I don't have the numbers,
but maybe someone else has them (with sources), and that is an estimate of adherents to "ala Qutb and Salafism" among Muslims. Also MB adherents among its various branches. Then we could have some fact-based discussion - I know, I'm no fun.
This stuff can get pretty esoteric as in this SWJ publication, Jai Singh and John David Perry, Ayman Al-Zawahiri’s Citations of the Qur’an: A Descriptive Study of Selected Works (2010) (pdf pp.12-14):
Quote:
The most cited chapters were at Tawba (Surah 9, 39 citations), aal-e-Imran (Surah 3, 32 citations), an Nisa (Surah 4, 31 citations), al Maeda (Surah 5, 26 citations), al Anfal (Surah 8, 23 citations), al Baqara (Surah 2, 16 citations), al Ahzab (Surah 33, 16) and Muhammad (Surah 47, 12 citations). Taken together, these eight chapters provided a substantial portion of all chapters cited (69.1%).
....
The distribution of ayat cited within each surah was then considered (using all 428 ayat). The most cited surahs were all Medinan era with al Baqara (Surah 2, 18 citations), Aal-E-Imran (Surah 3, 58 citations), an Nisa (Surah 4, 42 citations), al Maeda (Surah 5, 43 citations), al Anfal (Surah 8, 31 citations), at Tawba (Surah 9, 58 citations), al Ahzab (Surah 33, 35 citations) and Muhammad (Surah 47, 21 citations). Together, these citations represented 71.5% (306 of 428) of all citations noted. The distribution of ayat cited in each of these surahs is shown in Figures 1.
.....
The three most oft-cited ayat were Surah at Tawba (9:38, 13 citations) and Surah al Maeda (5: 51, 10 citations; 5:52, 9 citations). Neither of the “sword verses,” 9:5 and 9:29, were cited by al Zawahiri.
I found the last sentence interesting - since he has no aversion to the sword.
Regards
Mike
Al-Qaida and the Arab spring: after bin Laden
Paul Rogers writes a commentary, summarised as:
Quote:
The death of the al-Qaida leader is a symbolic moment. But far more important is that the future of his movement - and much else besides - is closely tied to the success or failure of the Arab risings.
Near the end:
Quote:
The hope within al-Qaida is that the aspirations embodied in the Arab spring are dashed, and that it can benefit from the ensuing deep disillusion..... After the failure of democratic and non-violent protest, they will work strenuously to embed a core idea - that the only path to renewal is Islamist and it must be won by violence.
Clearly there is an overlap here with Bob's World's writings.
Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-ro...fter-bin-laden
AQAP likes aviation, keep the guard up
I'm sure after the underwear bomber attack and another attack I've posted that we are lucky AQ seem to have preference for attacking aviation.
In a short analysis an open source terrorism analyst, Raffaello Pantucci, refers to:
Quote:
But for terrorists the optimal target will continue to be aircraft in transit. The problem from a terrorist’s perspective is that a bomb at an airport is very similar to a bomb in any other public place, except the security is tighter ..... Consequently, it can seem easier to simply deposit a device on a public transport system where security will be far less. Furthermore, it lacks the drama of an attack on an international flight.
As Brian Michael Jenkins put it in 1974, “terrorism is theater” and an airplane full of people traveling between two developed economies remains the only sure way to guarantee a large media splash, dramatic economic damage and intense attention for your cause. Given AQAP’s continuing fixation with aviation, security in the air will continue to be a major headache in the years to come.
Link:http://raffaellopantucci.com/2011/05...g-at-aviation/
I do wonder what we would do if AQ or AQAP decided on an alternative target set, which fulfilled:
Quote:
..a large media splash, dramatic economic damage and intense attention for your cause.
A number of targets come to mind: mass transit, a few parts of critical national infrastructure (CNI) and "theatre" at iconic targets.
The coming struggle within al-Qaeda
A short briefing paper on 'The coming struggle within al-Qaeda' by the UK-based Quilliam Foundation:http://www.quilliamfoundation.org/images/aq10may.pdf
It ends with:
Quote:
For the international community, this range of competing trends within al-Qaeda, combined with the game-changing developments of the Arab spring, together create a unique opportunity to undermine and divide al-Qaeda at an ideological and practical level. While military force certainly has a role to play against Al-Qaeda (as was demonstrated by the US raid that killed bin Laden), other tools may also become increasingly effective at fragmenting the organisation from within.
What makes this worth reading is one of the two authors is Noman Benotman, an ex-LIFG leader and who was at one time an "insider" within 'AQ Central'.