Crisis in Yemen, the Rise of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and U.S. National Sec
Crisis in Yemen, the Rise of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and U.S. National Security
Entry Excerpt:
Crisis in Yemen, the Rise of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and U.S. National Security - Highlights from today's American Enterprise Institute event in Washington, D.C., can be found at the link. Participants included Christopher Boucek, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Edmund J. Hull, Former U.S. Ambassador to Yemen; Katheline Zimmerman, AEI; and Frederick W. Kagan, AEI.
Event summary follows: The United States must develop a comprehensive strategy toward Yemen beyond counterterrorism, panelists concluded Tuesday at the American Enterprise Institute. Katherine Zimmerman, an analyst and the Gulf of Aden Team Lead for AEI's Critical Threats Project, outlined the six most likely and dangerous crisis scenarios in Yemen that could result from the current political stalemate, including the collapse of Yemen's economy or a mass-casualty attack on the United States by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
Frederick W. Kagan, the director of AEI's Critical Threats Project, argued that the United States, in addition to its regional and international partners, has a vested interest in preventing Yemen from complete state collapse. Christopher Boucek of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace pointed out that while current American strategy is focused almost exclusively on counterterrorism, the greatest threat facing Yemenis daily is the looming meltdown of their economy--not al Qaeda.
Ambassador Edmund J. Hull described the challenges of on-the-ground implementation of a comprehensive strategy, given the limited ability of US officials to operate beyond the capital, San'a, due to security concerns. The panelists advocated drawing on the lessons from the American experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq to fine-tune an appropriate approach to Yemen that links development gains and security gains.
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Marc Sageman on the fuutreof Terrorism after bin Ladens death
Marc Sageman was in Switzerland this week, where he held a lecture on the Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich. He also gave an Interview to the online magazine of the University. Keeping the danger of terrorism in perspective, he sees no danger that radical elements could seize power in the arab countries, especially Egypt. Equally, he judges the risk from radicalized groups or individuals for Western societies as negligible.
For those who want to improve their German I link the article from the homepage of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology:
http://www.ethlife.ethz.ch/archive_a...mann_sch/index
Regards
PB
Al-Qaida’s Business Savvy Sows Uncertain Future
A good commentary, from a variety of opinions, although I've not watched the pod casts by an ex-AQ insider. The bureaucratic aspects I'd not seen before.
Ends with:
Quote:
Whatever the future maybe, al-Qaida faces challenges beyond that of getting used to a new leader. Gerges said the group is also grappling with financial issues as well as the existential threat of the Arab Spring, the popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa.
Al-Qaida also faces the threat of the U.S.-led war on terrorism, seemingly rejuvenated by the death of bin Laden and the troves of secrets taken from his compound. Still, analyst Bruce Hoffman said al-Qaida's corporate structure will help keep the group in business.
Link:http://www.voanews.com/english/news/...124280919.html
Why so few have joined al Qaeda's jihad
Hat tip to FP Blog for 'Why Is It So Hard to Find a Suicide Bomber These Days?', which is sub-titled 'A decade after 9/11, the mystery is not why so many Muslims turn to terror - but why so few have joined al Qaeda's jihad'.
Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article..._days?page=0,0
The author starts looking at the case of Mohammed Taheri-Azar, who launched a vehicle attack on fellow students at the University of North Carolina in 2006.
Quote:
For several decades now, Islamist terrorists have called it a duty for Muslims to engage in armed jihad...Tens of thousands have obeyed, perhaps as many as 100,000 over the past quarter-century, according to the U.S. DHS...At the same time, more than a billion Muslims -- well over 99 percent -- ignored the call to action....by my calculations, global Islamist terrorists have managed to recruit fewer than 1 in 15,000 Muslims over the past quarter-century and fewer than 1 in 100,000 Muslims since 9/11. (Moving on)
By the U.S. Justice Department's count, approximately a dozen people in the country were convicted in the five years after 9/11 for having links with al Qaeda. During this period, fewer than 40 Muslim Americans planned or carried out acts of domestic terrorism... None of these attacks was found to be associated with al Qaeda.
(Final sentence) We may not be so lucky in the future. But even if they succeed in killing thousands of us, attacks like these do not threaten our way of life, unless we let them.
I am sure we will see more such commentaries before the 9/11 anniversary. SWC has touched upon this issue before, although on a quick scan I failed to identify other thread(s). Often I cite Bob Jones reference to the difference between those who are angry and those who are motivated to take action.
What FP Blog did not state is the author, Charles Kurzman, has written a book 'The Missing Martyrs: Why There Are So Few Muslim Terrorists' and was reviewed on:http://motherjones.com/mixed-media/2...zman-jihadists
Amazon link, no reviews:http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_no...orists&x=0&y=0
Results of "How big is al Qaeda?"
Thanks to all those that voted on this post.
For some reason this post got stuck in OIF section.
So I just posted the results in the GWOT section.
Here is the link to the results here.
Stop looking for the next al-Qaida
A review article by Jason Burke that starts with:
Quote:
We've made progress fighting 'blame al-Qaida syndrome', but the search for new threats creates another dangerous disorder......In the last week there have been two good examples of a very familiar malaise that periodically affects governments around the world. Let's call it "blame al-Qaida syndrome".
Link:http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...-next-al-qaida
For an example of the 'blame' syndrome:
Quote:
"Operating largely from northern Mali, [al-Qaida in the Maghreb] presents an increased threat to our security," William Hague, the foreign secretary, recently told parliament.
It's not often that someone based in northern Mali, one of the most remote, poorest and desolate parts of the world, is described as an increased threat to anyone, let alone the UK or Europe, and it is difficult to really see the al-Qaida in the Maghreb organisation as one that should particularly worry the British or other security authorities. It has 1,000 or so active members at most, limited resources and almost no reach into Europe beyond a few scattered sympathisers. Its operations have been largely local and, though some of their antecedent groups in the region launched attacks in Europe, it has yet to do so.
Sounds like David Kilcullen's Accidental Guerilla needs updating IMHO. Who are our enemies?
Al Qaeda on the Ropes: One Fighter's Inside Story
A Newsweek article, that appeared on The Daily Beast, which opens with a sub-title:
Quote:
A young jihadist returns to his former unit on the Afghan border and finds only the desperate remnants of bin Laden’s once-dreaded organization.
Quote:
Deep among North Waziristan’s mountains, far from any village, Hafiz Hanif finally tracked down the remnants of his old al Qaeda cell last summer. The 17-year-old Afghan had wondered why he hadn’t heard from his former comrades in arms. They didn’t even answer his text messages in May, after the death of the man they all called simply the Sheik: Osama bin Laden. Now Hanif saw why. Only four of the cell’s 15 fighters were left, huddled in a two-room mud-brick house, with little or no money or food. Except for their familiar but haggard faces, they looked nothing like the al Qaeda he once trained with and fought beside. They welcomed him warmly but didn’t encourage him to stay. They said the cell’s commander, a Kuwaiti named Sheik Attiya Ayatullah, had gone into hiding. The others had either run off or died. “Why should we call you back just to get killed in a drone attack?” Hanif’s friends explained.
Link:http://www.thedailybeast.com/newswee...ide-story.html
Worth reading. Some may find it chimes with the stated impact of the drone attacks, the ambivalent stance of the Pakistani Army and more.