Governance is a learned attribute!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dayuhan
Noam Chomsky is a joke without a punchline; I've never seen a thing he wrote on matters political that was worth the bytes it took to distribute it. He does preach rather adeptly to a choir that seems to suspend critical thought as they approach his revelations, but if you're not a member of the choir it's generally pretty pointless. On linguistics it may be another matter; I'm told he knows something there. I'm not in a position to judge.
A transition into democracy or some semblance thereof could have all kinds of results, but the most probable is a long and difficult period for Egypt. Cultivating democracy and getting it to function on soil long occupied by a despots is a very tricky thing indeed. The threat of a takeover by the Muslim Brothers is only one scenario, another (and as likely) one is simple paralysis, with a plethora of poorly differentiated parties and candidates unable to achieve a meaningful mandate or take any meaningful action. Likely outcome might be a military coup, with or without US support, likely with support from a populace tired of dysfunction. These scenarios tend to see popular expectation sky high and government capacity dead low, a frustrating combination.
I agree with Dayuhan - it is silly to claim that the US wants to retain Mubarak. We have to work with folks we don't like sometimes - and as I've said before it is better to have some sort of relationship. Trying to prevent war in the Middle East by giving Egypt or Saudi arms packages isn't the same thing as supporting dictators. And if we had openly dumped Mubarak immediately it would have a significant impact on all of our alliances - even with democracies, for how can our word be trusted if we change our mind at the first sign of trouble? President Bush in particular tried to make democracy a priority in the region. You can scoff if you like, but the man made it the US policy. We've been warning all of these folks publicly and in private to democratize while they can - not our fault they don't listen. And allowing Iran to dominate the region or Israel and Egypt to go to war would not have helped. Suggesting that it would ignores reality.
The big point is the one on governance. It took the US 11 years from declaring independence to figure out its (somewhat) final form of government. For the first few years of that governance was extremely weak and numerous abuses of different groups occurred, to include a lot of score settling between Tories and the patriots... not all of which was politically motivated. A lot of folks didn't want to be involved.* 74 years later a full-up war occurred due to disagreements over flaws in the basic system of governance. It was only in the last 40 years that the equality we supposedly represent was finally available to all, and still in imperfect form at that. We forget our own struggles at our peril.
The problem in Egypt (or any other country emerging from totalitarianism) is that the very elements of society that would form the basis for governance have been repressed or exiled for years, and have no legitimacy. Building the institutions to provide a democratic government takes time... which is why I agree with Dayuhan that Egypt will be messy and probably experience some serious speed bumps. Anyone who thinks that things will be rosy is ignoring our own history here in the US.
That said, I have to say that I still think that folks basically want to be free. If they are constantly worrying about not dying, then they will be less likely to express this desire. But once their economic situation reaches a point where their basic needs (ie their right to "Life") are not constantly threatened and they can "pursue happiness", they will tend to want to enjoy liberty as well. We should also not confuse ourselves into thinking that this will result in their country becoming our ally. At the same time, one would hope that it will result in their not desiring to go to war with us (or their neighbors) and instead focus on improving their economic position in the world. The international system set up by the Allies after WWII has lifted more people out of poverty than anyone could have predicted, and prevented another great power war. Additionally, more countries than ever experience political change as a result of peaceful means and not violence or civil war. All of these are good things- while the US isn't perfect, can anyone name another system of governance/superpower that would have spent as many lives and as much money as we have to set up such global goods?
V/R,
Cliff
* For a good discussion of this, see Shy, John. “The American Revolution: The Military Conflict Considered as a Revolutionary War.” In Essays on the American Revolution. Edited by Stephen G. Kurtz and James H. Hutson, 121–156. Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press, 1973.
Globalization is the cause?
An interesting Thomas P.M. Barnett article over at World Politics Review on Egypt. He lays out some good considerations for the likely winners and losers on Egypt, and why he thinks the US should let Mubarak stay till September.
I'm inclined to agree with him on the youth bulge and economic issues. I'm not sure if waiting till September will work, though I agree that that would probably make the outcome better for all concerned. Big question is how you would enforce any such deal... Like I said before, they need time to build governance.
V/R,
Cliff
