The Kurds: a complex dynamic factor
A wide ranging article:
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The middle-east’s power-balance is in flux amid state tensions and political conflicts. In a two-part article, Bill Park - who was recently in Ankara and Erbil - examines the impact of these changes on Turkey and its neighbours, especially the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) of northern Iraq.
In part one, he looks at the Iraqi dimension; in part two, at Syria’s conflict, sectarianism and the wider Kurdish question.
Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/bill-pa...gional-dynamic
I'd not say it was a 'new' factor, just one that persists and every so often raises its profile. I can recall the time when Iran and Israel supported the Kurds in Iraq, then suddenly Iran and Iraq made an agreement, leaving the Kurds somewhat exposed.
Turkey’s Kurdish policy: sleepwalking to crisis
An article by Bill Park, with aspects my media watching had not spotted, e.g.:
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..more than 600 Kurdish prisoners are entering the eighth week of a hunger-strike...
Then there is the political decision to:
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The vigorous crackdown on even relatively moderate Kurdish leaders removes the most likely interlocutors from the political scene, and surely serves to harden Kurdish sentiment
Demography could alter the scene, my emphasis:
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More compelling is the recent estimate by the Turkish statistical institute that there are over 22 million Kurds in Turkey, constituting more than 30% of the republic’s population. Furthermore, the Kurdish birthrate in Turkey is reckoned to be at least twice that of ethnic Turks. Although these figures are fuzzy around the edges, they suggest that within a couple of generations, Kurds could well make up the majority of Turkey’s population. True, many are already assimilated; but can the government really believe that the current campaign of political repression and marginalisation, and violence rather than dialogue, stands any chance of assimilating the remainder of them - ever, let alone before such time as Kurds outnumber Turks?
Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/bill-pa...king-to-crisis
Now they talk Turkey and PKK's leader
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Turkey is holding talks with the jailed head of the PKK Kurdish militant group, Abdullah Ocalan, to push for its disarmament, officials say.....The Turkish prime minister's top political adviser said the government had concluded that it would be unlikely to defeat the outlawed PKK militarily.
Prime ministerial adviser Yalcin Akdogan said the intelligence services were holding discussions with Ocalan:
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The goal is the disarmament of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party)...The government supports any dialogue to this end that could result in a halt to violence. You cannot get results and abolish an organisation only with armed struggle.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20880944
Interesting timing when one looks at the international aspects of the conflict next door in Syria.
The era of armed struggle is over - Ocalan says
A Turkish newspaper report, which opens with:
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Terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) leader Abdullah calan stated that the era of armed struggle to achieve the political goals of the Kurds is over. He was speaking in a meeting with two Kurdish lawmakers, who made rare a visit to the PKK leader, being held on an island prison, on Thursday, signaling that Turkey is negotiating with the terrorist organization over ending a conflict that has killed tens of thousands over the past three decades.
Ocalan in jail since 1999 has power:
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his order, made after a visit from his brother, to end a 68-day hunger strike by PKK terrorists in prisons across Turkey was immediately obeyed.
Link:http://www.todayszaman.com/news-303039-.html
It is curious that an imprisoned leader can make such decisions. How a nation and its opponents in an insurgency / terrorist campaign use law enforcement, with imprisonment, as a tactic to get results is an perplexing question. It took a long time for the UK to think through a LE approach in Northern Ireland, even then it took PIRA just as long. Both Italy and Spain have used the tactic with great effect, but is little understood or documented IMO in English.
The Kurds in Syria: winners
An excellent article on the changing situation in Syria for the small Kurdish minority and the interplay with the PKK who seek a new form self-determination for the Kurds in Turkey:http://syriaintransition.com/2013/01...ns-philosophy/
It opens with:
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One of the few winners of the Syrian uprising are the country’s Kurds. For the first time Syrian Kurds are running their own affairs independently of Damascus under the tutelage of PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan.
(Concludes)In contrast, the Arab opposition has brought death and destruction upon its towns and populations, with no guarantee of a favorable outcome or of having the necessary capacity to administer areas under its control effectively. Once the regime in Damascus collapses, it is doubtful whether the sacrifices of (predominantly) Sunni Arabs will compare favorably with the rewards that they will reap. The Kurds of Syria have taken the cash in hand and waived the rest.
Where are the Syrian Kurds heading amidst the civil war in Syria?
An Open Democracy comment by a Kurd, rather lengthy so no quote found:http://www.opendemocracy.net/zana-kh...l-war-in-syria
I do wonder if the regime starts to gain strength, how will the Kurds respond to the prospect of the army etc appearing close to their enclaves?
Explaining Iraqi Kurdistan’s Policy Towards Syria, Interview With Wladimir van Wilgen
The conflict in neighboring Syria has provided both opportunities and problems for Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Kurdish President Massoud Barzani and to a lesser extent the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) have attempted to forge ties with Syrian Kurds and shape events there to their benefit. These have only met with limited success as the Syrians have their own agendas. To help explain this policy is Wladimir van Wilgenburg who until recently was based in Irbil, and is an analyst for the Jamestown Foundation out of Washington DC, and writes for Al Monitor.
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