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A really deeply telling article if correct as it is the first Russian admission that Russia is supplying new advanced weapons in large numbers into the Donestk region sine 3 Jul.
The question is why? Or is Putin all in now for an open UW fight?
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article..._putin_donetsk
Nope, they didn't. Lavrov's speech doesn't contain word "nuclear". Besides, Ukropian army isn't fit to hold a candle to Russian one.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMA
@JMA
Ukraine starting drifting away was IMHO the loss for Russia. It indicates that Russia was unable to rule in her backyard by means of more or less soft power. This basic problem is not solved! Quite contrary.
An occupation of a region that was Russian and only was attached to Ukraine in 1954 due to administrative reasons, is therefore not that impressive, they have now less and pay more.
Re perceived weakness of US and Germany: To see that further Russian occupations are stalled or delayed by "weak" western response is interesting and may only indicate that your understanding of weakness in fawlty: Is it really weak when economic warm-up exercises of the blue team lead to problems for the red team? Here Putin may have already come to different conclusions than you. :-)
Obviously, we have simply different understanding of good strategy. Russian military operations, while elegant to a certain extend, do not solve the basic problems Russia has, but actually increase them, that is in my book not a win and I can live with such "lessons taught".
Personally I am quite happy with a low profile strategy that gives both sides enough time to assess the situation and adjust their future actions, like the rounds in a game of poker, each player has the opportunity to quit with an acceptable loss of face. That is much better than stupid knee-jerk operations which are only PR stunts and may lead to unintended consequences.
Yes... they don't need to use the word to make the point. Russia is the bully boy of the region, that is why I suggested that the US should offer to supply Ukraine with tactical nukes - they will use them and make Russia pay a heavy price for any future adventurism.Quote:
Originally Posted by mirhond
Understandable move to grab Crimea now when the US is weak and Germany won't do anything rather than wait. Now was the time. Putin got it right.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ulenspiegel
Yes, Ukraine for historical reasons is not a natural ally of Russia. Putin I suppose recognised this and took care of the Crimea issue.Quote:
It indicates that Russia was unable to rule in her backyard by means of more or less soft power. This basic problem is not solved! Quite contrary.
Yes, if I were looking for an excuse for my country's gutlessness I would make that argument as well.Quote:
An occupation of a region that was Russian and only was attached to Ukraine in 1954 due to administrative reasons, is therefore not that impressive, they have now less and pay more.
"Weak"? Well maybe in the case of Germany it was a case of not being prepared to pay the cost of punishing Russia.Quote:
Re perceived weakness of US and Germany: To see that further Russian occupations are stalled or delayed by "weak" western response is interesting and may only indicate that your understanding of weakness in fawlty: Is it really weak when economic warm-up exercises of the blue team lead to problems for the red team? Here Putin may have already come to different conclusions than you. :-)
So we turn to Churchill to understand the German position:
But then again I can't read Putin's mind as you seem to believe you can. So tell me what he is thinking now and what made him change.Quote:
An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last. -
Winston Churchill
There are different levels of strategy, some provide short term results but long term catastrophic failure - like germany in WW1 and WW2 - and other result in long term gains not initially obvious. Take your pick.Quote:
Obviously, we have simply different understanding of good strategy. Russian military operations, while elegant to a certain extend, do not solve the basic problems Russia has, but actually increase them, that is in my book not a win and I can live with such "lessons taught".
As a German I assume you have learned from the errors of your past... but don't lecture me, lecture Putin.Quote:
Personally I am quite happy with a low profile strategy that gives both sides enough time to assess the situation and adjust their future actions, like the rounds in a game of poker, each player has the opportunity to quit with an acceptable loss of face. That is much better than stupid knee-jerk operations which are only PR stunts and may lead to unintended consequences.
Ulenspiegel, as far as I understand for Russian elite this is not problem paying more. They just have to increase their income to pay more to afford geopolitical Faberge eggs.
Last time EU tried to solve military conflict 2008. French president Sarkozy signed with Russians peace plan. To remember the details
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_...1#.U8Juq2IaySM
In less than two months later French foreign minister signalled to Russia to continue business as usual.
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_...1#.U8JvyGIaySM
From this Jamestown article we can jump directly to that fresh column.
http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=56021
After Carnegie story you should read this one.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/pirel...ard-1405072159
It is very suitable to end this post with quotin Lenin "'The capitalists will sell us the rope with which to hang them".
