Historical note on KSA-Pakistani links
I have seen references to the historical and this thread often has posts on the sometimes supportive role Pakistan plays now in Saudi security. So thanks to a "lurker":
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In the aftermath of the 1979 takeover of the Grand Mosque in Mecca by extremists, Saudi Arabia was looking for foreign troops from a Muslim country to address its internal security dilemma.
On return, the delegation recommended to General Zia ul Haq that Pakistan should only send advisors and trainers, but no combat troops should be sent to Saudi Arabia as this will complicate Pakistan’s relations with Saudi Arabia’s neighbors. Zia overruled and agreed to deployment of a large Pakistani contingent.
Saudi Arabia was looking at this contingent from mainly internal security point of view and they wanted operational and administrative control of the contingent. Kallue was of the view that a Pakistani officer should be the overall commander of the Pakistani force and on this issue he did not go to Riyadh. In 1982, a formal agreement was signed and Saudi Pakistan Armed Forces Organization (SPAFO) headquarters was established at Riyadh. Pakistani troops were stationed at different locations in the kingdom and numbered about 17,000.
An enlarged armoured brigade consisting of three armoured regiments, one armoured infantry battalion, one artillery regiment and other supporting elements was stationed at Tabuk. …An anti-air craft regiment as well as an artillery regiment were stationed at Khamis Mushayet while technical and EME elements were stationed at Taif. In addition, trainers from the Pakistan Air Force and Pakistan Navy were also stationed in Saudi Arabia.
Taken from the Pakistani Defence Journal, October 2016
Bearing gifts can come with penalties
So the King has been on a tour of South-East Asia, with promises of investment and trade:
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Taking in Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, Japan, China and the Maldives, the king spent March leading a concerted effort to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s commercial links with Asia’s fast-growing economies.
The author concludes there can be a downside:
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Investment with the heft the Saudis offer is too tempting to pass up, but King Salman’s visit will only help export his country’s hardline doctrine to places where that could do without it. Both Malaysia and Indonesia urgently need to ease tensions between restive religious communities, but Saudi Arabia aims to open more Islamic schools across South-East Asia, increasing not only literacy in the Arabic language but also Saudi religious teaching and influence. That could be a heavy price tag indeed.
Link:https://theconversation.com/a-rattled-saudi-arabia-pivots-for-support-to-south-east-asia-74856?
The changing security dynamic in the Red Sea
This Open Democracy article will be copied to the historical Egypt thread and the current Egypt thread that contains a few posts on the two islands being transferred from Egypt occupation back to Saudi Arabia. That thread is:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...t=18454&page=5
It is raises some interesting points, notably the KSA-Israeli relationship. I had missed this news, with my emphasis:
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As such, the expected transfer of the islands is revealing a number of regional dynamics. The most vivid example of which is the new perceived strategic role of Saudi Arabia. The kingdom is expanding its role in the horn of Africa, especially with the recent conclusion of
a deal with Djibouti to build a military base on its territory. The strategic location of the base, across the Yemeni shore, gives Saudi Arabia the ability to project its power over the Bab El Mandab strait. This serves to consolidate the position of Saudi Arabia as the reigning power over the Red Sea.
Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-a...ic-of-red-sea?
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Royal Rumble – Dynamics of Saudi Royal Family
Hamid Hussain has sent a commentary on the struggles with the Saudi Royal Family and their usually quiet competitors for influence. It is seven pages and is on the attachment.
It starts with:
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In the last two years, Saudi Arabia has gone through many changes. Absolute monarchies are not easy to decipher. There are many opacities and it is very difficult for any outside observer to have a real sense of events. Two main factors are very limited expression by Saudis in their own country and opaque decision making process in the form of decrees with flavor of palace intrigue. A Saudi will not express his honest view in the presence of another Saudi due to fear factor. In view of these limitations, the perspective of an outsider has severe limitations.
Current system of governance of the country is based on accession to throne of one of the sons of the founder of the country Abdul Aziz bin Abdur Rahman al-Saud (d. 1953). He works with other family members especially senior princes, Council of Ministers (most of whom are also royal family members) and Council of Senior Clerics in running day to day affairs of the country. There is a fair amount of competition among all these groups about various issues and King carefully balances his act to avoid open conflict.
A twon under siege, not in Syria, in KSA
I am aware that the minority Shia population, mainly in the Eastern Province, are not the happiest Saudi citizens; with occasional rioting and more.
So I was surprised to read that one town has been under siege for two months:
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....the Saudi government had just begun a war on a town in the country’s restive east – a battle that is still raging despite receiving very little media coverage both within the conservative Kingdom and outside it. Traditionally Shia, Awamiyah – a 400-year-old district in the eastern Qatif province home to around 30,000 people – has been surrounded by siege barricades put up by the security services since attempts to evict residents turned violent on 10 May.
