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Quote:
Originally Posted by
omarali50
You're right Omar. This thing is incredible. Statements about setting condtions that weren't preconitions but end conditions or Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) to viewing the release of Baradar as an effort by Pakistan (!?) to catalyze the peace process (boy do I hate the phrase 'peace process') to Taliban & Company's continuing to kill people as having "called into question the Taliban’s commitment to creating a peace process, " made me alternately laugh out loud and crash my face into the table in frustrated incredulity.
The most telling part of the whole piece though, and the most amazing, was this "...the war in Afghanistan is going to end politically... If there is ever to be peace in Afghanistan, Afghans will need to talk to other Afghans about the future of Afghanistan." That is true but people like Mr. Grossman don't seem to realize that this kind of exchange-"Surrender now or we'll kill you! Ef off!" BANG.-is a political ending that involves talking just as surely as a nicely refined series of talks held in a 5 star hotel.
We are led by people who can't perceive the real world. This is not good.
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my comment about Akbar S. Ahmed may not have been immediately clear, so here is a little clarification I wrote to someone elsewhere:
Akbar S Ahmed is an ex-civil servant who has made a career in anthropology and academia selling his "first hand experience" of tribal mores. This book is more or less on that theme. The idea that the Jihadis are basically aggrieved tribal people, upholding their mysterious, exotic tribal code against the modern world. Which, I think, is nonsense. The traditional tribal structures have completely collapsed in the face of modern jihadism and have little or nothing to do with this phenomenon, which was imported into tribal areas by the CIA and ISI and is hardly a tribal innovation. Undeveloped administration and tribal loyalties and notions of honor are indeed part of the reason why they have thrived there, but only a part..and the ungoverned part has more to do with it than the tribal part. Akbar is basically selling the line that all would be well if the West leaves the tribals alone to carry on with their tribal ways. Which is not true. I thought that for a major publication (OK, a left-liberal one, but still) to publish such a laudatory review indicates that Westerners are eager to buy this notion and Akbar is there to sell it to them. He knows what he is doing, being well attuned to what his audience wants to hear. But after you push past the fluff, there is no substance there.
Dr Taqi has a very forgiving review here that may be helpful http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...4-3-2013_pg3_5
Irfan Husain has some background on Akbar S Ahmed http://dawn.com/news/1023105/the-unflattering-truth
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Barawe - in the past; where the SEALS were
Aidan Hartley recalls a visit to this port town in 1998 and what happened next. Barawe was the port that the SEALS visited recently.
Link:http://www.spectator.co.uk/life/wild...ll-in-somalia/
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Somalia: a building competition
A lengthy article, for once, although somewhat reliant on official press briefings:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ion?CMP=twt_gu
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State Collapse, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency: Lessons from Somalia
State Collapse, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency: Lessons from Somalia
Entry Excerpt:
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Quote:
The U.S. military carried out a missile strike in Somalia on Sunday targeting a suspected militant leader with ties to al-Qaeda and al-Shabab, a U.S. military official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The strike took place in southern Somalia, the official said, without offering further information, including the identity of the suspect or whether the strike was believed to have been successful.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/u-s-car...ader-1.2511956
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It's the charcoal stupid
A way back I posted a reference to the charcoal export trade from Somalia, via Kismayo (then just re-taken from Al-Shabaab) and the surprising difficulties encountered in shutting down a trade - which could aid Al-Shabaab.
This is an update, although few will expect much from Interpol:http://moneyjihad.wordpress.com/2014...oal-smuggling/
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Al-Shabaab’s Insurgency in Somalia: a Data-Based Snapshot
An academic analysis from Georgetown University on the evolution of the insurgency, the authors explanation:
Quote:
Here, we analyze what can be discerned about the current shape of al-Shabaab’s insurgency from data about all al-Shabaab-related attacks that have been conducted between the group’s loss of its Kismayo stronghold and the end of February 2014. We draw from a Foundation for Defense of Democracies database that attempts to chronicle every reported al-Shabaab-linked attack carried out since al-Shabaab was encircled in Kismayo and stood on the verge of losing the city; the database draws from both the English-language and also the Somali-language press.
Link:http://journal.georgetown.edu/2014/0...s-henry-appel/
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Al-Shabaab publishes alleged photograph of dead French commando
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Al-Qaeda's army in Somalia taunted Francois Hollande's government by publishing photographs of a dead white man they claimed was a French commando killed during a failed hostage rescue mission at the weekend.
