Hmmm...time for more coffee
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Originally Posted by
Ken White
Interesting you mention Germany and Japan. More interesting may be their pay back -- when it occurs.
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Originally Posted by
Ken White
A few score for Germany, whatever it takes for the far more patient Japan to include "hundreds." Both with the caveat that time will cure some of that as the world modifies and anger fades, thus the desire and thus the capability will diminish over time but either would take advantage of any opportunity or weakness to achieve to offset their known population decline which will adversely affect their ability for payback which a good many in both nations think is deserved.
The capabilities of the human animal are constant irrespective of place of origin however culture, as I have argued elsewhere, is very tough to change. You pose some sharp questions Ken which are interesting to think about. Having spent over a decade in Europe, and being a firm believer in the positive effects of the US melting pot, I will say up front that IMHO this scenario is very, very unlikely at this point in history.
For the sake of thinking about it however, and with respect to Germany in particular, I would in turn ask you a Slapout & JMM based question: does Motive, Means, and Opportunity exist for this to occur?
With respect to an important aspect of motive, will, this mornings english news was interesting and is starting to pick up on a theme that has been running in the german news for a few weeks now. From the BBC: Germans question Afghan war
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German military involvement abroad is extremely unpopular back home - and becoming more disliked all the time.
According to the most recent polls, almost 70% of Germans now want their troops to pull out of Afghanistan.
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But why are Germans so reluctant to send their troops into foreign combat?
"You have to go back a bit in German history, to the obvious place: the Second World War," said Mr Posener.
"We didn't only lose the war, in no uncertain terms. We were told it was our fault, and we were paying."
After half a century being told by the international community to be a non-threatening pacifist nation, Germany is now under pressure to become an effective military partner.
"Germans have had a hard time adjusting to all these mind-set changes that they are supposed to go through," said Mr Posener.
"Now we're supposed to flick a switch and suddenly be proud of our military heroes again."
Trade-wise what could be lost? US trade with Germany is reported as 3.7 billion USD per month by Wolfram Alpha.
If we assume, inaccurately, that expenditures alone determine the quality and capability of a fighting force Germany's military expenditures are reported as 41.8 billion USD per year while US military expenditures are reported as 503.4 billion USD per year. The potential military age population counts are 30.96 million vs 118.6 million (Germany:US) data again by Wolfram Alpha.
Orange Dave, I am not an Asia expert however, North Korea has been in the news of late:
From the BBC: In pictures: Burma's tunnel network
From the Sydney Morning Herald: Burma’s nuclear secrets
Sigh. I can still get more typos per pixel than most...
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Originally Posted by
Surferbeetle
...You pose some sharp questions Ken which are interesting to think about. Having spent over a decade in Europe, and being a firm believer in the positive effects of the... I will say up front that IMHO this scenario is very, very unlikely at this point in history.
Somehow, you frequently miss my conditional statements...
"... Both with the caveat that time will cure some of that as the world modifies and anger fades, thus the desire and [strike]thus[/strike] the capability will diminish over time but either would take advantage of any opportunity or weakness to achieve (payback) to offset their known population decline which will adversely affect their ability for (the) payback which a good many in both nations think is deserved." (emphasis, strikeout and 'payback' and 'the' added / kw) :o
Note also the time periods I stated; Germany is more likely to drop the idea of getting even before Japan. Ergo, given no major stumbles on our part, you may be right. You could be right with major stumbles on our part... :D
We'll see.
P.S.
Sorry for all the errors -- old fingers...:(
All is factually well in Germany and Japan today
The educated youth of both Germany and Japan are several generations deep now and all is well indeed.
Re: addressing the original post
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Originally Posted by
Dayuhan
Are you implying that Nixon's move was the sole cause of China's "start down the path of development"? I think you might find on examination that there was a good more to it than that.
Necessary but not sufficient. That put them in a position to open up; they still needed a competent leader who could understand their situation and take advantage of it, which didn't happen until Deng.
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Japan was a developed industrial power well before the US got involved...
If you go back further, the precursor to Japanese development was the 'black ships' incident - which was taken as no less than a full US invasion.
On a political - not to mention personal - level, interactions between Eastern and Western cultures often involve the Western party putting themselves in a position high on the social hierarchy, without even realizing it. I see these crossed expectations all the time in my interactions with various Asians. The Asian side thinks that the Westerners were going to be more responsible with their power, while the Westerners think the Asians really were that enthusiastic about whatever.
the guy who came in for the cold
Somewhat related to the Confucian theme, Fareed Zakaria interview with Senior Minister (and Hakka Godfather), Lee Kuan Yew.
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Let me be frank; if we did not have the good points of the West to guide us, we wouldn't have got out of our backwardness. We would have been a backward economy with a backward society. But we do not want all of the West.
Culture Is Destiny (1994) from the Lee Kuan Yew Website.
His pick for one of the West's crowning achievements: The Air-Conditioner.
TimeAsia Mini-Profile (1999)
Majulah Singapura! (and thanks for all the aircons, lah)
es irrt der mensch solang er strebt
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Originally Posted by
Dayuhan
...but to jump from there to the conclusion that direct Western interference is necessary for an Asian nation to emerge seems to me a difficult proposition to support, and potentially a recipe for trouble.
Okay, but can we still keep the air-conditioners?
N. Korea has to look to the Mainland China model
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I don't think North Korea is controllable. I do think the situation is manageable, though the management will not be entirely satisfactory. Their nuclear capacity is subject to deterrence, and their perennial shortages of food and fuel are a point of vulnerability that can be exploited. Internal political change will come, but it will be internally driven and it could take a long time (or it may not; we don't know). I don't see any external action that is likely to accelerate the process.
I worked in the Japan Section of the Asia Dept., old Manufactuers Hanover Trust Co. in NYC, while doing my night school MBA at NYU at bank expense, while doing 2 lunch seminars on both domestic and international credit every week, being aide de camp to the then President of MHTCo. to the World Bank/IMF Annual Conference in 1969 held in D.C.
This self serving b. s. is said to say that I think, as I have written here before, than mainland China, still being politically a communist governance system, is the most akin model for N. Korea to follows.
N. Korea could start by setting up a free trade zone with S. Korea on one side, and another such free trade zone on the China side, and offer to set up a third N. Korean free trade zone, if welcomed to do so, in Japan!
You need to think outside the box, and stop trying to reinvent the classical Japan and German post WW II models which can't work for N. Korea, ever, my view.