AQ Central shrinking, ISIS growing
Two analysts review AQ's future, both co-operate so there is some overlap.
First, CWOT aka Clint Watts (SWC member), in Part Four of his review:http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/201...unterterrorism
Quote:
Rather than punishing ISIS and regaining authority over the global jihad, Zawahiri and al Qaeda may soon become the second largest jihadist organization in the world. Angered by Zawahiri’s betrayal and admiring of ISIS commitment to pursue an Islamic state, what were once thought to be al Qaeda Central affiliates are openly declaring allegiance to ISIS emir Baghdadi.
There is a lot there to take in, so a comment another day.
Second, J.M. Berger of Intelwire.com, has a chart (as below) and a short explanation of how this evolved:http://news.intelwire.com/2014/03/al...es-update.html
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-slrRnfQ9TV...-fractures.png
Global Terrorism Set to Reignite
http://www.realclearworld.com/articl..._reignite.html
Some interesting comments from an Indian and Indonesian CT practitioner. While not stating it directly, their arguments give support to the emergence and spread of Al-Qaedaism.
We see plenty of signs indicating a resurgence of terrorism in SE Asia, and of course India is justifiably concerned about a surge of terrorism in India within two years of our departure from Afghanistan.
Quote:
Talking to both Ali and Doval gives a kind of stereoscopic depth of view to the re-emerging terror threat. They share key concerns: what is happening in Syria, what will soon happen in Afghanistan, the growing popularity of al-Qa'ida ideology in North Africa and the Middle East and the deep strategic planning of jihadist networks.
Quote:
"Al-Qa'ida doesn't have to seek them out. Quite the reverse. Sometimes it rejects them.
"But this acceptance by all these groups of al-Qa'ida as the ideological hub is extremely important. Al-Qa'ida doesn't have a local agenda, it only has a local geography. Its agenda is global."
Perfect Storm: The Arab Spring and the Syrian Civil War
A short commentary by Bruce Hoffman on the SITE website 'Perfect Storm: The Arab Spring and the Syrian Civil War':http://news.siteintelgroup.com/blog/...rian-civil-war
It reminds us that it is not Jihadist attacks, terrorism or actions that are the primary threat, it is the message and it is spreading (a point that has appeared elsewhere on SWC this week).
My Goodness Curmudgy........
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TheCurmudgeon
I did not realize "American" was a religion.
I go to work for awhile and you just fall off a cliff....Read it again I did not say American....You said that! I said America!!! referring to the country....based upon a conversation with a Muslim American who asked me directly "Why America doesn't get it?" Allah is everything....All must start with him not Politics according to my friend. But he is right most people don't get it which why we are in the mess we are in.
Quote:
That statement, more than anything else, demonstrates the flaw in your thinking. You confuse religious organizations and political organizations. So you will never be able to define the problem correctly.
I have no flaw in my thinking but you sure do. I am stunned you are such a Cartesian thinker that you really have know clue do you? Here let me help you. Please read "Understanding Islamic Fundamentalism" by William R. Polk
http://consortiumnews.com/2014/06/29...undamentalism/
And finally NO! I do not nor have never recommended genocide!
BTW Slap Never said that!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TheCurmudgeon
BTW, it was Slap that compared America to a religion, not me. You can't mix metaphors without revealing a little about how you think.
If you are gonna quote me get it right!!!! I never said that read it again.
Al-Qaeda’s Playbook: Persistence toward the Caliphate
A short review by Professor Bruce Hoffman:http://news.siteintelgroup.com/blog/...-the-caliphate
Starts with:
Quote:
Once again, the conventional wisdom in Washington about al-Qaeda (AQ) and the broader jihadi terrorist threat has been proven wrong. The wishful thinking passing for analysis since the beginning of the year that the split within the movement resulting in the expulsion of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from the AQ fold would simultaneously weaken both Core AQ and ISIS—now pretentiously re-named the Islamic State (IS)—has been dramatically disproven by the latter's lightning thrust into Iraq and seizure of the northern and western parts of the war-torn country.
Al Qaeda opens branch in the 'Indian Subcontinent
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...ranc-print.php
Quote:
As Sahab, al Qaeda's official media outlet, released a lengthy video promoting the creation of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent today. The video, which was published on various Internet video sites, including YouTube, features Ayman al Zawahiri as well as Asim Umar, the new emir of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and Usama Mahmoud, the group's spokesman. The video was translated by the SITE Intelligence group.
"A new branch of al-Qaeda was established and is Qaedat al-Jihad in the Indian Subcontinent, seeking to raise the flag of jihad, return the Islamic rule, and empowering the Shariah of Allah across the Indian subcontinent," Zawahiri says in the opening of the video, according to the translation by SITE.
Business should be good for this franchise since it is focused on of the most densely populated areas in the world with a wide spectrum of social and political issues, and questionable security forces.
Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh will need to cooperate at unprecedented levels to cut out this cancer before it metastasizes.
Why India is important and unfriendly to AQ
Bill,
In response and citing only one section:
Quote:
I know there are many who think AQ can't establish a presence in India, but I think that is wishful thinking. India has more people living in abject poverty than all of Africa, and much of its large Muslim population lives in poverty and has a history of being discriminated against. Islamic terrorist events happen in India periodically already, so it is probable AQ will enjoy some success, how much depends on a lot of factors.
It is interesting that AQ has to date been unable to have a presence in India, even though the jihadist cause has some adherents and can launch effective attacks (I exclude Mumbai as being an external operation).
From a global perspective it is important that the jihadist cause fails in India. Elsewhere there are posts, if not threads, debating whether AQ plus gains most where there are poor Muslims discriminated against.