Ps I hope that somebody put words to Lenin mouth and reality is different.
http://www.nytimes.com/1987/04/12/ma...-language.htmlQuote:
Here is what Mr. Annenkov claims he copied from notes in Lenin's handwriting, italics in the original: ''To speak the truth is a petit-bourgeois habit. To lie, on the contrary, is often justified by the lie's aim. The whole world's capitalists and their governments, as they pant to win the Soviet market, will close their eyes to the above-mentioned reality and will thus transform themselves into men who are deaf, dumb and blind. They will give us credits . . . they will toil to prepare their own suicide.''
come on Russian expert mirhond---what a broken record---this is the same Russian Army that sends in Russian SF carrying their own passports and they get killed and have those passports on them, the same Russian Army that "somehow" misplaced 25 T64 tanks that were to be destroyed under the OCSE regime, the same Russian Army that drove Grads to the Ukrainian border parked them and then did what---walked away, the same Russian Army that yesterday admitted to sending advanced weapons into the Ukraine since 3 Jul, the same Russian Army that somehow cannot secure even the Russian/Ukrainian Army after being told to do it by Putin himself.Quote:
Originally Posted by mirhond
so come on Russian expert mirhond--we are talking about the same Russian Army---right?
Or maybe Russian expert mirhond the Russian Army you are talking about is lost somewhere on the Chinese border using a map and compass to find St. Petersburg?
Russian expert mirhond---noticed you failed to respond to this article which in fact states that yes Russia is providing advanced weapons to the "Russian freedom fighters" in the Donetsk.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
I thought as a Russian expert you had often stated the Russian "freedom fighters" were getting the weapons from corrupt Ukrainian SGTs---that was what you did say ---right mirhond---seems you forgot what you had previously stated about 1000 entries ago---it is hard to get up with ones own comments is it not mirhond?
so if you read the article it appears that;
1. weapons are getting to Russian freedom fighters through corrupt Russian "civilians" but is that a hidden term for the Russian military?---but wait they are not on the border nor "selling weapons" --right mirhond?
2. that the Russian left hand does not know what the Russian right hand is doing
3. or simply Putin is lying to the world
so Russian expert mirhond which of the three items is it or maybe it is all three--so Russian expert mirhond pick one if you can which I know you will not respond to because the article clearly shows Putin is either lying or not in control of the Russian government.
And I know comrade would not admit to that would you?
Ulenspiegel---a simple basic question that I do not see often answered concerning the Crimea and the current Russian view towards the Crimea.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ulenspiegel
Correct me if I am wrong but who in fact "gave" the Crimea "away" and was it not done under a "communist" leader in a "communist legal fashion" in the beginning of say 1954 which if I recall the Soviet Union was still wading through "Stalinism" was it not?
So are we saying that a "communist" country led by not so softie "Communist Party fine tuned in the Stalin days " using "communist" legal terms somehow got it "wrong"?
So now it is up to the Ukraine and the West to do what "take a time out and stand in the corner" and allow another former "communist ie KGB COL" a chance for a "redo" of history say "60" years later?
Does that makes sense to you?
I have not noticed a single German political leader nor a single German newspaper actually challenge the above statement---meaning-- are we the West to give Russia a chance to redo history all because someone in the former Soviet Union who was a "valid leader" "made a stupid 1954 mistake" in the "eyes" of the current 2014 Russian leader?
Is that not what the current Putin argument really is all about if one really reads his statements---a chance to correct in his eyes "a stupid Communist mistake from 1954". So are you in fact stating that the "stupid West who said nothing in 1954" should in fact stand to the side and allow another "stupid mistake in 2014 to be made again"?
Heck using that argument Germany could stand up in 2014 and say "excuse me because that stupid Hitler made a mistake in 1939 we want the western portion of Poland back and the western portion of the Czech Republic back because we did not have a chance to correct that stupid Hitler
back in 1939"---so now we Germany also want our own "redo" of history because we Germany did not have a chance to call Hitler stupid back then and stop him.
You do realize that is exactly what Putin is saying about the Crimea and you do realize the West is allowing a complete "redo" of history just because a single person feels his nose is disjointed by a former Communist leader who he never knew because he was not born in those times although he himself was a Communist so one might think he would have empathy for that historical time period of the Soviet Communist Party?
But again I have never heard and or seen written anywhere that Putin ever revoked his Communist Party membership and the Party still survives so maybe he is a "hidden member still"---or has anyone writing here seen such a revocation notice?
Coming from a rather large shopping Russian tour, driving into Ukrainian land...(Added YouTube clip has been removed by owner)
Wasn't there something of a EU/USA red line about Russian tanks invading Urkaine? It is all well that Putin continues to shoot into Russias goal but a bit of consistency and harsher sanctions might have prevented much current and future bloodshed. Not only in Ukraine, but also when another power might want to tests certain lines.
P.S: In other videos you see VW T5 with long wheel base riding along, good taste I have to add. Would be convenient means of transport for specialists or VIPs from various 'internal' Russian services.
Watch the words from Putin yesterday coming out of Brazil---he is just a tad short of marching in within the next 3-4 days as his rhetoric is climbing in a way not seen before.
IMO he has now begun to believe there will be no further sanctions thus he can now move into the eastern Ukraine under the guise of "peacekeeping".
