Does the mere fact of repeating someone else's story verify its truth? If so, then the truth of the fairy tales of the Brother's Grimm must be indisputable.
Who, by the way, is this expert, Alexei Savich, that the AFP post cites?
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Russia to Prosecute Crimean Tatar Protesters Over Unrest
It is early times, early times. There was some promising talk about the respect for the Tartar minorities. Personally I already doubted the Russian ability to tackle the economic challenges, like the crushing fall in tourism and largely peacefully integrate the large and younger Ukrainian and Tartar minorities.Quote:
On Saturday, Crimean authorities promised to dish out criminal charges to the group, which numbered about five thousand, according to the BBC Russian service. The group broke through border posts near the city of Armyansk and crossed the border into the buffer zone between Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula to meet Mustafa Dzhemilev, former head of the Crimean Tatar Mejlis, the ethnic group's representative body.
The group blocked several highways near Simferopol, Bakhchysarai, Stary Krym, Yevpatoriya and Oktyabrskoye, Interfax-Ukraine reported.
Putin initiated war and ethnic hatred, which is easy to start but hard to stop. So far he might be 'winning', but the Russians are already losing in other areas. The war comes not only at short-term price economically but the increasingly regime-like internal repressions will likely take their toll on the long-term prospects of the economy. Russia is indeed becoming more and more dependant on private consumption which relies to a large degree on the state's policies which in turn are still increasingly dependent on raw ressources, especially energy.
RB, good points and simple answers.
Some of those sites you listed have a pristine reputation to uphold and won’t send innuendo to press. Not too sure about ND however !
I’ve known Kaur for six or seven years, had beers, broke bread, etc. Although half my age, inspiring and would make a good buck sergeant. But, the level of experience that a Western government would expect from say an analyst is a far cry. I’m not betting the farm on your links, nor an inspiring SGT.
Voice pipes. In the 20 years I've been here and 18 working for the Estonian govt., I have learned that even Estonian so-called voice pipes are not to be taken with a grain of salt. Unless of course, someone actually managed to slip TS info and get it published before being shot to death. You are then correct, that the Russians know we are reading, and, they are indeed sending this sierra to press hoping we do said. How we interpret said, well, that's where our successors' come into to play. That raw data must be accompanied with the reporter's spin, to include, at the very least, the source's reputation. I for one would not send that to the NMIC.
I would not go blaming EUCOM. Worked for them for years and they rarely had anything to say without DC pushing the buttons. All the O-10s in the world back then got a sound bite of say in decision making. But, you knew that already.
Yes Sir, it’s called a wire feed.
Crimea is the 4th time since the end of the Cold War that Russia exploited ethnic ruptures for political gain.
And how would that have been accomplished? The emasculation of Germany in World War I led to World War II. Arguably, the emasculation of post-Soviet Russia is leading to this confrontation.Quote:
Yes I know there are no balls big enough to confront Russia and dismember the federation and flush out the criminal regime either in Europe or North America.
Regardless if the same had been done with Russia as was done with post 1945 Germany there would not be this problem now.
Don't know the detail of that but the point I am making is that had the Russians been emasculated like the Germans were then we would not be having this problem now.
On the one hand, you are saying that Russia is a third-rate power and needs to be punished. But on the hand, you are saying it is a threat to world peace and harmony. Which is it?
No solution for grand strategy, but another piece in the conflict by the Guardian titled 'The readers' editor on… pro-Russia trolling below the line on Ukraine stories'. I have already pointed to an older story, pre-Crimea, with some detailed information on how 'fingers on the keyboard' get recruited to serve Putin's political interests. The Guardian has another older one, which I missed.
It is needless to say that current format of discussion and voting works pretty well in normal times, just like diplomacy. However if one side goes to war it can no longer function normally. An interesting aspect of the whole story is that not only the Kremlinbots vote each other up but also the useful non-payed idiots collect lots of Kremlin vote love. So that lot, often 'real users' tops recently the comment lists with their drivel.
Quote:
The final word goes to Luke Harding: "It is not Comment is free, but rather Comment is paid for."
wm---and who is this person typing this response Alexei Savich or a UK citizen---the question and your responses can always be twisted which ever way one decides to take a response that is the freedom on this particular blog--come over to the other site and see if your responses get attention for yourself.
The article and video by the way has been both confirmed to have actually been recorded when it was, and reflects heavy aircraft movement by type by both the Washington Post editors as well as the NYTs and has been picked up by the German news media der Spiegel.
So wm who really cares whose name is on the article for that matter we could use yours if you would like.
Did in fact the video confirm or deny an event is the question and who really give a flip about the name.
