Has the global jihad changed, should we?
The Soufan Group publish a free e-newsletter and so far they have been of interest. This week came this short comment:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...-global-jihad/
The opening two passages:
Quote:
As the tragedy in Tunis shows, the realities of the new terror spectacular of low-scale attacks with large-scale reactions—carried out by malevolent actors driven by motivation as much as affiliation—have pushed away the responsibility of effective counterterrorism from national agencies down to local police and security The age of large-scale international intervention into conflict areas has passed for the moment and the battlefield is shifting back from war zones to disaffected neighborhoods—forcing intelligence agencies to work extremely closely with local police to disrupt known wolves of terror instead of documenting their crimes after the fact
I do think the era of containment overseas maybe evolving, although without any clear direction. Just whether staying alert at home and simply being better pre-attack intervention is a moot point.
An alternative Soufan text
Bill,
I did wonder if the Soufan conclusion reflected their own expertise as a commercial provider of expertise.
Citing that one passage again:
Quote:
The age of large-scale international intervention into conflict areas has passed for the moment and the battlefield is shifting back from war zones to disaffected neighborhoods—forcing intelligence agencies to work extremely closely with local police to disrupt known wolves of terror instead of documenting their crimes after the fact.
It would have made more sense if had stated:
The age of large-scale Western international intervention into conflict areas has passed for now, unless an attack akin to 9/11 happens. Instead of a battlefield where the West dominates the emphasis will be on local and regional responses to violence. In many places violence occurs in less governed spaces e..g. the Sahel and for many societies the competition with jihadists is in their disaffected urban neighborhoods. The identification of attackers, whether 'lone wolves' or groups, will come from the joint work of intelligence agencies and local police. Retaining community support is vital - they may even help!
Why Islam doesn’t need a reformation
Medhi Hassan has a long commentary on this call, in part raised by non-Muslims, notably the atheist Ayaan Hirsi Ali (cited before):http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...luther-europe?
Here are two passages:
Quote:
Don’t get me wrong. Reforms are of course needed across the crisis-ridden Muslim-majority world: political, socio-economic and, yes, religious too. Muslims need to rediscover their own heritage of pluralism, tolerance and mutual respect – embodied in, say, the Prophet’s letter to the monks of St Catherine’s monastery....
What they don’t need are lazy calls for an Islamic reformation from non-Muslims and ex-Muslims, the repetition of which merely illustrates how shallow and simplistic, how ahistorical and even anti-historical, some of the west’s leading commentators are on this issue. It is much easier for them, it seems, to reduce the complex debate over violent extremism to a series of cliches, slogans and soundbites, rather than examining root causes or historical trends; easier still to champion the most extreme and bigoted critics of Islam while ignoring the voices of mainstream Muslim scholars, academics and activists.
Ayaan Hirsi Ali: you're wrong
A short detailed rebuttal of the arguments of Ayaan Hirsi Ali from Will McCants @ Brookings, which IMHO is devasting. Here is his opening paragraph:
Quote:
Ayaan Hirsi Ali is correct that darker passages of Islamic Scripture endorse violence and prescribe harsh punishments for moral or theological infractions. And she is right that in many Muslim countries, too many citizens still think it is a good idea to kill people for apostasy, stone them for adultery, and beat women for disobedience just because Scripture says so. But Hirsi Ali is profoundly wrong when she argues that Islamic Scripture causes Muslim terrorism and thus that the U.S. government should fund Muslim dissidents to reform Islam.
Link and not behind a paywall:https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...re-not-problem
Terror threat grows more random by the day
In part prompted by recent "lone wolf" and other terrorist attacks, this wide-ranging thought piece by Raffaello Pantucci is worth a read:https://raffaellopantucci.com/2016/0...om-by-the-day/
Radicals are exploiting a common misunderstanding of sharia.
Flow of Foreign Fighters Plummets as Islamic State Loses its Edge
Flow of Foreign Fighters Plummets as Islamic State Loses its Edge
Entry Excerpt:
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Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
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Returning Jihadists: an amnesty?
David Wells writes on CT, after government service, and advocates an amnesty:https://counterterrorismmatters.word...eme/#more-1031
Why? In part:
Quote:
Which is why now might be the time for governments to consider a more proactive approach to shaping the foreign fighter outflow – specifically through a foreign fighter ‘amnesty’ or plea bargain scheme. Its broad aim would be to repatriate those foreign fighters disillusioned with the jihadist cause and keen to return home, but prevented from doing so by fear of a long prison sentence or their inability to leave the Middle East.
(He ends with) But given the risk and resource implications of the status quo, even the removal of a small number of foreign fighters from the battlefield would be worthwhile. And with Europe and much of the West facing a
generation-long struggle against this threat, any scheme that makes countering it easier is surely worth considering.
By coincidence the free e-journal Perspectives on Terrorism has an article, from a more academic writer, and the Abstract says:
Quote:
This article considers the implications of criminalised Muslim Diaspora community members from the West travelling to the Middle East and becoming involved in the terrorist activities of the Islamic State (IS), and ultimately returning from whence they came. It also reflects on the differences over time amongst the profile of recruits that have taken place since the time of the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan, to the ascendancy of IS. Recent research indicates both terrorist and organised crime groups draw recruits from the same Diaspora communities, a position supported in this article. While the focus of law enforcement and media attention appears to be on the potential of Islamic State Middle East veterans committing terrorist acts in the West on returning from conflict zones, there may well be a pervasive danger of them bringing significant risk to their countries of origin through enhanced participation in organised crime. The views of a selection of recently retired police professionals were gathered, and were found to support concerns around this potential significant and dangerous outcome of homecoming foreign fighters.
Link:http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/.../view/541/1073
I am skeptical any government could pursue an amnesty, even if they participate in organized crime. At least outsiders are giving the issues some thought.