Link:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7877676.html
This report has a short film of protected diggers demolishing buildings, with armoured vehicles close by and firing machine gun bursts:https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20...zbaQSA.twitter
The most volatile period in Saudi history in fifty years
Following the purge in KSA yesterday Bruce Reidel has a short commentary and he ends with:Link:https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/ori...nal-guard.html
The BBC's report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-41874117
Mohammad bin Salman: MENA’s main threat to peace?
A lengthy profile of MBS, the Crown Prince which is not complimentary and at the end concludes:
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Bin Salman has two essential goals, which help understand each and every one of his domestic and regional policies including his aggression against Qatar, his alliance-building activity with the UAE and Egypt, his war in Yemen, his efforts to secure western support by talking a little “liberal Islam”, and more: the first goal is to prevent a resumption of the ‘Arab Spring’. Those autocrats have all felt the heat in 2011, they feel a bit better now, but they also know that the ashes of that historic revolution are still burning under the snow and ice of the ‘Arab winter’. The second goal is, as mentioned earlier, regional Saudi supremacism and, if he could, the destruction of the KSA’s arch enemy and rival, Iran. There is nothing this crown prince and future king will not do or push others (Israel, Trump, etc.) to do to accomplish those two goals. If this dangerous character has his ways, it will mean the end of hope for Arab democracy, and wars without end throughout the whole region.
Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/north-...at-not-reform?
What’s behind the sudden ouster of top Saudi military commanders?
A short Brookings article by Bruce Reidel and as a taster:
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The only clear winner is Iran. The top American general in the region
said this week that Iran has accomplished more in Yemen in the last five years than it did in building up Hezbollah in Lebanon in 20 years. When the war began in Yemen, Iran had limited connections to the Houthis, it urged caution on the rebels but was ignored. Now it has a robust relationship. Iran has every reason to perpetuate a conflict that costs its rival Saudi Arabia some $5 billion per month and costs Iran a pittance.
Link:https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order...ry-commanders/
Saudi-assisted film of jihadi home movies
Noticed this film is on release in the UK & USA and their website describes the film as:
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PATH OF BLOOD depicts Islamist terrorism, as it has never been seen before. Drawn from a hoard of jihadi home-movie footage that was captured by Saudi security services, this is the story of Muslim terrorists targeting Muslim civilians and brought to justice by Muslim security agents. It is a stark reminder that all who are touched by terrorism are victimized by it. A powerful and sometimes shocking cinematic experience, PATH OF BLOOD reveals how brainwashed youths, fuelled by idealism and the misguided pursuit of adventure, can descend into madness and carnage. The raw, unvarnished footage, to which the filmmakers negotiated exclusive access, captures young thrill-seekers at a jihadi “boot camp” deep in the Saudi desert, having signed on to overthrow the Saudi government. They plot to detonate car bombs in downtown Riyadh, become embroiled in a game of cat and-mouse with government forces and, as their plans unravel, resort to ever more brutal tactics. Adopting a strictly objective approach, the film doesn’t editorialize and contains no interviews or “talking heads” commentary. The home video footage was shot by the terrorists themselves, allowing viewers to see them in all their complexity, while compelling audiences to draw their own conclusions.
Their website refers to a book:
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It is co-authored by PATH OF BLOOD co-producer Thomas Small and director/producer Jonathan Hacker. Building upon the two years of research, the book draws on interviews conducted with members of the Saudi security forces, Western diplomatic and security officials, on- and off-the-record briefings from the Ministry of Interior and captured Al Qaeda terrorists. This access allows the authors to tell in detail the full story of a single Al Qaeda campaign and its defeat by the country’s internal security services. The Literary Review described the book as “A genuine page turner that offers some real insights…a fascinating piece of work... a grimly fascinating read...highly recommended.”
Link:http://www.pathofbloodfilm.com/
I have not seen the film, but is was shown this week in London.
One man dies a furore follows, meantime most ignore the Yemen
The current media and political furore over the suspected murder of Jamal Khashoggi inside Saudi diplomatic premises has taken on many dimensions, whilst ignoring many others. Notably the famine and deaths in the Yemen. Plus the actions of the Turkish government towards their own journalists.
Might the murder actually have an impact on the Saudis and their waging war in the Yemen?
Will outsiders to the region now understand what governance means in MENA?
A profound comment by Rami Khouri via Twitter:
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An important element of this episode is that normal, ordinary people around the world now understand how normal, ordinary Arabs have felt during the past 5 decades of authoritarian governments that treat their citizens like idiots or sheep, almost always with foreign support.
His short bio:
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Senior Fellow & journalism professor, American Univ. of Beirut;syndicated columnist; nonresident senior fellow, Harvard Kennedy School.
Needless to say the KSA explanation appears to be flawed and has been changed yet again.