzhbovciv …
GSW, shrapnel, loss of blood -- it's all in a day's work for medical volunteers in Avdiyivka
http://www.rferl.org/media/video/ukr.../27802231.html …
Russian tank near Yubileyne, Luhansk region
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/19-june...luhansk-region …
pic.twitter.com/G0ECttdRvw