Pluses and minuses in EVERYTHING to do with war.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
tequila
But a road without troops to patrol it only lends mobility to the enemy. As Foust points out, the Romans learned this to their chagrin.
There are no absolutes other than getting killed if you screw up too badly. Every action seeks an equal and opposite counter reaction; the key is to anticipate that, plan accordingly and be prepared to adapt.
None of which negates the fact that one most usually does not have all the troops available one would like -- that's always been generally true and is unlikely to change -- and thus, one must have alternatives.
As for the Romans, to include the Kilcullen and Foust citations, there's always only so much one can do with troop constraints -- and, far more immutably, the terrain and people of a place.
Along the lines of I should know better...
I think Bill is hinting at the following:
If HN Security Forces become too proficient, perhaps they begin to focus outside their borders... ergo become destabilizing; or
If their culture doesn't have a strong culture of civilian control, the HN Forces could become the basis of a coup.
Of course these are just assumptions, and I think the least of our concerns at this point.
Couldn't have said it better. Totally agree.
Agree also on what it appears Kilcullen was referring to and that non-HN paramilitary elements can be a benefit but far more importantly, you're correct IMO in that they require very careful planning and handling to preclude a much larger later problem.
On your last para, agree and we can only hope the guys on the ground are working through that... :(
I have heard this brought up many times in many venues
But the one thing that always comes to mind is the question of where exactly one would expect the LOCAL police, fire, paramedics, in otherwords general different parts of any vibrant communities local governance to come from if not from those same forces we are talking about.
It is up in the air about how to make it happen but wouldn't it seem like it has to happen if the actual circumstances for those areas are changing.
In otherwords plan for successful conclusions and react when necessary to changes in the local dynamics.
If 20% go to the IA/IP then how many of the other 80 would be able to transition into the health,construction, sewage, education, etc as anything from doctors and teachers to maintenance and physical labor. These are all areas where the government would find beneficial their integration as it both gets them out of the was security now unemployed category and puts them in the helping to make the local populace more comfortable and thus less likely to cause problems one. Also consider that as long as the upcoming elections do allow more representation into the existing governmental structures there will be more pressure to ensure the funds do make it to the provinces.
It also helps in that the local leaders get to have those they know to hold accountable for what comes from HN gov and the HN Gov has the same benefit the other direction. In a society where bartering takes on whole new meanings this would seem the ultimate way of approaching it.
As for what Maliki and his group choose to do in this regard it is true that anything can be screwed up more easily than it can be fixed. I would think however that they have even more invested in succeeding here now then many may know.
Guess we'll see
Beside's I doubt if the neighborhood watch goes away no matter what their jobs end up being. At least for another gen or so ain't nobody gonna be super trusting