Robert Mugabe heckled in Zimbabwe Parliament
I wonder if the video (1:45 mins clip) was broadcast live or later in Zimbabwe.
The report starts with:
Quote:
Robert Mugabe has been heckled in the Zimbabwean Parliament by opposition MPs.The 91-year-old was giving his first state of the nation address in eight years, and opposition MPs took the opportunity to boo and heckle the President.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...arliament.html
Somehow I doubt this will replicate the downfall of a certain Rumanian presidnet many years ago.
Zimbabwe: down & out or just waiting for Bob to go?
I had missed this announcement, as had my usual sources of news on Zimbabwe:
Quote:
Use of the Zimbabwean dollar as an official currency was effectively abandoned on 12 April 2009. The Zimbabwean dollar is due to be demonetised (no longer legal tender) by the end of 2015
The Zim $ has a really bad record see:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimbabwean_dollar
For some African farmers their former white owners have the answers :wry::https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...c=nl_headlines
As tourists return to Victoria Falls, after a long absence, the cash registers "ring" and then:
Quote:
..the government has slapped a 15% tax on accommodation occupied by foreigners..
Link (with nice aerial clip):http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34290827
Elsewhere I have seen reports of a swingeing import 40% tax being imposed on imported educational material, pl;us all books. "Get the cash" again.
The reporter lauds the extended runway and new terminal so enabling long range jets to land. Well in 1985 the runway was quite enough for Boeing 707s to happily land; yes the terminal was small and quaint - I was there.:)
Then President Robert Mugabe managed, even with his staff being diligent, to:
Quote:
..read out the wrong speech at the opening of parliament.He gave the same one during his state-of-the-nation address on 25 August, when he was heckled by opposition MPs.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-34256898
Finally from The Zimbabwean Independent's Editor has a short explanation as to what has happened:
Quote:
Robert Mugabe’s unpleasant experiences of late are increasingly signalling that the end of his imperial rule is nigh; his reign is likely to end in a disgraceful or tragic manner. The imminent endgame is bound to be dramatic.
Link: http://www.theindependent.co.zw/2015/09/18/mugabe-faces-disgraceful-exit/
Zimbabwe. Dire is an understatement
Via a Zimbabwean emailing:
Quote:
Nairobi 15 October 2015
The bull in me has taken its leave. The domestic economic situation in Zimbabwe is beyond dire.
Structural unemployment (approx 90%) and non-existent growth (1-2% likely to be revised down) are the consequences of economic mismanagement and lack of policy formation. With 3 cabinet reshuffles
in 9 months, and almost $200mln (of a $3.1bln budget) being spent on the president´s office since the beginning of the year combined with wages at 80% of expenditure, it´s a wonder that there are
some who are looking past the risk and still investing in Zimbabwe.
In my recent trip I even came across samples of illiterate teenagers, these are the reverberations of the `lost decade´ (reference to the years of farm invasions and hyperinflation) whom the government has entirely failed to empower through insufficient educational policy. Gone is the status of highest education standards on the continent; O´ Level and A´ Level pass rates are a mere 20% and 10% respectively (down from 90% in 2000). One NGO doctor told our group that infant
mortality rates in Zimbabwe are the highest "outside a conflict zone", approximated at around 20%.
One in five kids fail to reach the age of one.
So who is to blame for the extended economic trough that Zimbabwe is in? Simply answered, the government. The state treasury issues short term securities, to accommodate its own spending, which sucks out dollars from the economy, this would explain rampant deflation (-3.11%) even the listed beverage blue-chip Delta has had to slash its prices by almost 25% as cash dries up. The funds accrued from taxes are turned over immediately to the civil service leaving little to actually
implement policy initiatives that provide the foundation for growth and employment. The government´s external debt ($9bln) is too high for the country to service especially as dollarisation erodes
competitiveness.
As long as the political power status quo remains, debt forgiveness on the whole is not a fathomable outcome, though it is one of few effective options for ending the rot - rescheduling in my view will do nothing and permit more graft. The country has recently seen some funds from the Eurozone and African Development bank and China keeps making promises, but these won't make a dent on the country´s outstanding liabilities. Zimbabwe has very few exports to speak of except platinum, gold, and tobacco - the diamond opportunity for now is lost, failing to raise the capex needed to dig deeper and extend mine life and production - this means the country´s current account deficit at
23% of GDP cannot be overcome. The country imports most industrial inputs as well consumer staples, erstwhile the land toils through another drought.
