Somalia: A failed state is back from the dead
An optimistic article, indeed rather odd as it claims:
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Yet in 2012, Somalis held their first democratic elections in decades..
For once the comments are worth skimming through.
I looked quickly, we have not missed this democratic election, it was a parliament meeting, it's members nominated by the clans.
Link:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...d-8449310.html
Rethinking Counterinsurgency in Somalia
An article in West Point's CTC's periodical 'Sentinel' on the vagaries of warfare in a clan dominated society:
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To others, this seems like a barely organized chaos, the unpredictability of Somali political behavior. Somalis may seem like they have very limited or tentative buy-in to agreements, and are unreliable and selfish. In fact, leaders, particularly local leaders who are directly responsible to kin and communities, tend to be pragmatic to the extreme.
Link:http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/rethin...ncy-in-somalia
8,500 soldiers and 6,000 police in Mogadishu?
The UK is to co-host a conference on Somalia again, so this article comes as no surprise and our PM, David Cameron, referred to Somalia as an example of development and security being entwined. Ah, but does anyone seriously believe:
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The Somalian government payroll currently includes 8,500 soldiers and 6,000 police in Mogadishu, the capital. Most are hastily drafted members of militias whose ultimate loyalty is to clans or warlord leaders.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ty-forces.html
I don't and way-back there was a post about those trained in Uganda, by an EU mission, promptly defected to a militia or Al-Shabaab upon their return.
Understanding what is going on!
Fascinating insight into how Al-Shabaab - in 2012 (just found by another) - is following their own model of 'divide & rule':
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If a split within the rank and file of Somalia’s al-Shabaab militants was a mere speculation, it has now become a reality, thanks to a lacerating Friday sermon by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, Somalia’s best known holy warrior.
In a rare public dissent, Aweys sharply attacked the organization’s top brass, accusing them of, among other things, monopolizing jihad, globalizing the Somali conflict, assassination of innocent Somalis and, more damningly, acting in a manner unbecoming of upright jihadists.
Link:http://africanarguments.org/2012/04/...by-abdi-aynte/
It can only get.....worse?
A FP report, citing a new UN report and the US academic Ken Menkhaus. The last paragraph:
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In a particularly grim twist, it is America's counterterrorism partners -- corrupt Somali institutions and Kenyan collusion with al-Shabab's financial backers -- that pose a potentially even more lethal threat to American aims. "That Shabab is stronger than people think is interesting and newsworthy," said Menkhaus. But to Menkhaus, the bigger story is the failure of America's allies to maintain a united front against al-Shabab. "Our best friends are busy fighting one another."
The UN is critical of the Kenyans, who they allege have:
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Even worse, Kenyan forces in Kismayo have clashed with clans loyal to the U.S.-backed federal government while colluding with financial backers of al-Shabab in the lucrative and illicit charcoal trade, enabling the Islamist movement to refill its war chest. "The revenue that al-Shabaab currently derives from its Kismayo shareholding, its ... exports and the taxation of ground transportation likely exceeds the estimated U.S. $25 million it generated in charcoal revenue when it controlled Kismayo," the report stated.
Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...abab?page=full
Somalia 20 Years Later – Lessons Learned, Re-learned and Forgotten
Somalia 20 Years Later – Lessons Learned, Re-learned and Forgotten
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High-risk gamble by Shabaab to reverse its prospects
An interesting commentary by Ken Menkhaus, the doyen of US Somali academics, one passage says it all:
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The Westgate attack is the latest sign of the group’s weakness. It was a desperate, high-risk gamble by Shabaab to reverse its prospects. If the deadly attack succeeds in prompting vigilante violence by Kenyan citizens or heavy-handed government reactions against Somali residents, Shabaab stands a chance of recasting itself as the vanguard militia protecting Somalis against external enemies. It desperately needs to reframe the conflict in Somalia as Somalis versus the foreigners, not as Somalis who seek peace and a return to normalcy versus a toxic jihadi movement.
Link:http://thinkprogress.org/security/20...n-desperation/
Note his view that the Somali desire to make money acted as a restraint on Al-Shabaab.
Where are the people? Plus Kismayo report
Some rare footage from Kismayo from the BBC. Curiously the reporter was with troops from Sierra Leone, not Kenya. The film ends with pictures of the charcoal trade:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24195852
I noted the refugee / displaced persons camps were without any aid agency presence.
On the parallel thread 'Mumbai-style attack in Kenya' Bill M. referred to Al-Shabaab holding large swathes of Somali territory - as indicated by the map n the BBC report, but one has to ask how many Somalis actually live in territory controlled by Al-Shabaab today? My own suspicion from faraway is that very few do; anyone who can leave has, invariably to the camps around those cities controlled by ANISOM.
Foden editorial in ‘The Guardian.’
Yesterday The Guardian published an editorial penned by Giles Foden in regards to the Westgate attack [link]. I feel that Foden has a lot more to say here than “food not bombs.” Others of course may disagree.
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[…]
These attacks are part of a spectrum of banditry, with corruption at one end, terrorism at the other, and regular robbery in the middle. Some Kenyans will feel that the conditions in which the attacks have happened have arisen because of economic growth in a vacuum of governance. Money that should have been spent on security and other aspects of national infrastructure has been disappearing for generations.
[…]