War Plans: United States and Iran
A possible U.S. attack against Iran has been a hot topic in the news for many months now. In some quarters it has become an article of faith that the Bush administration intends to order such an attack before it leaves office. It remains a mystery whether the administration plans an actual attack or whether it is using the threat of attack to try to intimidate Iran -- and thus shape its behavior in Iraq and elsewhere.
http://www.stratfor.com/products/pre...m_campaign=GIR
Sunni vs. Shiite mutual heresy note
Earlier in this thread there is some discussion that seems to indicate that there is fuzziness about the matter of Sunni and Shiite. While there are quite a few sects of Islam (I have an outline map of some of them I made) most are Sunni or Shia. Koran specifies that heretics are to be executed. (Which explains why Taliban were conducting ethnic cleansing operations in Western Afghanistan on Shias there.)
This explains a great deal if you understand it. While Sunni and Shia can be forced into a corner and use certain verses to call for unity against infidels, there is always this fundamental problem. That is why the Sunni world was and is so reluctant to support the USA in Iraq. They know that if anything like fairness ensues that territory will be lost to Sunni rule, probably for centuries if not forever. In Iraq, for centuries, it's mostly been a pretty good deal to be a Sunni. The Shia are convenient to oppress, abuse and squeeze for money. Most cultures are reluctant to give that up, especially when lacking any moral imperative to do so.
They are mutual heretics and both sides have their fanatics who are quite active. The sheep on both sides passively agree to what the fanatics say because it is so obviously true according to scripture. For this reason, they are formally sworn to destroy each other. (This is also why Sunni and Shia from overseas when they see that there are rare mosques in the USA where Sunni and Shia worship together they are shocked if not outraged.)
I agree with Rex. I'd even go a bit farther and
posit that the Sunni - Shia divide in Iraq was in part provoked by western 'expert' and media beating that schism drum a little too heavily.
I realize it's far more complex than that and many other factors, not lest fear of loss versus payback intrude; I'm merely suggesting that all that was to an extent exacerbated by a simplistic western assumption.
That and the IO factor that made that schism into a 'cause' grabbed by both sides that could reinforce the stereotype and used to justify actions. It is possibly noteworthy that Iraqis in exile gather, socialize and marry without regard to that divide...
Bone Casting and Yarrow Stalks
We can better predict the path and aftermath of war than the uncertainty of a nuclear Iran, be it done by think tanks and computers, bones or yarrow, we just don't know. It is a gnawing uncertainty that Europe is hiding from and China is so desperately hoping goes quitely away. It's best to let Israel do the dirty deed and be the scapegoats - the Islamic world couldn't possibly hate them any more than they already do. Given the preemption of Iraqi nuclear capability and whatever non-conventional mischief Syria was developing, it is ludicrous to imagine Israel will stand down while those obnoxious Persians attain tactical nuclear capability.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull
"Israel can destroy Iran's growing nuclear program, a senior IDF officer was quoted as saying by 'The Canadian Jewish News' Web site on Wednesday"
I think the last time thast happened was in
1936. Maybe it was '37. Only excuse I have for that softness is that I was young... :D
I did just happen to broadly agree with what you said. Could always quibble about the edges but I generally try to avoid that (not always successfully :o ). I do think our foreign policy since about 1976 has been below amatuerish. Seems to be getting worse, too...
I'd have to think about your proposal for a bit; see some pluses and minuses. In any event, I suspect the probability of the Congress laying down for that is, for a variety of good and bad reasons, virtually non-existent. :wry:
A Big Smooch of Acquiescence From Obama
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,307516,00.html
"WASHINGTON — Sen. Barack Obama said Friday that as president he would personally negotiate with Iran, offering economic incentives and a chance for peaceful relations if Iranian leaders would forego pursuit of nuclear weapons and support of terrorists."
~send some cheap Mexican labor their way, Obama - call it the Peons for Progress and Partnership Program (PPPP) for those here who hanker for acronyms