To add insult to injury the low levels in the Kariba dam mean electrical production is non-normal and more than half of every week in recent months is spent in darkness, which will likely trigger another downward revision in GDP estimates (Zambia is also suffering from the electrical
under-supply).
Dollarisation as is often argued was a short-term gift and a long-term curse - the short term benefits have been reaped, and now the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe is toothless, as pure demand and supply will determine the inflow/outflow of hard currency - with no ability to set recognizable interest rates, recent dollar strength has added to Zimbabwe´s liquidity woes (compounded by falls in commodity prices). But in an effort to survive, either through brilliant delinquency or just a
complete lack of options, the government has found a way to increase the supply of a `money´ they do not own.
In striking similarity to Nigeria´s action in defending its banking industry in 2008/9, the RBZ set up ZAMCO (Zimbabwe Asset Management Company), its purpose to buy the bad loans using T-Bills...these are denominated in US Dollars as opposed Naira! By issuing T-Bills the government has been effectively printing US Dollar money and currently the total value issued sits at around U$1.2bln
(10% of GDP). A perspective is that the government has mortgaged Zimbabwe´s future. Add municipality and parastatal debt mainly owed to banks, that number balloons - anyone will tell you that the
higher the debt to GDP ratio the sharper the fall in output growth...and so perpetuating Zimbabwe´s demise.
The country has no capacity to recover even if it wanted to...the man on the street is over the politics and lives with the corruption and it has tainted the fabric of Zimbabwean society. Worse still, political succession is far from clear, there is no trust and an untarnished outsider may be the only option for a swift, policy driven recovery.
Negotiating terms with the IMF & World Bank in the present economic context is dangerous, because execution will undoubtedly miss its targets as we head toward the next election in 2018 - this will
set those relations backward another five years. I would contend the real change for growth has to be driven by both local and foreign elements, a fresh political policy thrust that builds a competent and actionable government which is actually interested in the welfare of the people it represents is needed - I reiterate that debt forgiveness, an injection of cash through FDI, are the only way Zimbabwe emerges from a dust that has settled and now hardened....but you already know
that.
'Crocodile' to replace Comrade Robert?
Well, well a reformed crocodile:
Quote:
Emmerson Mnangagwa, the vice-president widely viewed as Robert Mugabe’s likely heir, claims to have protected white farmers from eviction
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...e-farmers.html
A reminder Comrade Robert marks his 92nd birthday next month:
Quote:
Mr Mugabe is currently on holiday with his family in east Asia, his office said.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35308230
Amidst a drought Kariba Dam could fail
Incredible and not what either Zimbabwe, or Zambia needs now:
Quote:
...the energy minister of Zambia declared that Kariba Dam, which straddles the border between his country and Zimbabwe, holding back the world’s largest reservoir, was in “dire” condition. An unprecedented drought threatens to shut down the dam’s power production, which supplies nearly half the nation’s electricity.
(Later) Kariba’s difficulties are more complicated. It has been nearly incapacitated by ongoing drought, which has lowered the reservoir’s volume to twelve per cent of its usual capacity. But if the reservoir is refilled, the dam faces the possibility of collapse. It was built in the late nineteen-fifties, and in the years since water flowing through the dam’s six floodgates has carved a three-hundred-foot-deep pit, or plunge pool, at its base. The plunge pool extends to within a hundred and thirty feet of the dam’s foundation; if it reaches the foundation, the dam will collapse.
Link:http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elemen...falling-apart?