He is probably correct.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Already happened with Germany, France, UK etc... only a matter of time with the US.Quote:
Originally Posted by kaur
Today was shot down another Ukrainian plane. No wonder, if you watch this video. This video was made in Slovyansk after separatists left the city. If I'm not mistaken, there were 16 boxes of MANPAD missiles (9M39 should be "Igla" missile) in the basement. I suspect that FSB guy Strelkov/Girkin got some with him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYpB-uuE638
1. Sheer speculation.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMA
2. You think Poroshenko&Co are so insane that they will use tactical nukes and make a national suicide? You really believe it? What evidence you have to support this belief?
upd.
Interview with Swedish sniper who fights on Ukrainian side in "Azov" batallion
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR-HgxxCf9c
twitter channel of this guy.
https://twitter.com/MikaelSkillt
Is anyone here knows Swedish good enough to (dis)prove this story?
MAD... mutually assured destructionQuote:
Originally Posted by mirhond
In the case of the US and Russia the US clearly thought the Russians would. This fear of nukes among the US population has been used by good effect by the Russians for many years.
In the case of the Ukraine the Russians have the weapons and the Ukrainians don't. It would go someway to prevent Russian territorial adventurism if the Ukrainians had at least tactical nukes and drew a red-line along their border with regard to a Russian invasion. If there was this nueclear threat - albeit limited - would the Russians be dumb enough to invade? Of course the Ukrainians would have to consider which outcome would be worst, occupation and subjugation of all or some of its territory by their old enemy Russia or massive damage from a nuclear strike. At minimum it would make the Russians think twice.
Great Read.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/russi...tsk-1405296159
Quote:
Russian's 'Imperial Dream' Faces Last Stand in Donetsk
Muscovite Heading Separatist Movement in Ukraine Seeks Return of Empire
....
The prominence of Mr. Borodai and other Russian citizens at the helm of the insurgency makes any negotiated peace with Kiev harder to attain and poses an image problem for Moscow, which has argued that separatism in east Ukraine is a grass-roots movement.
"I have no idea what this person from Moscow is doing here," said a local separatist official, who, like several other senior homegrown activists, found himself sidelined with Mr. Borodai's arrival. "It was a raider's takeover."
Andrei Purgin, a Donetsk man who has been agitating for separatism for more than a decade and now serves as a deputy to Mr. Borodai, says "revolutionaries don't necessarily make good administrators, so we had to rely on specialists from outside, on parachutists so to speak."
...
ok comrade Russian expert mirhond---can you explain just why actual Russian citizens who are not Ukrainian citizens are doing in Donetsk?Quote:
Originally Posted by BrentWilliams
As a Russian expert mirhond you never seem to answer any direct questions concerning Russian owned weapons ie T64 tanks and Russian BM 21s being also in the Donetsk---after you attempted to "convince" us they came from Ukrainian corrupt SGTs.
ok comrade Russian expert mirhond---can you explain to us here just how was it that the Russian TV got this news release SO wrong---a balant attempt at really lying and not caring if it is discovered if you ask me but maybe you should ask Putin whether he lies as well?
I mean really mirhond who is writing these articles in Russia?--cannot be you are you are busy blogging other places
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...slovyansk.html
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/ed...4#.U8WS9mIaySMQuote:
The “DPR’s” core area has receded to the city of Donetsk, hemmed in by Ukrainian-controlled or contested environs. Secessionist troops (augmented with those that withdrew from other areas) are now concentrated in that city of one million people. There, the “DPR” leaders are now embarking on a state-building project on a city-state scale. It is, alongside the LPR, a building block of the Kremlin’s Novorossiya geopolitical and ideological design. Were it to take root (by Russian commission and Western omission, both patent), the “DPR” would become de facto a city-state inside Ukraine, with a short direct supply line to Russia.
More than a local “pro-Russian” project, this is a Russian project actually. Weapons, instructors, financing, geopolitical agenda, and (for the leadership group at least) ideological motivation are all Russian. And given the “DPR” commander’s repeated complaints that the locals are generally unwilling to join his forces (including most recently in Donetsk—see EDM, July 14), it follows that the pro-Russia forces probably include an even higher proportion of fighters from Russia than hitherto assumed.
On July 10, three top “DPR” leaders appeared at a press conference in Donetsk: “prime minister” Aleksandr Boroday, “defense minister” and commander-in-chief Igor Girkin/Strelkov, and newly appointed “deputy prime minister for security matters” Vladimir Antyufeyev (Interfax-Ukraine, July 10; Russkaya Vesna, July 10).
These leaders have nothing in common with Donetsk or the Donbas. They are citizens of Russia with their origins in Moscow, the Pskov region, and Novosibirsk, respectively. They have arrived in Ukraine on special mission in April 2014, February 2014, and July 2014, respectively.