He has put a secession of the Eastern Ukraine on the agenda - a very different situation than six months ago.
What he lost is the prospect of a Moscow-friendly government in Kiev.
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He has put a secession of the Eastern Ukraine on the agenda - a very different situation than six months ago.
What he lost is the prospect of a Moscow-friendly government in Kiev.
Ukraine’s Next President Vows to Restore Order and Mend Russia Ties
The turnout was indeed quite high, especially considering the difficulties to vote in annexed Crimea and the two oblasts where thousends of insurgents roam. So roughly 1 in 8 could not participate in the national elections. The vote itself was surprisingly clear, giving Poroshenko a decisive wing. Not much chances for Moscow in the medium term to get a friendly Ukraine into it's orbit.
There are mostly hard choices ahead of the elected president, which will be sworn in later.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firn
I think Putin gave this up when he decided to take the Crimea and its voters. Maybe he already did so at the moment when Yakunovich fled, knowing that Y. was 100% corrupt and had discredited his political wing (= demotivated many of its voters) for many years to come.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuchs
Ukraine has no other option than to try to 'repair' relations with and coexist with Russia as the West failed them at a critical moment in their history even if it is just going through the motions.
Ukrainians will know that their only hope of independence and freedom from Russian domination will be to obtain nuclear weapons.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firn
After presidential elections fight continues in Donbass.
Here is one photo series from Donetsk about batallion "Vostok". Speculations started that Chechens are now involved. This is not the same Vostok that we remember from Georgia-Russia war.
http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/723894.html
Here is Russian war correspondent Arkadi Babchenko's blog with couple videos. All in Russian.
http://starshinazapasa.livejournal.com
Very good article about Russian hand in Ukraine.
http://translate.google.com/translat...n&hl=&ie=UTF-8Quote:
This war, without a doubt, go down in textbooks: it is conducted in the south-east of Ukraine by Moscow PR-agencies, commercial companies, their employees and friends of employees. Even sophisticated minds of Western political consulting gurus to this is not yet reached. This war is a new type of "Novaya Gazeta" explored in a number of sources, the documents become the property of the editorial board, and eyewitness accounts of our correspondents. In this issue you will find:
- materials of the criminal case involving Alexander Boroday;
- letters and "biography" Igor Girkin (Strelkova) and his companions;
- lists for the award based on the results of the Crimean campaign submitted to the presidential administration;
- Corresponding corporate employees who have taken an ideological row Ukrainian project, in particular, "the Privy Councillor", "Internet Research Agency" (FIA), the company "ArtMedia."
No doubt that money on PR-support of our Ukrainian politicians mastered more agencies and individuals from this craft. But today tell only those who acted directly on the territory of "brotherly country".
Chechens from Russia in Donetsk. Episode starts at 8:18 https://news.vice.com/video/bullets-...te-dispatch-42
This guy is enforcing fire discipline in the unit. Fraternal nations in war ...
We didn't "fail" them.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMA
Their government rejected our (not terribly attractive) offer and no government ever joined "us" or our alliances.
You're projecting your expectations - expectations which have no foundation in the real world. They had no reason to expect us to defend them.
I wonder about this. Western govs did fail but maybe not the West. I read an article that argues western business interests, privately directed, stopping doing business and pulling or threatening to pull out of Russia had a very great effect. Those that did did so without direction because after what Putin has done recently the uncertainty of doing business in Russia may not be worth the return. Supposedly this gave Vlad and the boys great pause. Firn would probably know more about it.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMA
Another thing that in my own uninformed opinion had an effect was the prospect of a really nasty insurgency getting going if regular Russian forces moved into Ukraine other than Crimea. It's one thing to take something easy, like Crimea, but it is another to face the prospect of an insurgency conducted by people who really know how to do it. In that sense the Ukrainians have taken care of themselves.
Then again the whole thing may start up again in a few months. Jamestown Foundation says the Russkis had to pull their forces back for the moment to demob conscripts and bring new ones in.
But ultimately your right, they'll nuke up again, or try to. Pakistan and North Korea have proven that if you have nukes and a bad attitude, you can get away with almost anything.