A drought emergency in Zimbabwe:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35500820
Robert Mugabe eats giant cake at birthday party in drought zone
Classic, sad report; the title is followed by a sub-title:
Quote:
Zimbabwean president marks 92nd birthday with $800,000 celebration in area where 75% of staple maize crop failed
Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...n-drought-zone
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/c6c42...sm=12&fit=max&
Zim's annual budget US2b; lost US$15b in seven years
A rather dense article by a Zimbabwe watcher on a previously unknown interview last month of President Robert Mugabe, only partly cited:
Quote:
So where have our gold or carats been going? – the gems, and there has been quite a lot of secrecy in handling them and we have been blinded ourselves. That is our people who we expected to be our eyes and our ears have not been able to see or hear what was going on and lots of swindling, smuggling has taken place and companies that have been mining virtually I want to say robbed us of our wealth and that is why we have decided that this area should be a monopoly area and only the state should be able to do the mining in that area.
In brief by the author:
Quote:
If there is ever a scandal that should see Robert Mugabe leave office sooner rather than later, it’s his disclosure that the country was bilked of fifteen billion dollars ($15 billion United States Dollars) over the last seven or so years or so under his watch.
Link to the story published 14th March 2016:http://www.thezimbabwean.co/2016/03/...must-be-fired/
IIRC the cited newspaper is web-based and published outside Zimbabwe.
Who were the "eyes and ears"? Well the robbers include the army, the police, the CIO (intelligence agency), ministers, Chinese friends and more.
Zimbabwe's politicians ready themselves for Mugabe's death
A good explanation of the power struggle in Zimbabwe:https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...re-post-mugabe
Interesting that the release of government records in the UK, USA and Australia, may have an impact.
UN says half of rural Zimbabwe will need food aid by next March
Via a newsletter on Zimbabwe:
Quote:
In the second week of May, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) said that up to 4.5 million people - half of Zimbabwe's drought-stricken rural population - will need aid by March 2017. A few weeks before the UN launched an appeal for $360 million to provide life-saving assistance for more than three million people. The UN Resident Coordinator for Zimbabwe said at the end of May that $70 million has been received, leaving a gap of $290 million.
Meanwhile the country director of the UN World Food Programme, pointed out that Zimbabwe´s 2016 maize production forecast would fall below 60% of the five-year average. Zimbabwe's average harvest in the last five years has been between 700,000 and 1 5 million tonnes, against annual consumption of between 1.6 million and 1.8 million tonnes, he said. An El Nino-induced drought has hit southern Africa and cut the output of the staple maize crop. In March, the government said 4 million Zimbabweans required food aid, almost 30% of the national population.
The majority of Zimbabweans still live in the countryside, even though large numbers have moved to the cities.
Is this a pre-revolutionary time?
Will now be different and the mighty US$ is there too
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Firn
Sadly history has shown that a regime can survive a hunger crisis while many of it's citiziens might not.
Firn,
I would agree, but this report suggests that this time could be different and the key point is in bold:
Quote:
A general strike paralysed Zimbabwe on Wednesday as shops and businesses shut down, public transport came to a halt and children were turned away from school......A spiralling economic crisis means that Zimbabwe has run out of money. The regime can no longer pay civil servants or teachers and strict limits have been imposed on the amount that ordinary people can withdraw from bank accounts......In the past, Mr Mugabe, 92, would simply order the Reserve Bank to print money whenever his coffers were empty. But the worst hyperinflation in history forced Zimbabwe to abandon its national currency in 2009. The country now uses the US dollar – which Mr Mugabe cannot print.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...-out-of-money/
When will the regime not be able to pay the police and soldiers?
Let them eat the indigenisation law
Professor Stephen Chan is a SME on Zimbabwe and has an article on the visit to the City of London this week by Zimbabwe's Finance Minister:https://theconversation.com/zimbabwes-finance-minister-makes-a-doomed-pitch-to-londons-big-businesses-62015?
A reminder of the position:
Quote:
Zimbabwe has no money, and its government has no fiscal plan. Its reserves are emptied, tax revenues are inadequate, public funds are still ransacked, and much of the country’s remaining formal employment is in an unproductive public service.
(Later) But Mugabe is simply not trusted by the rest of the world, and he dares not mandate a change to the indigenisation law – especially not now, as his health declines and as he perhaps secretly looks to secure his wife’s path to succeed him. Indigenisation was meant to placate Zimbabwean nationalism, which still percolates among younger generations as well as older ones.
Soldiers unpaid two months now
A week ago I asked:
Quote:
When will the regime not be able to pay the police and soldiers?
