The Internet attacks on Estonia
make Swedes worry ...
Quote:
Foreword
In spring 2007 Estonia was subjected to an Internet blockade
lasting several weeks. During this time the net did
not work normally. It became hard to reach authorities
and the mass media via the Internet, for a brief period
Internet banks had to interrupt their business, and for
several extended periods it was hard to communicate
with the rest of the world via the Internet.
How would Sweden cope with a similar situation?
http://www.krisberedskapsmyndigheten...ser_2008-2.pdf
Large scale nonviolent resistance mobilisation exercise
This exercise started yesterday in Estonia.
Quote:
Singing Revolution
The Singing Revolution is a commonly used name for events between 1987 and 1991 that led to the restoration of the independence of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.[
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singing_Revolution
Estonian song and dance celebration 2014. Almost 100 000 participants.
http://2014.laulupidu.ee/en/
Russia 'abducts' Estonian officer after Obama says US will defend Estonia
I thought this was interesting enough to start a new thread. The base question is broader then the thread title, I think. Basically, will Russia expand its aggressive behavior to NATO members?
http://www.vox.com/2014/9/5/6110037/...icer-kidnapped
Quote:
On Friday morning, less than 48 hours after President Obama delivered a speech in Estonia warning that Russian aggression against Estonia could trigger war with the US and NATO, Russian security forces have seized an officer with Estonia's state security bureau at gunpoint and taken him into Russia.
Estonia says the officer was kidnapped (or "abducted") on Estonian soil and taken across by force. Moscow says the Estonian officer was on Russian soil and detained with a gun, 5,000 euros and "materials that have the character of an intelligence mission." Nearby Estonian police radios were reportedly jammed during the incident.
Sometimes lonely nation and hybrid warfare
Amongst all the nations wondering what their future is as Russia asserts itself Estonia has a special perspective and fear that NATO will not protect it one day.
This short paper (8 pgs) by an Estonian author 'Nothing New in Hybrid Warfare: The Estonian Experience and Recommendations for NATO' offers:
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This brief describes current and historic thinking about hybrid warfare, arguing that hybrid tactics are not as new as it often may seem. Based on Estonia’s example, this brief outlines some counter-action activities that can be initiated at the national level. Finally, it suggests action NATO could take against the hybrid threat during the time between the summits in Wales and Warsaw in 2014 and 2016
Link:http://www.gmfus.org/wp-content/blog...onia_Feb15.pdf
Nonviolent Civilian Defense to Counter Russian Hybrid Warfare
Quote:
In January 2015, the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense published a manual for the Lithuanian people to use in case of a foreign invasion. It notes that “citizens can resist aggression against their country not only through armed [struggle]. Civilian-based defense or nonviolent civil resistance is another way for citizens’ resistance against aggression. (…) This method is especially important for threats of hybrid war.” The Lithuania manual statement captures the essence of this study: recognition of the threat to European countries of unconventional warfare launched by Russia, understanding of the limitations inherent in armed response, and acknowledgement of the potential of nonviolent resistance in countering aggressive hybrid war.
Link:http://advanced.jhu.edu/academics/gr...ej-bartkowski/
Latvia: what the Russians left behind
Much has happened to the three states since the last post here; a number of posts are on the Ukraine threads as all three view Russia as a 'clear and present danger'. There's also a current thread on one's states assessment of hybrid warfare and that will be merge dhere now.
This is a short commentary on one, Latvia although Lithuania and Estonia get a mention:http://strifeblog.org/2015/03/17/lat...s-left-behind/
Lithuania has learned five important lessons from Ukraine conflict
Civil resistance as a national defence strategy
More of an update on the theme of non-violence and the Open Democracy article's title is 'Countering hybrid war: civil resistance as a national defence strategy':https://www.opendemocracy.net/civilr...efence-strateg
The first paragraph:
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Since the annexation of Crimea and the start of conflict in eastern Ukraine, the Russian form of hybrid war that spearheaded these events has raised significant concerns among
eastern European states about an effective response to non-traditional warfare. Russia’s hybrid war – a term meaning a mixture of conventional and irregular warfare – has presented a vexing problem to conventional armed defense. It also demonstrates the need to determine whether a national strategy of nonviolent civilian defence can be a viable option for the current and potential victims of hybrid war to fight back non-militarily.
Puzzled by this reported opinion polling in Poland:
Quote:
A recent opinion poll in Poland, however, showed a far more nuanced gamut of responses. Last month, the survey
asked Poles what they would do if their state faced armed invasion by another country. Tellingly, 37 percent of respondents – the equivalent of almost 12 million Polish adults if applied to the nation’s population – said they would resist foreign aggression “not by fighting with arms, but by engaging in other, non-military activities.” Only 27 percent declared it would take up arms. The remaining would emigrate, were undecided or would surrender.
After the US Army, the Bundeswehr is next
Well this is a surprise:
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Estonian online daily, Postimees Online, has reported Germany will send rotating infantry troops to Estonia in 2016....Speaking to Postimees Online, the head of Germany’s defence committee, Hans-Peter Bartels, said: “Basically, a rotating company will be sent to three Eastern European countries for a few months, maybe for three months, to take part in exercises.”
Link:http://www.baltictimes.com/germany_w...aly5YU.twitter
Now if others followed this example that should alter Putin's calculus IMHO. IIRC of NATO's twenty-eight members only one has no military, Iceland. So twenty-seven companies divided by three Baltic states, nine companies on rotation would easily manage short tours.
Baltic Sea Security Report
A short report by Edward Lucas, usually a writer for The Economist, but published by a previously unheard of US think tank that focusses on teh Baltic States: http://t.co/5ylOnZf7wX
The Summary:
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urope’s new front-line states are the Nordic five (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden), the Baltic three (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania), plus Poland. These countries (the NBP9) share a common concern about a revisionist and rapidly rearming Russia. On paper they are rich enough to defend themselves: their combined gross domestic product (GDP) is $2.3 trillion, roughly a third more than Russia’s $1.7 trillion. But the NBP9 are divided—into NATO and non-NATO, EU and non-EU, big and small, rich and poor, heavy spenders on defense and free riders. These countries’ strategic incoherence, their resulting inability to defend themselves without outside help, and the threat this creates to NATO’s credibility in the region make the NBP9’s security an issue of global importance. Only the United States can spur the NBP9 to start the close security and defense cooperation needed to counter the Russian threat.
This report was presented by the author as a draft in May 2015, during the CEPA Strategic Assessment Group meeting at Helenow Palace, Poland. The Strategic Assessment Group is an ongoing effort at CEPA, which brings together prominent U.S. and Central European strategists and defense planners. The goal of the group is to assess the changing strategic enviornment for frontline NATO member states as a result of the war in Ukraine. The recommendations reflect the inputs from members of the Group.