Stan ---then you inherently understand the term "confirm or deny"---yes it is a wire service but most editors of the major news feeds ask for confirmation before releasing which you already knew- I am assuming. Just as the mean and methods guys attempt to deny or confirm by other means.
Let's see now it is the WaPo, the NYTs and in Germany der Spiegel so I am assuming that no one in those organizations did a fact check as required before releasing remember these are western wire services not Interfax which relays straight propaganda for the FSB/GRU right now.
So the three above simply went with what a wing and a prayer and threw a dart against something pinned on the wall and said let's print it?
Come on Stan you know the game as well as I do.
Some in this business would call the simple release and accompanying video a "tip" and run with it--but then you knew that as well
Here on this thread it seems that one must quote something from a major source, double-check the author to make sure he is known and reputable and then be able to cross reference and double-check sources and oh by the way be sure to footnote and doubly make sure the footnote matches and is not misspelled. And make sure that is linked and pasted correctly.
It is a wonder that using this method gets any discussion going as I indicated to wm come over to the other side and mesh with the varied topics-- it is a different world and one does not have to ensure that the Ukrainian name on the article is a "well known author" or that is was carried by a non known entity on a poorly built web site which was probably poorly funded and run by two people getting info via a poor DSL connection from someone within the Crimea.
Noticed now that the mirhond's of the world are getting more press release attention from the wire services---do we need to double-check those press releases for their veracity as well? Before quoting them in this thread?
Of course I have seen these mirhond articles quoted as well on the Moscow Times as well a the Kiev Post so I guess they are questionable as well since they were referencing specific wire services.
By the way several of those wire service releases quoted much of what we have seen here via mirhond so I guess we can what ---state we have a "confirm".
RB,
Let’s back up to your post to WM for just a second. It was our job to discern open source in an IIR. So, to simply say that the author or his name means nothing is absurd. Do you contend that, regardless of the author’s background, experience and religious belief, the article is OK because there’s a video attached that could not possible be manipulated?
The video does not confirm anything to me without knowing who shot it and who that individual is. We're back to the reporter's spin on the report that an analyst needs in order to assess raw data. You contend it's real, confirmed or denied, but the author means nothing ? Huh ?
Confirm or deny is for spies and the media does not enjoy the luxury of mistakes and ratings. MI however does enjoy the freedom of making mistakes along the way, often, only too often, with little more than a black eye on an OER.
Do the math on those and tell me who owns and controls them. Conversely, Interfax like most of the Russian media is a blend of private and state ownership with little neutrality (unless you like visits from the mafia and police).
Glad to see you are paying attention to my constant pestering !
And, why not double check for mistakes, plagiarism, using the basic functions herein ? Noticed anyone else not doing so ? You can dump an article on this thread and not even comment. Some may, some not. You don’t always have to see something that’s not yet there, you don’t have to address issues from a 60s mentality before the internet existed.
I think most of us ignore her and most of us found her on a war gaming site. Cute blond though.
So she also quotes press releases ? What a novel approach !
This is a very strange thought pattern.
It has been discussed before that a deterrent - in this case a military one - only has value if the opossing party believes it will be used. There is no chance that EU countries would ever mobilise for such a purpose. European military weakness is clear and obvious not only in its constituted structure but also importantly that it poses no real deterrent to Russian expansionism because it will never be used.
What is happening is that your Europe is finding a number of good reasons to see Russian actions - the annexation of Crimea and the on-going proxy war in Ukraine - as nothing to be alarmed about. No doubt they are now figuring out how to get out of NATO commitments to those states in the line of fire - Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. I suppose Russian annexation of those states not be considered a threat to Europe either.Quote:
Europe isn't motivated to use more than its left hand's little finger to deal with issues because nobody is even only poking it. The Americans prefer to use their whole left hand, but using a mere little finger only is very different from having no fists.
Europe has no credible deterrent to Russian expansionism without the US and the US is also trying to sneak out the back door to avoid a confrontation with Russia. That is the truth learn to live with it.
This whole argument is meaningless unless the dates and reasons for migrations are taken into account.Quote:
There's a huge difference between a multi-ethnic state with ethnicities being concentrated in certain regions and thus able to claim independence and a multi-ethnic immigration state in which immigrants can claim to be a majority at most in parts of some cities. The former is no nation-state, while the latter can be (and is in Europe).
Given Russia's recent expansionism I suggest those who thought NATO was obsolete have been proved to be complete idiots.
The only European expansionism Russia needs to fear is financial/commercial/economic. Maybe you can provide a scenario where a NATO presence 500km from Moscow is a military threat to Russia other than if the Russians are planning actions which may/could result in NATO action?