According to this report:
Quote:
Zimbabwe has failed to pay the army on time for the second straight month, military sources said on Friday
Link:http://nehandaradio.com/2016/07/16/z...rmy-2nd-month/
They appear to be a Zimbabwe based radio station.
Even the "Veterans" say no more Robert
I missed the reporting last week that the veterans of the liberation struggle, who were used to often violently evict 'commercial' or white farmers a few years ago, had issued a statement against President Mugabe:
Quote:
We note, with concern, shock and dismay, the systematic entrenchment of dictatorial tendencies, personified by the president and his cohorts, which have slowly devoured the values of the liberation struggle...We are dismayed by the president's tendency to indulge, in his usual vitriol against perceived enemies, including peaceful protesters, as well as war veterans, when the economy is on its knees," the veterans' association's statement said. "He has a lot to answer for the serious plight of the national economy.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-36860159
Yesterday President Mugabe made his reaction clear:
Quote:
Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe has threatened to punish those war veterans who last week said they were withdrawing their backing for him.
At a rally of his Zanu-PF party supporters and veterans who remain loyal to him, Mr Mugabe also urged the veterans to choose new leaders.
He blamed the West for splits in the veterans' association. 'Once we find out who wrote that statement, the party will punish them. "During the war we had rebels who we punished... some by detaining them underground, feeding them there'.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-36906732
Today the BBC reports
Quote:
Zimbabwe’s war veterans’ spokesman, Douglas Mahiya, has been arrested. He was taken into custody on Wednesday, the day President Robert Mugabe threatened to punish those war veterans who last week said they were withdrawing their backing for him. Mr Mahiya, along with about 150 others, attended the meeting of the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans' Association which came up with the communique accusing Mr Mugabe of being dictatorial and egotistical.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-africa-36685940
Power: potential and real
An interesting commentary on two issues: the situation in Zimbabwe and the potential for social media to educate and mobilize the "masses".
A stinging sentence on the regime:
Quote:
..a political regime which has decayed and only exists to profiteer on people’s taxes, literally — if you doubt this profiteering, witness a first lady who spends US$1,35 million on a ring which is the equivalent of paying for close to 200 nurses’ salaries for a whole year.
Here is a SM passage:
Quote:
Let us be real here: the teenager is likely to read H-Metro, watch YouTube videos, spend time on Facebook, or follow Twitter debates and know more about “Stunner and Olinda“ or “Andy and Bev”. This is the generation that will vote, it has no time for rallies, for polemic political essays, newspapers and research papers; it is the selfie-obsessed narcissistic generation and they consume news in sound-bites not rumbling speeches done by old pot-bellied men.
Link:https://www.theindependent.co.zw/201...er-narratives/
LIVE: Coup under way in Zimbabwe?
Quote:
A coup is reportedly under way in Zimbabwe, with reports on social media claiming that the head of Zimbabwe military Constantino Chiwenga has given President Robert Mugabe 24 hours to vacate office after sacking his vice president Emmerson Mnangagwa.
https://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbab...babwe-20171114
The latest on Zimbabwe from AP
https://apnews.com/91bb7f9b5f2f4d00b...&utm_medium=AP
TRUNCATED
5:50 a.m.
- Zimbabwe’s army urges other security services to “cooperate for the good of our country,” warning that “any provocation will be met with an appropriate response.”
- The statement read out early Wednesday on state-run television calls on troops to return to barracks immediately, with all leave canceled.
- It says that if the country’s degenerating political, social and economic situation is not addressed, it “may result in a violent conflict.”
- The army insists that this is not a military takeover and that President Robert Mugabe’s security is guaranteed.
4:55 a.m.
- Zimbabwe’s army has announced that “this is not a military takeover” and that President Robert Mugabe and his family are safe and sound.
- “We are only targeting criminals around who him who are committing crimes that are causing social and economic suffering in the country in order to bring them to justice,” the army announced on state-run media.
- The army statement says that “as soon as we have accomplished our mission, we expect that the situation will return to normalcy.”
