Two questions on the "humanitarian aid" convoy
I think we all understand that this is not just "humanitarian aid", but...
Can the Russians bring in enough force in this convoy to change the momentum in the conflict? Outlaw estimated elsewhere that 500-600 individuals will be involved, but haven't the Russians already infiltrated much larger numbers? Is it a game changer, or a face saver?
Is it possible that the convoy is intended not to bring military aid, but to provoke the Ukrainians into stopping it, which could then serve as a pretext for more aggressive action? I don't know how devious the Russians are prepared to be, but it would be a huge embarrassment for the Ukraine if they descended on the convoy with full armed force only to discover (publicly, of course) that there's nothing remotely military about it. The Russians could then accuse the Ukraine of obstructing humanitarian aid and use that to justify forcing an opening... or is that too convoluted to enter their minds?
Not trying to imply an answer, just looking for opinions.
Photos and roses for GRU’s ‘spetsnaz’ casualties
This FT article is behind a registration 'wall', which allows limited access:
Quote:
In an anonymous military classroom somewhere in Moscow, 12 portraits in identical tortoiseshell frames stand on a metal bench placed on a dais. In front of each picture is a bunch of six roses, red and pink. The dead.....were operatives of Russian special forces. All 12 died in Ukraine in recent weeks. Officially, they were all on holiday.
It ends citing Nigel Inkster, of IISS, ex-SIS (MI6):
Quote:
It is about subversion, it is about espionage with limited use of deniable special forces and the use of deniable proxies...It is a war that is never really declared.
Link:http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f28913f6-1...#axzz3AMNKyZaz