I know - and it's been my point here repeatedly.
Mostly because the Army would love to take RA's advice, finish this one and put it to bed and do little or nothing to think about the next one...
We have GOT to break that 'prepare for the last war' cycle...
Well, I'm still young enough to entertain youthful illusions...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ken White
I foresee a 1.74 (that's one point seven four) degree course correction. If that much.
We aren't a Parliamentary Guvmint; the new Administration will little affect the course of the Ship of State. We operate on autopilot and that's why I could care less who gets elected -- it'll make little to no difference. :mad:
I've watched this monster from the inside for almost fifty years, off and on. Lived through the changes afterr WW II, after Korea, after Viet Nam, after Desert Storm -- and I expect little difference after OIF (which in any event I suspect will outlast the next two or three Administrations in point of troops there though I expect the combat to taper down pretty steadily).
You're a hard man, Ken.:D
Yep. Which indicates the problem...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rank amateur
. . .
B) Isn't fighting this one by definition different from preparing for the last one?
After the last one, we prepared to fight this one. That seemed to be fine -- for about a month. Then, because we had not thought it through and prepared for a war that was like the last one, we got caught with our shorts down when this one turned out to be different from that last one. :mad:
It then took us 18 month to figure out we were fighting the wrong war, another 18 months to figure out what we needed to do and then 18 more months to turn this big bureaucratic monster around -- so we are only now, four and a half years later, getting our act together. That is not good.
Fortunately, as wars go, this one is relatively low key and low violence. Had it been a big, bad one, we would have been in a world of trouble. We cannot predict what the next one will be like; we've got to be full spectrum capable and prepared for anything.
Those who think he next one (or few) will be a COIN effort may be right. They also may be wrong. Don't know about you but I've got a kid in there and I'd prefer better all round competence than a focus on just the last war...
Wasn't picking on you, BTW, you did say we should worry about this one and not the next (in so many words), I'm merely pointing out that the Army would love to do that, they certainly don't want to have to think too hard -- besides, change is such a drag... :rolleyes:
They'll try to sluff it if their feet aren't held to the fire. Whoops, that's unfair -- SOME will try that, most will work for the right thing; the problem is in a bureaucracy, inertia gets rewarded all to often... :(
What's wrong with preparing for the last war?
It's hard to disagree that we should train for the next war, not the last, but I have very little faith that we (and by that I mean TRADOC) will be able to divine just where and when we will fight the next war. Maybe I just traveled in the wrong crowd, but I don't remember anybody in 2000 suggesting it was time to start training for counterinsurgency in Iraq. In fact, do a little thought experiment.
Starting in 1900, imagine how likely it was that we would properly envision the next war, or set of wars, as we planned out the next two decades of training for the Army.
1900 - Next US War after the recent unpleasentness in the Philippines will be a major conventional war on the continent of Europe.
1920 - Next US War will be a virtual repeat of the recent major conventional war, with the Pacific thrown in for good measure. Oh, and the Army will need to become expert at amphibious operations.
1940 - OK, this one is an exception - or is it? Who would have forseen after WWII that our next war would be a limited one on the Asian continent?
1960 - 500,000 men need to be trained on semi-conventional counterinsurgent warfare.
1980 - Our next opponents will be the Sov...oh, several insignificant Latin American countries.
1990 - Coming up, we get a chance to employ all those wonderful tanks after all!
"Prepare for the next war, not the last" is one of those true but useless aphorisms. Unless our prognostication skills radically improve, preparing for the last war will be just as useful as preparing for what we imagine the next might look like.
By the way, I have "major conventional war in Europe" in the office pool.