Displaced and heading north?
A BBC News report:
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Al-Shabab militants have moved north to semi-autonomous Puntland after being pushed out of central Somalia, Puntland President Abdirahman Farole says....The president says they are gathering in Puntland's Galgala mountains and the Golis range that borders the self-declared republic of Somaliland.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17674996
I am aware of one dissenting tribe in Somaliland, but the BBC's own map indicates a not inconsiderable 'pro-government administrations' space between where Al-Shabaab was and where they allegedly are moving to. Now 'pro-government' can mean all sorts of things and perhaps there is no capability or will to oppose such a move north.
Saving Somalia: Turkey learns how to act
An intriguing FP Blog article:
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Turkey may just be able to fix this war-torn east African nation -- if it doesn't fall into the same traps of would-be saviors who came before it.
At the end:
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....even skeptics hope Turkey can find that delicate balance between partnership and tough love. Turkey's new humanitarians could be game changers -- if they can avoid wearing out their welcome.
Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...alia?page=full
CWOT's thoughts on the reported defections
Catching up I found CWOT's comment on the BBC report, which reminds us of AQ's failure in Somalia twenty years ago and ends considering what might emerge:http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=681
A jail you'd prefer not to be in
A few weeks ago a BBC travel programme visited a prison in Somaliland.
Hat tip to CWOT for id'ing this report by an American journalist, Eli Lake, visiting a very different prison for pirates and non-pirates like Al-Shabaab:http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...est-front.html
Al-Shabaab external operations -v- Mo Farah, Olympic champion
Hat tip to Clint Watts (CWOT) for identifying a Canadian newspaper report 'Star Exclusive: Documents found on body of Al Qaeda’s African leader detail chilling plans for kidnapping, attacks':http://www.thestar.com/news/world/ar...apping-attacks
Worth reading in full IMHO. Interesting to see the focus on Israeli / Jewish targets and in the UK.
Clint has a short commentary:http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=720
An interesting contrast in the reporting of Mo Farah's Olympic success, born in Somalia and moved to the UK when he was eight years old. Who calls himself British and a Londoner. Who will be the hero for Somali youth in the UK? Mo Farah or Al-Shabaab?
Al-Shabaab And Post-Transition Somalia
A short and very interesting commentary, which ends with:
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For more than a year, al-Shabaab has been fine-tuning its military strategy. The consensus among its leaders was to morph into a guerrilla movement and abandon traditional warfare by withdrawing into ‘Somalia’s Tora Bora’ – the mountainous region in Sanaag in the northeast, and into Ras Kamboni – a vast area of inaccessible jungles in Lower Jubba, near the border with Kenya. Both locations have been extremist hideouts for two decades.
Yet it’s al-Shabaab’s political strategy that’s likely to be more effective than its military one. The group now plans to rebrand itself as the alternative to the new Somalia government, should the latter becomes yet another playground for rapacious men.
Notwithstanding their brutal justice system, al-Shabaab has a track record of delivering three fundamental things that successive Somali governments have utterly failed to achieve: basic security, stemming corruption and a non-sectarian governing structure.
Unlike the new Somali government, which has a four-year term to achieve something, al-Shabaab is neither bound by term limits nor by a legal framework. Its faceless leaders are prepared to stay in the periphery until the new government commits suicide.
Link:http://africanarguments.org/2012/09/...by-abdi-aynte/
Calmer, cooking and bombing
Aidan Hartley has been in Somalia recently to make a documentary. He has written two short articles in 'The Spectator', the first starts with:
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I return to Mogadishu to find it’s calm – only a few assassinations, hit-and-run attacks, IEDs or suicide bombs — and at last most Somalis seem ready for peace. I’ve covered events here for 21 years and love imagining an end to war in this delightful city. I also know that it’s during times of calm, when you drop your guard — forgetting that there’s one rule for Somalis and another for foreigners — you end up dead.
He then writes about the risk of being kidnapped and preparations.
Link:http://www.spectator.co.uk/life/wild.../wild-life-44/
The next article uses a returning Somali restaurant owner's tale. Within are a few surprises:
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If Somalia could rid itself of extremists and warlords, it could have a bright future. The outside world often assumes that there’s a constant famine here; that all Somalis must be starving. And yes, countless thousands have died of hunger, but that was due to war, not drought or a harsh environment.
The truth is that Somalia has wonderful food in abundance. It has some of the best surviving tuna fisheries in the world, thanks to the pirates, who have protected these waters. Its river lands are fertile and the markets are piled with fruit and vegetables — all organic thanks to the isolation of Somalia for a generation. The meat — ah, the meat! There are more camels in Somalia than any other nation worldwide.
Link:http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/...g-for-freedom/
The documentary is The Master Chef of Mogadishu’ which was broadcast on Unreported World, Channel 4. I don't know if this podcast will work outside the UK:http://www.channel4.com/programmes/u...012/episode-12
Lights, Camera, Jihad: Al Shabaab's Western Media Strategy
A new ICSR report:
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In recent years, dozens of young Muslims from Europe and North America have gone to Somalia to fight with the al-Qaeda affiliate al-Shabaab. While the threat that al-Shabaab poses to the West can easily be overstated, its outreach to Muslims living in Europe and the United States has been very successful.
Through a combination of primary source analysis and background interviews in East Africa, together with a quantitative review of the group's Twitter output, ICSR's latest report -- Lights, Camera, Jihad: Al Shabaab's Western Media Strategy -- explains how al-Shabaab markets itself to Muslims in the West.
A taster:
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Al-Shabaab presents its mission in cosmic terms, invoking a civilisational conflict between the forces of Islam and non-Islam. This is coupled with attempts to develop an ‘ummah consciousness’ in potential recruits, encouraging them to identify with Muslim causes worldwide. Typically, the suffering of Muslims around the world is juxtaposed with the ease of life in the West. The central tenet of this messaging is that faith necessitates action, and Muslims need to recalibrate their priorities by placing the liberation of Muslim lands ahead of esoteric matters of faith.
Link to report and podcast for the launch last week:http://icsr.info/2012/11/icsr-report...edia-strategy/
The Shape of Al Shabaab’s Post-Kismayo Attacks
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Since African Union forces surrounded Kismayo, we have kept a database detailing every publicly-reported attack known or suspected of being carried out by the group and its sympathizers. This database runs from September 30, 2012, through December 5, 2012, covering a total of 68 attacks. In this article, we map the early part of Shabaab’s attempted post-Kismayo insurgency by providing a visualization of this data.
Link:http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawam...o-attacks.html