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Catching up
JMA - this report is dated:Three days later Al-Shabaab announced:
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The Somali Islamist group al-Shabab says it has killed French intelligence agent Denis Allex in retaliation for a failed French operation to free him.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21056592
Denis Allex had been captured in July 2009, whilst undercover as a journalist; his colleague managed to escape - no date readily found.
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The Mogadishu you don’t read about
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While the kids play in the street, young adults walk in groups to the city centre to play soccer. They go to a place locally know as Sallax, a centre that hires out fields for various sports, including football and basketball . There are not enough football fields in the city and with everyone at work during the day, Sallax is very popular at night. Games usually last two hours. From my flat, I can often hear the youngsters chatting away past midnight on their way back home.
Link:http://voicesofafrica.co.za/the-moga...nt-read-about/
Self-explanatory.
Yes I did note the attack on the parliament building this week.
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Charred @ Kismayo: KDF lose command
Ho hum Somali complaints about the Kenyan military @ Kismayo (port city) have finally been heard:
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In an unannounced move by the African Union the AMISOM command in Kismayo has officially been transferred from the Kenyan Defense Forces to Sierra Leonean forces a few weeks ago.
Link:https://www.kenya-today.com/news/cha...leone-military
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Quote:
MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) — Al-Shabab's top leader was traveling in one of two vehicles hit Monday night in a U.S. military strike, a member of the Somali Islamic extremist group said Tuesday. The spokesman would not say whether al-Shabab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane was among the six militants killed. The two vehicles were heading toward the coastal town of Barawe, al-Shabab's main base, when they were hit, Abu Mohammed told The Associated Press.
http://news.yahoo.com/us-military-ta...075926067.html
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The Leader maybe dead and so
A commentary by Clint Watts, on FPRI, after the reported US air strike in Somalia 'Potential Implications of U.S. killing al Shabaab’s Leader In Somalia - Ahmed Godane':http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/201...a-ahmed-godane
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The rise and decline of Al-Shabaab
Christopher Anzalone, a Canadian PhD student studying Somalia and Al-Shabaab is an acknowledged SME and has a recent article in a Turkish academic journal, which is reproduced on:https://www.academia.edu/8439439/The..._2014_386-395_
The format has defeated my cut & paste skills.
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If you blinked you might have missed it
Former Special Envoy to Somalia, Ambassador Robert Oakley, passed away at age 83 earlier this month.
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A press report from Somalia, by a Somali reporter, on a previosuly unknown website; on a controversial topic in all insurgencies:
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The defection of former al-Shabaab intelligence chief Zaakariya Ismail Ahmed Hersi has sparked debate on the Somali government's amnesty offer and the benefits of pardoning al-Shabaab officials who seek to leave the group.
Link:http://sabahionline.com/en_GB/articl.../02/feature-01
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The Role of Finance in Defeating Al-Shabaab
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The Somali militant group Al-Shabaab has developed an extensive financial infrastructure. Security actors seeking to disrupt and defeat the group must tackle the financial dimension of its activities.
The Role of Finance in Defeating Al-Shabaab offers detailed analysis of Al-Shabaab’s sources of revenue and recommends ways forward for using financial instruments to target and disrupt the group. As with Islamic State, undermining the financial management of Al-Shabaab and offering those people subject to its control better governance will be at the heart of the group’s ultimate failure and defeat.
Link:https://www.rusi.org/publications/wh...54A2A05DDC85F/
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The Role of Finance in stability?
Sometimes ostensibly sensible measures simply go wrong. I am sure the banks involved fear action by the USG if money transfers lead to Al-Shabaab getting money:
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Somali families are panicking and businesses are running short of funds two weeks after the last major U.S. bank stopped transferring money to the fragile Horn of Africa country, development groups said. Somalia has no formal banking system due to decades of war, so Somalis living abroad use money transfer companies to send some $1.3 billion home each year - far more than the country receives in aid, Oxfam and Adeso said in a report on Thursday.
Link:http://news.yahoo.com/somalis-panic-...--sector.html?
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Fighter says don’t come to Somalia
Spotted by Clints Watts:
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In recent years, however, al Shabaab has turned on the foreign fighters in its own ranks, waging a brutal campaign to purge the perceived spies from its midst. An intimate account of the Shabaab civil war was provided to The Intercept in a series of interviews conducted with a current member of al Shabaab and a source who has maintained close contacts with the group.
(Citing the source) I want my voice to be heard. I don’t want others to make the same mistake I did. Especially to the youth who are in the West, I just want to tell them, don’t come to Somalia. This is advice from the bottom of my heart. You will not improve yourself, first of all, and you will not improve the Muslim Ummah in general
Link:https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2...n-fighter-cia/
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Today a senior defector
Yesterday an "insider" spoke and today the BBC has a - for them a quite long - report based on a defector:
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One of the most senior figures to defect from Somalia's al-Qaeda-linked militant group al-Shabab has urged his former colleagues to stop targeting civilians and to begin negotiations with the Somali government.