Is it not obvious to you - as a German - that these small and vulnerable nations/countries seek protection under the NATO umbrella from subjugation and domination by a Russia with dreams of empire?
For those that have been writing here ----there has been totally missed in some or most of the comments---what are we in fact seeing now in the Crimea, eastern/southern Ukraine and with developments from today in Latvia and Russian attack helicopter flight training on the Estonian border---nothing more nor less than a new Russian UW strategy in a political warfare environment. We also have to mix in criminal elements and the oligarchs to get a better picture.
The following links were taken as I have stated a number of times from often overlooked websites and the "tip" on one led to the two links which are extremely critical in understanding what the Russians are calling New Generation Warfare broken into Phases. and how the US/EU/NATO are not even in the same game or on the same playing field.
Now take the Phases and overlay them on the hour to hour events in the Crimea, eastern and southern Ukraine and now with Lativa and one sees the relationship to their new strategy on winning a peace without going to war---or rather a Russian Sun Tzu approach.
Actually a number of posts here have been dancing around various Phases of the New Generation Warfare.
This is from the SWJ other side---Why Does Special Forces Train and Educate for Unconventional Warfare?
David---this link goes to what you have been writing about having a UW strategy and in the light on the Ukraine events, the cancelling of the Russian/Lithuanian Confidence Building treaty, and the new Russian Attack Helicopter Bde flight exercises along the Estonian border.
http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/6757...y-for-russias-...
The article goes to heart of the new Russian strategy referred to as the New Generation Warfare.
There is a 15 page pdf explaining the current Russian doctrine in this new UW strategy.
http://is.gd/berzins
Thanks Outlaw 09.
One of our students from Finland passed this on to me last week and it is getting a lot of press.
A very timely and informative (and I think potentially very important) report from the Latvia - the National Defence Academy of Latvia and the Center for Security and Strategic Research.
The PDF of the report can be downloaded at this link: http://www.naa.mil.lv/~/media/NAA/AZ...2002-2014.ashx
Note the excerpted figure one below for the assessment of Russia's view of the changing character of armed conflict. Also of note below that are the eight phases of the new generation of war.
I think this is a good analysis of the Russian version of unconventional and political warfare and we should study this so that we can develop the strategy to counter these forms of unconventional warfare and political warfare.
David---now take the Phases and one can overlay them on the exact hour by hour events in the Crimea, eastern and southern Ukraine and then watch the entire information operations unfold, the use of irregulars on the ground reinforced by intelligence officers and Spretnaz coupled with the Russian public political maneuvering ie 21 Feb agreement, Geneva, and Putin calls to US/EU leaders which really led nowhere but gained time and you have the perfect learning module for why one needs now a national level strategic UW strategy in order to counter political warfare or in this case what the Russians are calling New Generation Warfare.
And along the way do not forget the use of criminal elements and the oligarchs as part of the concept layered over by an ideology called ethnic nationalism.
Then watch our responses which have not even begun to answer the individual Phases the Russians are running through in a steady fashion---worth a doctorial thesis.
Question is what would Lind call it --4th or 5th generation warfare as it is a quantum leap forward and a leap we as a Force are not prepared (including senior military leadership/WH) for as we have gone in an entirely different direction misguided by COIN.
Robert might have some interesting comments on this as it drifts into his comments on war and peace---actually the Russian concept is to avoid war and gain peace as they define peace---they are as close to Sun Tzu as one can get in their thinking.
And guided by the boiling frog premise will continue.
No... nice try though.Quote:
And how would that have been accomplished? The emasculation of Germany in World War I led to World War II. Arguably, the emasculation of post-Soviet Russia is leading to this confrontation.
Yes Russia is a third rate power but is prepared to use its thrid rate military against those who are either unable or unwilling to confront them.Quote:
On the one hand, you are saying that Russia is a third-rate power and needs to be punished. But on the hand, you are saying it is a threat to world peace and harmony. Which is it?
Germany have always been incompetent when it comes to major strategic decisions. This time it is the decision - based on economic greed - to trust the supposed mutual interdependence between the two states as the basis of stability. Now dependence on gas imports and trade and the 350,000 German jobs related to that makes the pain of fixing that mistake too much for the now 'fat and soft' Germans to bear.
The Estonian press and MOD are not taking this current and past trend very seriously. Why should they... We see it every year and coincidentally with an increase in aircraft and paratroopers.
Note to Outlaw: This could be considered the worst intel link known to man, but, sadly, most Estonian youth actually read it and believe it too.
However, the MOD statements are real.
It's hard to cry wolf here when you see him every day in one form or another.
