Much in your response to agree with, Marc. There are
some minor quibble points but only a couple I'd state for your consideration:
Quote:
Originally Posted by
marct
Hi Curmudgeon,
. . .
Hmmph! I hadn't realized that the Catholic doctrine of Salvation through Good Works was so prominent in US culture :cool:. Well, we should probably add in another naive assumption to go with the rest: the idea that democracies have open trade policies.
Really? Been around for a long time -- generally coupled with self interest, to be sure but there are a good many US graves in places where we had no overwhelming interest...
Quote:
Totally agree with this as well. For 3 and 4 I would also add in that specific UN approval is also a pre-requisite unless there is a clear and present danger.
Marc
While I generally agree with that, I'd also suggest that mild dislike and distrust of the US -- some merited, some not, most understandable -- make that a very arguable and situation dependent restriction.
I'll also note that my prediction on Iraq going in was a 60:40 chance of reasonable success. Over the last 18 months, I've upped that to a 75:25 probability -- though, of course, our definitions of what is therein constituted may differ... ;)
Depends on what one considers an acceptable
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SteveMetz
Interesting. I'm sitting here at this minute writing up the events of the past six months I remain pessimistic. We gave them a window of opportunity but the best I can see, the various sides used it to train and re-arm and have decided to just wait until we're out of the way. Lamentably, I think the Vietnam analogy still holds--there will be a "decent interval" and then it will fall apart.
outcome, I think. There was always going to be a Sunni-Shia trauma, the degree remains to be seen -- as does the timing and the end result. In my view the majority of what I believe (but obviously do not know) were the real as opposed to stated strategic aims have been accomplished, the few remaining are of no major consequence though they would be nice.
My belief is that it may "fall apart" however that is somewhat unlikely and the probability is that we'll be there in relative peace for quite some time. I do think that fall, if it occurred, would be quite different than the Viet Nam analogy.
There was never going to be a US friendly Republic and I'm not at all sure anyone of any consequence ever really believed that would happen, just that some though it was worth a try. The entire operation was always a calculated risk and if it succeeded the world would be better off -- and the international oil supply would not be significantly disrupted at any point -- and if it did not succeed, only the US would suffer much harm. Not total altruism but not totally devoid of it either.
Politics in the ME are always factional and fractured, and the various sides in every nation there are always jockeying for power and firearms are frequently involved. Been that way for a long time -- I'm still touting 2018 for the approximate rule of law and 2033 for a functional nation IAW world (not western) norms... :cool:
While it failed as a "shock and awe" (really dumb phrase and idea) event it did catch AQ off balance and though they are flexible and recovered to a degree, it has dispelled the belief that the US would cut and run -- that means little to most westerners; it means a great deal in the ME. What will cause a falling apart sooner rather than later and of great instead of small magnitude is to leave precipitously. Obviously had the intel and the planning (and our doctrine and training 1980-2000) been better, it would have had a greater future deterrent effect but the effect actually achieved hasn't been that bad.
I think the adverse situations can be avoided unless we leave too soon, not least because, appropos of Viet Nam, it would again show that the US is not to be trusted as an ally, a factor that arguably contributed to our inability to build a better coalition to go to Iraq this time (Desert Storm is not a valid comparison). Hard to build coalitions when you're suspect. That and a really poor job of making and stating the case on the part of the Administration...
We'll see how it goes; I think the glass is more than half full... ;)