It's not a coup, it's a transition
A curious event in Harare, the army say we have moved, Robert Mugabe and family are safe and sounds of artillery fire in the north of the city. This is not a coup, a bloodless transition and the dismissed Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa is reportedly back in town. With the Presidential Guard still on duty.
BBC:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-41992351
A running story:https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...rt-mugabe-live
What happened and why: Part Two
Below is a link to mainly academic community outlet 'The Conversation' with a number of new SME articles and few from the archive.
Professor Chan comments on the PRC link:
Quote:
It is no coincidence that General Constantine Chiwenga, the Zimbabwe army chief, was visiting China when Mnangagwa was booted out. It seems likely that Chiwenga discussed his plan to intervene with the Chinese. Having supported and trained Mugabe’s rebel liberation army in the late 1970s and helped finance the country’s grossly mismanaged economy, Bejing must be relieved at the prospect of a return to actual economic management.
Link:https://theconversationuk.cmail20.co...5E7602346EC846
"Slow Motion Coup" should enter the SWJ lexicon
Quote:
Though the military that seized control after rolling out the tanks in the early hours of Wednesday was at pains to portray its takeover as anything but a coup, the reality is that the generals are now calling the shots. Troops are deployed on the streets of the capital, Harare, and at key security points, including the airport, only last week renamed the Robert Mugabe International Airport by a state apparatus that had one eye on a post-Mugabe era.What one observer called a “slow motion coup” is now playing out in Zimbabwe as the armed forces, led by General Constantino Chiwenga, seek to ease out the old regime and bring in something new. They are trying to do so in a manner that is palatable to regional powers, particularly South Africa, which have made clear they do not consider military coups an acceptable form of regime change.
https://www.ft.com/content/956bd71e-...8-7a9fb7d6163e
It's really the young -v- the old?
Yes the competition for power appears to be over who sits in the chair and nearby - within ZANU-PF - and somehow party branches, including the Women's League (previously Grace Mugabe's fiefdom) have called upon Robert Mugabe to stand down.
This could far more significant, especially if there are really free & fair elections:
Quote:
They make up a majority of Zimbabweans, with around three-quarters of the population under 35 years old today, and have borne the worst brunt of years of economic mismanagement.Millions of high-school and university graduates produced by one of Africa’s best education systems have sought work abroad as industry collapsed and inflation sky-rocketed. Others struggle to make ends meet with menial or manual piecemeal labour that makes no use of their skills.
The unexpected ousting of a man whose rule seemed like it would never end has brought the first glimpse of hope in years to many of them.
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...d-the-abnormal
All change, ah I'm not resigning says Cde Robert
I have just listened to Robert Mugabe's TV broadcast, where he did not resign; so one must wonder why the saviours of the nation / party let him do this. Everyone knows he is an old man and has had better days. The broadcast ended with some mumbles not normally broadcast.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-a...ses-the-nation
The accompanying BBC report refers to:
Quote:
In a live TV address, Mr Mugabe said he would preside over the ruling party's congress in December.The Zanu-PF earlier sacked him as party leader, and gave him less than 24 hours to resign as president or be impeached.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-42046911
Via Twitter one of the BBC's correspondents:
Quote:
So what now? The war veterans threatened more protests, the party threatened to impeach him, if he didn't step down... And yet the generals went along with tonight's long-winded, wordy display of studied ambiguity.
As for the most likely current successor BBC Radio Four has a short profile of the 'Crocodile' and one Tweet sums it up:
Quote:
In Emmerson Mnangagwa you are going to get a man leading Zimbabwe who is as horrendous as Robert Mugabe if not worse
Link to programme:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09fj3xh
All change, I'm resigning says Cde Robert
Well after a hectic few days President Robert Mugabe has resigned, after his own once loyal party, ZANU-PF, disowned him and impeachment by parliament was in prospect.
The BBC has multiple stories:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-42071488
Now will ZANU-PF hold onto power or share it meaningfully? Time will tell and for once Zimbabweans are optimistic. One exile I know simply said it would be a long time before their family returned - there are millions abroad, notably in South Africa.
So after a long run, this thread started in March 2017, with 387 posts and 139k views, I have merged the current thread into this and will open a new thread Zimbabwe: after Mugabe resigns.