Russia Bound to Win Its Proxy War in Ukraine
By Alexander GoltsMay. 05 2014 22:34 Last edited 22:34
Quote:
It seems that Kiev is much to blame for the Ukrainian crisis in general. At the same time, however, it is a pardonable mistake. After Russia annexed Crimea and pro-Russian separatists seized one city after another, the public demanded that Ukrainian leaders take decisive action to try to control the chaos. But in recent decades, leaders everywhere have failed to achieve victory against paramilitary forces that use civilians as human shields.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinio...ne/499534.htmlQuote:
Objectively speaking, Russia is waging a proxy war in the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine that it is bound to win. While Moscow flatly denies any meddling in Ukraine, the facts speak otherwise. Several Ukrainian Army helicopters were recently shot down near Slovyansk by man-portable air-defense systems, or MANPADS. These weapons are not stored in police stations or even Ukrainian security service offices, meaning that the insurgents could not have seized them locally. What's more, it takes considerable skill to operate a MANPAD. The most likely explanation is that these weapons were brought in by units of Russia's special forces.
Look at this launch. Nice filming position. Reminds me camera work from Iraq. Before launch guy, who films says "Davai!" which means "go". Text says that tape was given to Russian daily "Komsomolskaya Pravda" journalists.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h4LjkTFGNeg
This FSB guy Strelkov has brought Chechen insurgents know how to Eastern Ukraine.
First I do not have a clue who the guy is. The name I offered up, Alexei Savich, is cited as an aviation expert by the AFP article you placed such stock in as a verification. I would like to know his bone fides as an aviation expert. Second, I would appreciate your being a little more explicit about which other site you would like me to come over to. The Internet is a pretty big place.
The article and video have confirmed nothing as far as I can tell. I've looked at open source satellite imagery of military airfields in Crimea dated 2014. Those airfields had significant numbers of Soviet-era combat fighter aircraft as well as larger aircraft. (I'll admit my "squint" skills have atrophied so I'm not sure what they all were, and I did not have a light table to look at them as closely as one might like.) For all I know the videos and reports you cite are just people seeing those aircraft flying around to get ready for some kind of flyby for Putin on Friday.
The following account, from page 43 of John Prados' [I]The Soviet Estimate[/I, details the source of the 1950's "bomber gap" and is rather instructive I think:
For confirmation, here from Wikipedia, is an alternative report, citing a completely different source,Quote:
The Russians scheduled another flyover for their Air Force Day ceremonies . . . . [T]he US air attach to the Soviet Union , Colonel Charles E. Taylor, went out to Tushino to watch the air parade. It appears that the Soviets . . .execute a deceptive flyover. Taylor saw first ten then eighteen Bison jet bombers fly past the reviewing stand . . .. The flyover was deceptive because the Soviets evidently pressed into service every available Bison and then had the first serial of planes circle, out of sight of the reviewing stand, to make a second pass overhead.
A good analyst cares whose name is on a report because source evaluation is a significant part of analysis. An IIR was (and I presume still is) evaluated in terms of the source and the content. The need for both should be obvious: a good source can be deceived and thus report as true something that is false, as the story above makes poignantly clear about Col. Taylor.Quote:
Adding to the concerns was an infamous event in July 1955. At the Soviet Aviation Day demonstrations at the Tushino Airfield, ten Bison bombers were flown past the reviewing stand, then flew out of sight, quickly turned around, and flew past the stands again with eight more, presenting the illusion that there were 28 aircraft in the flyby. Western analysts extrapolated from the illusionary 28 aircraft, judging that by 1960 the Soviets would have 800.[5]
[5] Heppenheimer, T. A. (1998). The Space Shuttle Decision. NASA. p. 193.
'We're Not Laughing Anymore,' Says EU Commissioner On Relations With Russia
More at the link and videos tooQuote:
The European Union's enlargement commissioner, Stefan Fuele, says the EU has contributed to the current conflict in Ukraine by "failing" to understand Russian President Vladimir Putin's past statements about the legacy of the U.S.S.R.
But first, he acknowledged, the 28 EU member-states must put aside their own internal differences and find common cause in engaging constructively with Russia. A number of European members -- including Germany, the Mediterranean states, Hungary, and Finland -- are seen as putting economic ties with Russia ahead of a unified EU front.
Following youtube links are in Russian.
Ukrainian SBU claims that they have got phone call between Donetsk self defence forces and Russian fascist Barkashov, where Barkashov gives intructions about referendum in Donetsk. "No federalisation, just Donets Respublic"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xeCWGxGVUk
Look at this video, where Barkashov tells about 1993 white house attack, where at 0:45 you can see faschist greeting by troops. Text about motives are interesting, but I don't have time to translate :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlG86r2uasM