Forming an alliance with al-Qaeda "was a very big mistake. Our duty at that time was only to liberate Somalia - our interests were local." He added that it had a huge effect and diverted al-Shabab from is purpose.
"Now it turns to terror acts, organised crime... we were against all that. In late 2010/2011 there was a lot of misunderstanding within the core leadership of al-Shabab... in terms of these terrorism events.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-32791713
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It's the charcoal stupid: Al-Shabab's black gold
There are a small number of posts on the Somali charcoal trade, which reportedly assists financing Al-Shabaab and the murky part of the Kenyan Defence Force who did control Kismayo port.
Al-Jazeera has a detailed report, mainly graphs and diagrams:http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/int...75925833.html?
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Somalia: may be a failed state, it’s far from a failed society
This week I listened to Mary Harper, the BBC World Service's Africa Editor at a conference, who is a SME on Somalia and she gave a grim picture of the chances of peace. Her personal website is:http://mary-harper.blogspot.co.uk/
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If businessmen want peace in Somalia, it will happen tomorrow. For all the fighters, including ANISOM, it is a good war; the same applies to all the charities and NGO's present.
The refugee camps around Mogadishu are for the minority clans, who are seen as "lower than low" and are looked down upon by all the others.
Sadly all politics and business in Somalia is done by the gun.
Her talk was summarised as:
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Notorious for piracy of its coast and the rise of Islamist extremism, Somalia is often considered the world’s most comprehensively failed state. A threat to itself, its neighbours and the wider world. At least, that’s how the country is presented by politicians and in the media. In this insightful talk BBC World Service Africa Editor Mary Harper presents an alternative perspective, explaining that though the country may be a failed state, it’s far from a failed society. In doing so, she reveals what viewing Somalia through the prism of Al-Qaeda obscures – that alternative forms of business, justice, education and local politics have survived and even flourished.
Until the international community start to get Somalia right the consequences will be devastating, and not just for Somalia and the region but for the world.
Link:https://rising.org/programme/getting-somalia-wrong/
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Somalia stumbling along 'bumpy and difficult' path to peace and prosperity
A headline that baffles me somewhat, stumbling along for a failed state means what?
This article is clearly a post-exit, maybe laudatory piece, as it is based on a British diplomat who quietly left his job as the UN secretary general’s Special Representative to Somalia from mid-2013 until December.
Link:http://www.theguardian.com/global-de...kay-al-shabaab
Just as baffling is what did happen last week when a Kenyan base was over-run?
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al-Shabab was saying it had killed 100 Kenyan..whilst Kenyan admits four dead
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35364593
Or the stinging attack on a beach restaurant @ Mogadishu:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ures-alshabaab
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al Shabaab on the rise?
An overview by Business Insider on how al-Shabaab simply "keeps on killing", which ends with:
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Al Shabaab didn't just bomb a commercial plane. It might also have managed to smuggle an explosive device inside the most heavily guarded location in the entire country. If Shabaab was responsible for the suspected bomb attack, it would mark the first instance of the group detonating a bomb onboard a passenger plane. Like the other two attacks, it would be a gruesome sign of the group's resilience — and of its increasing danger years after the height of its territorial power.
Link:http://uk.businessinsider.com/shabaa...16-2?r=US&IR=T
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you are a brave soldier and only Allah can repay your sacrifices to humankind
A rare tribute by a Somali to a Somali soldier, actually special forces from the National Intelligence Service Agency (NISA), by a girl survivor of the Lido beach attack:
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The soldier was so kind, professional, compassionate, committed and determined to save our lives.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35500825
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Pentagon: Airstrike Kills 150 Al-Shabab Fighters in Somalia
Pentagon: Airstrike Kills 150 Al-Shabab Fighters in Somalia
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Rehab for Al-Shabaab: a report
Not read, just skimmed:
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For the first time, a journalist gets access to the Mogadishu camp where about 500 former Somali Shabab members are being held.
Link:https://www.thestar.com/news/atkinso...b-members.html
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ANISOM: Uganda gives notice of leaving
Oh dear:
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Uganda will pull its soldiers out of the African Union mission fighting Islamist group al-Shabab in Somalia, its military chief has said. Gen Katumba Wamala said the decision to withdraw Ugandan troops by December 2017 was taken because of frustration with the Somali army and military advisers from US, UK and Turkey.....Uganda joined Amisom in 2007 and has just over 6,000 troops in the 22,000-strong force.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-36606194
After ten years of being present in Somalia I am not surprised at this declaration, although the frustration with the barely functioning Somali army is understandable, blaming the others is odd. IIRC the USA pays most of the cost, historically training has not been in-country.
