Who's on first? with apologies to Abbot & Costello
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rex Brynen
I think it is absolutely essential, in cases like these, to understand the subtleties and complexities of the organizations, cadres, and supporters involved.
Hamas did not win election in 2006 on a "destroy Israel" platform. Indeed it deliberately underplayed this (since it was a vote-loser) and emphasized reform and good governance issues instead. Polls show that most Palestinians accept a two-state solution to the conflict—including, by some surveys, most of those who voted for Hamas in 2006.
Rex,
Defining who is who in the major league game that is the ME is vital. References are always appreciated :D by those of us working on improving our understanding. I would also note that the never ending 'negotiation' takes place in many venues and via many different methods (have I mentioned DIME lately?).
I would ask your patience as I share a little hard won first hand knowledge. Wrongly or rightly the fault line that is Judaism, Christianity, and Islam takes on a more urgent and 'in-your-face' quality in some parts of the ME. With many of the more educated and older folks I was humbled by the hospitality that was offered to me in Iraq. Over time many of the kids that I dealt with came to learn that a Christian such as my self was not the nasty stereotypical caricature that they had been taught. Jews, in my opinion, had it worse than I. With fighting age folks things were always precariously balanced and for a good part of my tour I was consistently and pleasantly surprised to wake up the next morning. Perhaps things are different in Israel, I have not yet lived there, so I can not truly say...however with regards to Hamas' history and potential for change my trust levels are low.
Regards,
Steve
Bitterlemons on the Gaza fighting
Interesting Israeli and Palestinian perspectives, as always, from bitterlemons.org:
War in Gaza
December 29, 2008
Edition 46
- Limited strategic objectives by Yossi Alpher
Under the best of circumstances, this operation will not solve our Hamas problem.
- War crimes in Gaza put PA in awkward place by Ghassan Khatib
The Israeli attack on Gaza is strengthening Hamas politically and increasing public support and sympathy for the movement.
- Replaying the 2006 Lebanon War by Yisrael Harel
Israel's reticence to deploy ground forces will generate a very negative outcome.
- An Israeli trap for Hamas by Mkhaimar Abusada
Military operations are like snowballs: the more momentum they gather the bigger they become.
A sample (more at the link above):
Quote:
AN ISRAELI VIEW
Limited strategic objectives
by Yossi Alpher
Israel has opted to launch a major attack on Hamas in Gaza. The idea appears to be to use heavy military force, primarily from the air, but with a limited objective: to weaken Hamas to a point where it returns to a ceasefire on conditions congenial to Israel.
The opening conditions are favorable from Israel's standpoint: it achieved tactical surprise in launching a Sabbath attack while much of the world is busy with Christmas and New Year celebrations. The United States is supportive and is in any case between administrations; PM Ehud Olmert's recent visit to Turkey gave Syria an incentive not to meddle; Egypt shares Israel's frustration with Hamas and seemingly--through the vehicle of FM Tzipi Livni's meeting with President Hosni Mubarak on the eve of the attack--gave its blessing. The Israeli political scene, both (Zionist) left and right, is supportive, to the extent of setting aside the current election campaign.
Militarily, Israel ended up with little alternative but to respond to Hamas rocket attacks. Even the Egyptian mediators between Israel and Hamas agreed that the latter had unilaterally broken a ceasefire. Hamas seemed to believe it could fire rockets at Israeli civilians with impunity, while arming and fortifying Gaza and flouting Egypt's invitation to negotiate a unity government with the West Bank-based PLO.
Yet the difficult part for Israel is to attack, achieve something, then get out. Minister of Defense Ehud Barak and IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi are clearly not anxious to get drawn into ambiguous ground warfare that could multiply Israeli losses and lead to reoccupation of Gazan territory. Nor is the Israeli public or body politic interested in renewed, open-ended occupation of 1.5 million Palestinians in Gaza or even a portion thereof. On the other hand, the ghost of Israel's failed war against Hizballah in 2006 hovers over this operation: it must end by strengthening Israel's deterrent profile against the militant Islamists.
At the end of the day, however, the operation confirms the contention I have voiced in these virtual pages repeatedly over recent weeks and months: neither Israel nor anyone else has a long-term workable strategy for dealing with Hamas in Gaza....