Taliban cracks Afghanistan's fortress: small, bad sign?
Hat tip to the Australian think tank, the Lowry Institute, for this article on an attack I'd noted and not fully appreciated - a Taliban attack in the Panjshir Valley:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...-fortress.aspx
Quote:
Panjshir is effectively Afghanistan's charter province: a place where improving security and living standards have shown that the ISAF campaign can work....
Despite the relatively low loss of life and infrastructure, this attack provides enormous strategic value to the Taliban. It demonstrates that its claim that 'NATO is no longer safe anywhere in the country' is essentially true.
...This attack takes away the one success story that ISAF and the Afghan government had, and the Taliban propaganda machine has been quick to text Western journalists to point that out.
Since the thread's title is 'Winning the War in Afghanistan' it made me wonder if the Taliban and allies (no names) strategy of reducing the confidence of it's opponents is winning.
Having read elsewhere 'Red Rat' contention is that in Helmand the Taliban have had a bad time: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...t=14285&page=4, Post No.64:
Quote:
In Helmand the evidence would tend to support the counter-proposition; the the Taleban are playing catch-up to ISAF at the tactical and operational level. They are heavily attrited, have comprehensively lost influence, lost control of ground, and their ability to prosecute successful attacks has declined markedly as well. We have now seen over 12 months of steady decline in violence in Helmand, no summer campaign season in the traditional sense and winter season which has seen ISAF move from consolidation to offence. Part of the reason that so few insurgents are being killed now is that there are far fewer of them left - attrition still plays a role in campaigning.
From my faraway armchair the campaigning in Helmand is peripheral to the high impact, public attacks approach to reducing confidence in important locations and as in Panjshir iconic places.
Here today (3 Nov); gone tomorrow (4 Nov)
But the King has no clothes, says the boy. Long live the King, say the rest.
The "happy-ending" version is the fairy tale.
Peter Fuller removed from duty as a top Afghanistan commander for remarks to POLITICO
Quote:
Major Gen. Peter Fuller, a top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, was relieved of his duties Friday after comments he made to POLITICO disparaging Afghan President Hamid Karzai and calling the government’s leaders “isolated from reality.”
Regards
Mike
Ah, Ray, the great minds ....
of postman twit and JMM99 run in the same channel (the common sewer perhaps) on this one - and independently of each other. Love it. :D
First off, the US did not make a mistake to invade Astan, co-engaging with the Northern Alliance against the AQ and their Taliban allies in an unconventional war, largely limited to advisement, airstrikes and direct actions. We missed at Tora Bora - much later rectified.
Our (US) mistake was then to engage in state-building - full stop. That COA was slated to fail politically regardless of what Constitution was written and who was selected to be the government. That Karzai seemed to be the best option at the time, simply proves the fundamental flaw in the political strategy.
Nor, do I expect "gratitude" from Karzai or his government - any more than I expect any "gratitude" from the Pstan government, despite the several billion per year the US spends on Pstan (a small cost and a cheap date compared to Astan).
They know that, in the long run, the US (as a prickly nationalistic, complex democracy) is likely to side up with the other prickly nationalistic, complex democracy in South Asia - which is India. For Astan and Pstan, they can be expected to milk the milkman as long as they can.
If MG Fuller did not see the probable outcome, he is a very naive man. Pointing out the king's nudity usually leads to an unhappy ending in real life.
Regards
Mike