Of the other contributors, Ethiopia has always been a reluctant ANISOM member, Burundi has good reason to reduce its troop level - as the situation at home is fraught, Kenya has had a "bloody nose" and Djibouti is a new participant.
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Can local muscle defeat Somalia's al-Shabab?
A puzzling and rare BBC report on Somali security forces:
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Six hundred members of Jubaland state's police force have recently graduated, hundreds more will soon go through training and, for the time being, their efforts have brought security to the streets of Kismayo.The port city in Somalia's southern-most state has managed to avoid the high-profile suicide car bombings and armed assaults on hotels that the capital, Mogadishu, regularly suffers.
(Later) More than 1,000 national troops are in Kismayo, mostly unarmed and un-deployed because of politics.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-38003595
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Repressive COIN by AMISOM is not working
An African commentary on AMISOM:
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The successes or failures of insurgency and counterinsurgency operations in Somalia depend on population support. So far, the counterinsurgency strategies in Somalia conducted by AMISOM and its coalition forces, especially the Somali National Army, have been unable to gain the support of the people. Al-Shabaab’s led insurgency has gained popular support among the local-level communities, largely due to the social services and more importantly the local-level security governance it provides, in the absence of a functional state.
Link:https://sustainablesecurity.org/2016...ab-in-somalia/
As readers will be aware AMISOM can be a rather fragile coalition and that the Somali military are rarely seen or commented upon - alas this article only considers AMISOM.
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Ouch: Kenyan Army base overrun
Once again a Kenyan base has been attacked, just inside Somalia this time and Al-Shabab spokesman claims:
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Islamic militant group says it killed at least 57 soldiers in takeover of peacekeeping base in Kulbiyow, Somalia
Curiously a Somali Army officer at the base comments:
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Captain Nur Muhidin, a Somali national army officer stationed in Kulbiyow, said the troops spotted the al-Shabaab convoy before the attack and shelled it with mortars.
Muhidin described an intense firefight that continued for close to an hour before the militants secured the complex. He said the base had been manned by at least 120 Kenyan soldiers deployed with the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) and dozens had been killed in the attack. Local forces were also among the casualties.
“We are yet to confirm the number of the
Kenya and Somali soldiers lost in this attack. But I can say this was a disaster,”
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ops-in-somalia
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VOA Exclusive: Dozens More U.S. Troops Deployed to Somalia
VOA Exclusive: Dozens More U.S. Troops Deployed to Somalia
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Stirring the pot or stabilizing?
A backgrounder on the multi-national, independent involvement in Somalia, with an aside on Somaliland; notably by Turkey, Qatar and the UAE. With Ethiopia looking on as a 'concerned' neighbour.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-39654795
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Nation Building or Targeted Killings: Tough Choices for U.S. in Somalia
Nation Building or Targeted Killings: Tough Choices for U.S. in Somalia
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U.S. Escalates Somalia Fight While Pentagon Downplays Buildup
U.S. Escalates Somalia Fight While Pentagon Downplays Buildup
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The USA keeps on trying
From Politico an article on a new policy towards Somalia, summed up in this passage:
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The new operations also come as a peacekeeping mission spearheaded by the African Union is winding down. That is putting more pressure on the fledgling Somali security forces to confront al-Shabab, a terrorist army allied with Al Qaeda that plays the role of a quasi-government in significant parts of the country.
Link:https://www.politico.com/story/2017/...buildup-247668
Not easy to confirm to what level AMISOM will reduce to, a few media reports refer to contingents being reduced to a UN "cap" and so leaving some towns in the interior. A recent Newsweek article refers to:
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Firstly, AMISOM is scheduled to withdraw from Somalia by 2020. The drawdown due to begin with 1,000 troops leaving in December,
Link:http://www.newsweek.com/somalia-war-...-shabab-714622
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The "Great Game" continues: new place, new nations
A good overview of the Turkish and UAE involvement in the region, primarily in Somalia /Somaliland. I do wonder if they will fare any better than all thsoe before them.
Link:http://eaworldview.com/2017/12/turke...anging-region/
There was a BBC Radio report on a small UK team training the Somali Army (SNA), curiously it started with a stark "the Army really is not an army" line. Adding that the UK team have started building barracks for the SNA, as they had none and only afterwards will military training begin.