Sorry, here you make a severe mistake:Quote:
Originally Posted by JMA
Nuclaer weapons in the hands of a strong government may be a bonus, no real dispute.
However, nuclaer weapons in a state, that is in danger of becoming a failed state, may only accelerate the decline: there are fights within the state for the weapons and there is the high possibility that a neighbour uses the situation to secure imported weapons or dstroys production facilities.
Nuclaer weaopons neither prevent a state from becoming a failed state nor do they transform a failed state into a functioning state again. Therefore, Pakistan is an example with very limited value.
IMHO the Ukrainian government would be stupid to set the acquisition of nuclear weapons on the agenda.
That would make a difference if the Pak Army/ISI/feudal elites in Pakistan and the Kim family dynasty cared a tittle or a tot about the Pakistanis or the North Koreans. They don't. They care about themselves and having nukes gives them the ability to do a Mumbai, kill Americans or sink corvettes and get away with it. So for the limited purpose of keeping other people from invading or attacking you even in the face of provocation, nukes are just the thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ulenspiegel
Same thing with Russia itself. They get away with all the things they pull, stealing Crimea for example, because they have nukes.
The current world situation makes it pretty clear that if you have nukes, you are in a different class than if you don't. For Ukraine, getting them may be a problem. But having them will solve the Russia problem.
CNN about Chechens in Ukraine.
http://censor.net.ua/video_news/2872...chni_videofoto
mirhond---you amaze me with your comments here and at other blog sites that you are working.Quote:
Originally Posted by mirhond
You might like these photos taken off a cell phone of a dead Chechen foreign fighter who lived in Gronzy which I believe in in Russia therefore under control of the FSB so how did he get into the Ukraine and get killed at the Donetsk Airport mirhond?
Recognize the logo for the 4th Chechen FSB BN---who does it belong to and Putin has no control---come on mirhond finally your are a fascist as are the Chechens.
http://obozrevatel.com/crime/58036-c...to-i-video.htm
Replace "Ukrainians" with %nationname%, "Russians" with "Americans" and this statement become even more close to the truth.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMA
There is a much cheaper way for this.Quote:
Originally Posted by mirhond
Absolutely. If Canada and Mexico don't get nukes soon the US is bound to annex British Columbia and Sonora. Or maybe not...Quote:
Originally Posted by mirhond
There's a bit of sense in this...
http://time.com/139128/this-isnt-a-c...essarily-good/
Quote:
This Isn’t A Cold War. And That’s Not Necessarily Good
Four key reasons why the Ukraine crisis doesn't fit that description--and why that means the situation will deteriorate...
Steve, do try maintain an adult intellectual level please. Your example is plainly ridiculous.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dayuhan
That is not a credible argument.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuchs
Any unity of purpose in Europe - as has been seen during the Russian invasion of Ukraine - is near impossible without US leadership... and in this case with US leadership being impotent Europe's response to Russian aggression was pathetic (as pathetic as that of the US).
The potential problems in Europe start with Russian dreams of reestablishing their empire, Islamic based terrorism and in third place - with the departure of the US - a resurgence of the Germany of old.
The US is no longer willing or indeed able to provide a security umbrella in Europe against Russian aggression - or in the Pacific as a counter to China - so yes Europe needs to learn to stand on its own two feet. Who will lead Europe in this? Germany? That would a recipe for disaster.
As you like but the truth is that the US has never been a physical threat to its neighbors or anyone near on the scale as Germany and Russia were and Russia still is.Quote:
Originally Posted by mirhond
The Russian problem - to be truthful- was the result of leftist/communist inspired support of the Soviets from within the Roosevelt administration at the time. It took the US under Truman too long to counter Soviet influence... the rest is history.
If one studies the Russian mentality one will realize that it will take a nuclear deterrent - that will be used in time of need - to put the Russians back in their cage... and out of the non-Russian states that currently fall within the Russian Federation.
The Russians - correctly - are banking on the fact that neither the US nor any in Europe are prepared to act decisively to counter their expansionism.